COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[TheRemainsOfTheDave]

Shouldn’t be posting conspiracy theories, mate.

?

 

[Ban-jani]

How do we actually know China have managed it though? Surely there’s still a pretty reasonable chance that whenever they come out of lock down it starts up again.

Only in retrospect will it be obvious which countries chose the most appropriate strategies.

Precisely

 

[kaz7]

I don't think you know how it works. Nobody knows exactly how this virus will play out, but what do you think is best ...

1) Everyone lock themselves away and only a few get immunity through contracting COVID-19, therefore few deaths, but if there's no vaccine later on, the population faces an ever increasing threat because the virus can travel like it does now, and some scientists are suggesting a deadlier second wave of this.
2) Expose some of the population now (but advise the vulnerable to do everything they can to avoid the virus, i.e the same as point 1) so that when the second wave comes it moves through the population more slowly.

Here's some reading, https://www.ovg.ox.ac.uk/news/herd-immunity-how-does-it-work.

Personally I think it's a plan. Even if a vaccine comes along, how quickly can it be made and given to everyone?

everyone has made a vaccine already,it will be ready in 12-18 mths time

 

[SebastianBlue]

?

It was a joke about your saying “virus” rather than “vaccine”, as you meant to say. ;-)

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

I don't think you know how it works. Nobody knows exactly how this virus will play out, but what do you think is best ...

1) Everyone lock themselves away and only a few get immunity through contracting COVID-19, therefore few deaths, but if there's no vaccine later on, the population faces an ever increasing threat because the virus can travel like it does now, and some scientists are suggesting a deadlier second wave of this.
2) Expose some of the population now (but advise the vulnerable to do everything they can to avoid the virus, i.e the same as point 1) so that when the second wave comes it moves through the population more slowly.

Here's some reading, https://www.ovg.ox.ac.uk/news/herd-immunity-how-does-it-work.

Personally I think it's a plan. Even if a vaccine comes along, how quickly can it be made and given to everyone?

Any vaccine is for next year not this. What people don’t seem to get is that this virus is probably going to become endemic now so, even if we managed to get rid of it this year, in all likelihood, it’ll be back next year.

 

[TheRemainsOfTheDave]

but they are not initiating lockdown,they want people to catch it in stages to encourage immunity,the old and vulnerable will catch it and die so long as the rest are allowed to be put in uneccessary situations to get it,if they are trying to protect the vulnerable they have a weird way of showing it,the vulnerable cant be cured of it so they are clogging up the nhs as it is,stop it as much as you can for everyone

there is zero reason to let large scale gatherings continue,people going to work and shopping etc will spread it enough

But the old and vulnerable have been told to isolate themselves. Those with conditions, and I have one or two, need to manage their own situation and get to know the risks to themselves. I think the government are considering what happens if there's no vaccine if this comes round again.

 

[SWP's back]

Having a different response to Italy or Spain does not necessarily mean a worse response.

Did I put a value judgement on it?

 

[Len Rum]

Haven't heard the full conference. An expert on radio 4 was saying that if you banned Cheltenham and had it behind closed doors. Most people who would have gone would either go to a pub/betting shop or other location in order to still enjoy the races and get the feel of the event.
The virus is much less likely to spread outside where there is good airflow, lots of UV light and not continual same group interactions when compared to indoors with poor airflow, little UV and constant sharing of the same space.
So as daft as it sounds. The modelling would say that banning the huge public gatherings BUT STILL having the event and pushing people indoors would cause the virus to spread more rapidly.
No idea what's correct but it does seem like a pretty sound explanation.

Hmm...
On the bus,on the tram, in the packed concourse pre game or in the scrum at the Sumerbee bar post game?.Not so sure.
Also ban the TV showings if people watching indoors is a problem.
These are POLITICAL decisions not scientific ones and I felt that the two medical experts were straying into the political arena which should have been Johnson's role not theirs.

 

[Saddleworth2]

I too this from the conclusions section of the WHO review of the Chinese response to Coronavirus for anyone interested. Good to see they are providing some significant help to Italy in their attempts to get the outbreak under control. I just hope that behind the scenes, their is similar chasing down of infection chains.

'China’s uncompromising and rigorous use of non-pharmaceutical measures to contain transmission of the COVID-19 virus in multiple settings provides vital lessons for the global response. This rather unique and unprecedented public health response in China reversed the escalating cases in both Hubei, where there has been widespread community transmission, and in the importation provinces, where family clusters appear to have driven the outbreak. Although the timing of the outbreak in China has been relatively similar across the country, transmission chains were established in a wide diversity of settings, from megacities in the north and south of the country, to remote communities. However, the rapid adaptation and tailoring of China’s strategy demonstrated that containment can be adapted and successfully operationalized in a wide range of settings. China’s experience strongly supports the efficacy and effectiveness of anchoring COVID19 readiness and rapid response plans in a thorough assessment of local risks and of utilizing a differentiated risk-based containment strategy to manage the outbreak in areas with no cases vs. sporadic cases vs. clusters of cases vs. community-level transmission. Such a strategy is essential for ensuring a sustainable approach while minimizing the socio-economic impact. 3. Much of the global community is not yet ready, in mindset and materially, to implement the measures that have been employed to contain COVID-19 in China. These are the only measures that are currently proven to interrupt or minimize transmission chains in humans. Fundamental to these measures is extremely proactive surveillance to immediately detect cases, very rapid diagnosis and immediate case isolation, rigorous tracking and quarantine of close contacts, and an exceptionally high degree of population understanding and acceptance of these measures. Achieving the high quality of implementation needed to be successful with such measures requires an unusual and unprecedented speed of decision-making by top leaders, operational thoroughness by public health systems, and engagement of society.'

 

[BobKowalski]

No they are not and to say so is to make the situation worse.

Johnson literally said when we initiate lock downs the elderly will be focused upon first.

Only if the system can handle the overall volume. If the system can’t then the elderly and infirm will be low priority for treatment. Even at capacity or just below it is inevitable that at risk categories will become lower priority. To create herd immunity people have to recover. The elderly are less likely to recover and will not be around long enough even if they do.