COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[inbetween]

how did they find what in Brazil 8 months ago?

there are loads of countries doing lots of genome analysis on the virus to detect mutations there are websites dedicated to it from all over the globe so Id suggest Grant Schapps is talking bollocks.

auspice

nextstrain.org

Thanks for this link, really interesting!

 

[grunge]

I second this. Same goes for Marvin, grunge, Cityfan, 03 March 2020 and a few others who are clearly knowledgeable on this stuff. Your input is invaluable to a complete idiot on the subject such as myself. In the same way as HP kindly takes her time to post statistics every day, it's much appreciated.

Thanks for the include. but I openly admit a lot of my knowledge comes 2nd hand from the likes of Dr Campbell and then doing my own digging around for info on papers and datasources etc since this kicked off.

I just hope i've not lead people astray in anything.

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland data:

O deaths - but Sunday data so not unusual.

BUT 1504 cases. Most in quite a while. At 6.0% positive.

Yet again a lab issue at LIghthouse suspected - as in the one that led to many cases in Wales vanishing. Being investigated but nobody sure yet.

The total mess our testing system has been for 9 months now is a national scandal that really needs getting a grip. These things are happening way too often at critical times.

Patients in hospital up again by 17 to 1078

And ventilators up again by 1 to 59.

Numbers now starting to go in the wrong direction here too sadly.

 

[Healdplace]

Nicola Sturgeon adds that after weeks of things being under control cases are starting to show signs of rising even without the lab issue and the R number - which has been below 1 for some time - she now believe is about 1.

Scotland DOES have a few cases of the new strain and the actions are aimed at stopping it from spreading.

The strain is so infective it is believed to add 0.4 to the R number on its own,

 

[Healdplace]

The travel ban in and out of Scotland to the rest of the UK will NOT be relaxed even on Christmas day and will stay for the foreseeable future.

From Boxing Day all mainland Scotland will be in Level 4 lockdown.

Schools will be on line learning only to at least 18 January and that will be reviewed so could be extended.

 

[BlueAnorak]

how did they find what in Brazil 8 months ago?

there are loads of countries doing lots of genome analysis on the virus to detect mutations there are websites dedicated to it from all over the globe so Id suggest Grant Schapps is talking bollocks.

auspice

nextstrain.org

Samples are being taken all over the world but places like big pharma and university labs are doing the genetic sequencing. Once a strain is detected that is replicating fast in the overall virus population, then places like Porton Down and the top Big Pharma labs examine the strain in detail.
We have at least 8 places in the UK asside from Porton Down where advanced virus genetics can be analysed - Oxford, Cambridge, Imperial, London STM, Liverpool STM, Manchester, Glasgow CVR and the Perbright Institute. There are probably others.
Porton Down can and does do this on an industrial scale though.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I don't know if this is the exact same test being rolled out to schools in January, or used in Liverpool, but this evaluation in university students of lateral flow fast tests makes them appear not merely useless, but positively dangerous.





You'd expect university testing to be much more reliable than school testing if anything, I think.

There's been quite a lot of scepticism from the scientific community of the value of this sort of testing, and I think this shows why.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Yes its killing people but the point I'm trying to make is it could be a lot lot worse. Imagine Ebola if 1/3 of people who got it didn't become ill.2/3 of the worlds population would now be dead.

Quite difficult for that to happen though because dead people tend not to spread the virus much. That is why this virus is the worst we have seen in 100 years. It combines a high fatality rate with a high R rate. People can by asymptomatic and spread it freely before they themselves become ill, or not.

The fact is we have had Ebola outbreaks and none of them have killed anything like the numbers of people that COVID has. Ebola might be more deadly, but it's clearly less dangerous.

 

[twosips]

I don't know if this is the exact same test being rolled out to schools in January, or used in Liverpool, but this evaluation in university students of lateral flow fast tests makes them appear not merely useless, but positively dangerous.





You'd expect university testing to be much more reliable than school testing if anything, I think.

There's been quite a lot of scepticism from the scientific community of the value of this sort of testing, and I think this shows why.

In theory, if there are this many false positives, doesn't this drastically raise the CFR? Or am I (hopefully) looking in entirely the wrong direction.

 

[lancs blue]

I don't know if this is the exact same test being rolled out to schools in January, or used in Liverpool, but this evaluation in university students of lateral flow fast tests makes them appear not merely useless, but positively dangerous.





You'd expect university testing to be much more reliable than school testing if anything, I think.

There's been quite a lot of scepticism from the scientific community of the value of this sort of testing, and I think this shows why.

Once vaccines are being rolled out doesn't mass testing become something of a waste of resources even if it was more accurate?