COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[St.Pauli support]

Turkey closing schools and universities.
They have 1 case.
Maybe...

 

[St.Pauli support]

Any new figures from France anybody?

 

[Uffa]

Go into lockdown now, within 4 weeks when it peaks people will be disobeying the lock down and things will get worse.

You mean when the number of cases peaks, right?
Unless I got it all wrong, that number depends directly on personal contact and doesn't increase autonomously with time. Limiting personal contact would lower/postpone the peak. There wouldn't be that same peak in 4 weeks.

 

[kaz7]

But the old and vulner

that's good, shall we get a sit-down meeting with coronavirus and ask it to come back midway through 2021?

we are trying to kick into the long grass till we have a vaccine,risky

 

[TheRemainsOfTheDave]

[QUOT

there will be a vaccine,there are ones starting trials now

And they guarantee it will work and be made available to everyone before another bout hits the country? I know they got a vaccine ready to deploy for SARS in about 9 months but it wasn't really needed, and some think they may get this one done in 6 months, which would be great. I really think the herd immunity idea is sensible, but still hope the vaccine is ready in record time.

 

[meltonblue]

I have to say I agree. We seem to be wanting to follow a path which is certain to result in millions infected and tens of thousands of deaths if not 100,000+. But we can see in other countries such as South Korea, which started from a much worse base, they seem to have got it much more under control and would seem to be heading for an outcome - at least this year - much, much better than that.

Our approach would seem to be "well it's going to happen so how can we best deal with it" rather than "how can we stop this from happening". The latter might have seemed impossible but China have managed it. On the course we're on, if we only end up with as many deaths as China, it will be a fucking miracle. And yet they have 20x the population we do.

Exactly. I think as a society we’ve got to question if we have the right priorities. We can recover from the hit to the economy or the societal impact, no matter how hard that may be to do and how long it takes. There’s no recovery from losing loved ones, particularly if we haven’t done everything possible to stop it.

 

[urban genie]

You mean when the number of cases peaks, right?
Unless I got it all wrong, that number depends directly on personal contact and doesn't increase autonomously with time. Limiting personal contact would lower/postpone the peak. There wouldn't be that same peak in 4 weeks.

Exactly, the predictive science says it will peak in 4 weeks, experience in other areas suggest that is true due to inaction and not locking down early.

We are planning for the peak rather than reducing the chance of it happening.

 

[blueeeee]

I have seen many videos from China/Iran/Italy and they don’t to me look like scenes caused by a disease that can just be dealt with through select isolation and herd immunity.

If this method is such a simple/good way of coping, then why are we in the minority in terms of how countries are dealing with this?

 

[Len Rum]

This feels like very selective “following the science” to me. I don’t think enough has been explained as to why the thought process here is to gradually build up immunity and accept the consequences rather than try and reverse the flow of the outbreak and attempt to eradicate it that way, which is proving successful elsewhere. I’m also not sure how there’s enough evidence to back up a lot of the assumptions either.
Hard not to be a bit cynical about that update tbh.

Fazzakerley this.
As I said earlier the two scientists with Bojo at the presser should not have been justifying decisions that were political and/or economic.

 

[Blue Hefner]

Looks like I was right at the start of the week, we have been groomed to other the elderly, those with underlying health conditions and the vulnerable

Re Herd Immunity, I’m not scientist but I imagine it takes years and an available vaccination. A quick Google search:

“Herd Immunity and the Flu
Some vaccines are better at producing herd immunity than others. The measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine is 97% effective at preventing measles. So when lots of people in a community get this vaccine, protection rates stay high.

The flu vaccine is a little different. It's only about 40% to 60% effective in any given year. That's because sometimes the virus strains in the vaccine don't exactly match the virus that spreads.”

We haven’t got a fucking chance!