COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[BlueAnorak]

The travel ban in and out of Scotland to the rest of the UK will NOT be relaxed even on Christmas day and will stay for the foreseeable future.

From Boxing Day all mainland Scotland will be in Level 4 lockdown.

Schools will be on line learning only to at least 18 January and that will be reviewed so could be extended.

At least she has worked out where the new virus variant is superspreading - schools!

 

[BlueAnorak]

Quite difficult for that to happen though because dead people tend not to spread the virus much. That is why this virus is the worst we have seen in 100 years. It combines a high fatality rate with a high R rate. People can by asymptomatic and spread it freely before they themselves become ill, or not.

The fact is we have had Ebola outbreaks and none of them have killed anything like the numbers of people that COVID has. Ebola might be more deadly, but it's clearly less dangerous.

The point I was trying to make, but clearly failing to make well. This virus is only dangerous because of it's level of asymptomatic spread.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

In theory, if there are this many false positives, doesn't this drastically raise the CFR? Or am I (hopefully) looking in entirely the wrong direction.

It's the 97% of actual positives missed that is more the issue (3% sensitivity = insensitive to 97% of positives)

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Once vaccines are being rolled out doesn't mass testing become something of a waste of resources even if it was more accurate?

Depends how many people die before vaccine rollout is achieved I guess.

 

[twosips]

It's the 97% of actual positives missed that is more the issue (3% sensitivity = insensitive to 97% of positives)

Oh blimey. That's awful.

 

[ell]

how did they find what in Brazil 8 months ago?

there are loads of countries doing lots of genome analysis on the virus to detect mutations there are websites dedicated to it from all over the globe so Id suggest Grant Schapps is talking bollocks.

auspice

nextstrain.org

This "mutant strain" that the press are banging on about. I read we found our first case in September in Kent but the Brazilians have traced the first case back to April.

EDIT for clarity: Does this mean they are analyzing old samples from different countries to "back trace" or something or did it not first get discovered in the UK? Just a bit confused by it all.

 

[Cityfan]

In theory, if there are this many false positives, doesn't this drastically raise the CFR? Or am I (hopefully) looking in entirely the wrong direction.

Unless things have changed I don't think it will make a difference as I think that positives have to be confirmed by PCR to be considered a case.
That was what was said though it might have changed.

 

[Healdplace]

At least she has worked out where the new virus variant is superspreading - schools!

Just been asked if the remote learning is due to superspreading in schools but Nicola Sturgeon denied that they have changed their view of the risk of learning in schools being low. Or that the new strain has changed that but cannot be sure.

Chief medic added no evidence from southern England that schools are transmitting it more as yet. But they are being cautious and watching the data but hope to get schools back to normal as soon as they can.

 

[Healdplace]

Oh and Nicola had asked Boris Johnson to extend the Brexit decision given the current emergency but he had said no. There were concerns over Scottish truckers being able to get to and from Europe given the actions being taken in coming days was her reasoning.

She said she would have to cut off early as a Cobra meeting is about to happen.

 

[artfuldodger]

Unless things have changed I don't think it will make a difference as I think that positives have to be confirmed by PCR to be considered a case.
That was what was said though it might have changed.

Yes they do. My partner tests 3 times per week. Any positive result has to be notified to the employer and a ‘proper’ test taken.