uhh... the 'true' definition of Spring is the sort of stupid question I'm still deliberating in my 40's.
I'm thinking May, maybe April. But any improvement in the weather is likely to have a positive effect. I'm worried that whatever benefit we get from our vaccination efforts, plus residual but temporary immunity, and epidemiological dynamics, will be enough to convince people it's a done deal. Whereas the actual goal is to achieve a high level of ongoing immunity from the vaccination. Anything else will fall apart over time. Can see the same scenario unfolding next winter. Sept, Oct, 'Herd immunity! No fourth wave!' Nov, 'The Fourth wave is here!'.
I'm saying, the government PHS and NHS have a job to do. It's a difficult task. Right now, we are getting positive news. Big targets in delivery. And even speculative comments from Papers and others, on very positive outcomes. First they have to deliver - safe bet is that there will be setbacks. There always are. Moreover, we've not seen this government deliver anything on this scale or complexity. Secondly, the vaccine has to deliver in the field. And then it all has to be maintained.
What's going to happen - I'm afraid I almost see this as inevitable - is that they will keep changing the targets (not always without reason). They'll dress it up, confusingly, positively, in true statistics for salesmen style. The public won't be able to follow clearly. The real number of immunisations will likely be far below some people's perception.
But case numbers, hospital patients and deaths will improve greatly as we move out of winter. And they'll use that to dissuade further scrutiny of the delilvery, and efficacy. Because that's what's happened so far. People want to believe it's being dealt with, they get the idea it is, and those who don't, are left with a mountain of criticism from one quarter for raising doubts - and without the hard information to build an compelling case that there is anything more than 'doubt' and 'worry' at play.
The public perception and desire to return to normality and end the worry will be enough for the Govt to claim a job done.
In other words, if we don't get scrutiny, transparency, or clarity - which we never do - we just won't know until November, into December.
Even widespread antibody testing will only provide partial information of immunity.
If that looks great, people won't ask if that's due to other factors. 'Job done, move on'.
And if it doesn't, it'll be put down to other factors. Or simply ignored as inadequate to justify real concern.
Because like last summer, and autumn, no-one will see the virus. And people won't want to remember it or worry any more. Let alone volunteer for restrictions. No chance.
Without a miracle (government delivering exceptional service - sound realistic?) - and without a real political push for transparency and hard scrutiny (simply not happening as long as Boris has political capital - even if he doesn't, the select committees and so forth have not been penetrating) - that's where we will be.
