COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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mancity1 said:
All valid points albeit some different variables at play between the major economies.

Serious problem hear in Australia is the inability for households to drive down debt per equity despite 20 years of moderate growth but in reality many recessions per capita and few government surpluses in that time.

Low productivity growth per capita and well below required retirement savings per capita given the living age increase in the last 40 years means heaps of stress to come on the public purse.

You can envisage negative cash rates without the market propping Seb Blue in a number of countries and as you say artificial propping by reserve banks can only go so far before unemployment sky rockets.

Our declared rate in Australia has been between 5.7 per cent and 5 per cent for some 13 years now but again per capita and given the decrease in the participation rate and reduced hours for the massive increase in casual labour as work forces across the major economies become less unionised overall spells some troubled financial times which as you said no doubt were spelling downturn so in some sense the acceleration of this is in sinister way I suppose a small positive for the medium outlook.

We a small economy on a world scale of course but impacted significantly by Chinese demands for our minerals especially coal and iron ore.

Despite most households living on the weekly wage to meet outgoings with only super for employees being saved at around 10 per cent of the wage many will be doing it tough in the years to come.
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Great post, mate — very helpful to get an insight in to the current state of Australia specifically, as I don’t not normally analyse economic data from your region.

I’ve written elsewhere on here regarding the main drivers toward the next global economic collapse, so I won’t regurgitate here, but we have been on the road to it since well before 2008, although the response (and subsequent fiscal madness of the last decade) have not helped matters at all.

I have done my best to position my family to survive what is coming as well as we can.

AlgarveBlu said:
Are you traders or work in the city? I was going to suggest put options on the ftse 100 a week ago but felt it was crass to give advice on profiteering on others misfortunes - should of taken my own advice and I could have stopped work for a while
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I am a data scientist primarily working in economic forecasting, and the sort of volatility we have been seeing for the past four years, now magnified with further market uncertainty from this outbreak, makes my job that much more difficult.

I have been able to leverage a few positions in the last month or so to hopefully help cover some of the incoming losses that I (we) will not be able to avoid, but my ethical stance won’t let me profit off this “correction” as much as others.
 
AlgarveBlu said:
Are you traders or work in the city? I was going to suggest put options on the ftse 100 a week ago but felt it was crass to give advice on profiteering on others misfortunes - should of taken my own advice and I could have stopped work for a while
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Finance yes. There will be some people making a mint off this fall and then the recovery when it comes. Some shares are looking very cheap based on the dividend the pay.
 
Wonder if they will start to cancel sporting events and the like. I know they are doing this worldwide but not in the UK so far. When does the tipping point come? Will they close schools? It seems the authorities are really worrying about this, yet the stats don’t really suggest they should be. Are they keeping stuff from us do you think?
 
Millwallawayveteran1988 said:
Wonder if they will start to cancel sporting events and the like. I know they are doing this worldwide but not in the UK so far. When does the tipping point come? Will they close schools? It seems the authorities are really worrying about this, yet the stats don’t really suggest they should be. Are they keeping stuff from us do you think?
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Simple answer: yes.

As much as the current response is impacting the global economy, I actually think it has been highly managed in a collective attempt to reduce (and stagger) the damage as much as possible, hence why the WHO still have not declared a global pandemic, even though it obviously already is.
 
Millwallawayveteran1988 said:
Wonder if they will start to cancel sporting events and the like. I know they are doing this worldwide but not in the UK so far. When does the tipping point come? Will they close schools? It seems the authorities are really worrying about this, yet the stats don’t really suggest they should be. Are they keeping stuff from us do you think?
Click to expand...
up to now i think the UK has dealt very well with the problem, However it will get to the point give a week or two weeks or maybe three it will be totally out of controll,then in that situation we might see the MOD managing boarders between towns to contain the virus,its all about slowing it down unil either a vacine is found or it dies out by itself, there are massive losses on the markets and money talks and i firmy beleive its being played down for this reason,once the schools have closed then the productivity of the country has been afected because people need to stay off to mind the kids,this is why were hearing on the news today that schools will remain open.its the old 'dont panic',,also we know China has been doping the death figures and reports are that its well in excess of 100k, so what next i really dont know we have to watch the situation day to day but when the infected % rises in a pattern of 200 then 400,800 and so on then its time we all have to make a decision.me il make sure i have enough beers and food in and lock the doors and fuck work off because im not young so my risks are greater than a 20 year old
 
They showed a bit of footage inside the hotel and mentioned that they put on a buffet for the guests.... I mean the buffet is one of the greatest ways to spread a virus everybody handles the same tongs to put your food of your plates.... f****** insane.
 
marco said:
up to now i think the UK has dealt very well with the problem, However it will get to the point give a week or two weeks or maybe three it will be totally out of controll,then in that situation we might see the MOD managing boarders between towns to contain the virus,its all about slowing it down unil either a vacine is found or it dies out by itself, there are massive losses on the markets and money talks and i firmy beleive its being played down for this reason,once the schools have closed then the productivity of the country has been afected because people need to stay off to mind the kids,this is why were hearing on the news today that schools will remain open.its the old 'dont panic',,also we know China has been doping the death figures and reports are that its well in excess of 100k, so what next i really dont know we have to watch the situation day to day but when the infected % rises in a pattern of 200 then 400,800 and so on then its time we all have to make a decision.me il make sure i have enough beers and food in and lock the doors and fuck work off because im not young so my risks are greater than a 20 year old
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Is it being played down though.?
Most people think the media is blowing this out of all proportion. Creating almost a panic situation.
Which then leads to people not booking flights or cruisers or hotels and actually creating a kind of recession financially speaking.
 
nimrod said:
Is it being played down though.?
Most people think the media is blowing this out of all proportion. Creating almost a panic situation.
Which then leads to people not booking flights or cruisers or hotels and actually creating a kind of recession financially speaking.
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I don’t think media is playing it down — as has been said by others on here, their job is to make people frightened of something so they read/watch their coverage and thus see the paid adverts.

But world health organisations and governments are absolutely playing it down. There is no other reason, for instance, that the WHO has not yet declared a global pandemic (as this already easily meets their own definition).
 
marco said:
up to now i think the UK has dealt very well with the problem, However it will get to the point give a week or two weeks or maybe three it will be totally out of controll,then in that situation we might see the MOD managing boarders between towns to contain the virus,its all about slowing it down unil either a vacine is found or it dies out by itself, there are massive losses on the markets and money talks and i firmy beleive its being played down for this reason,once the schools have closed then the productivity of the country has been afected because people need to stay off to mind the kids,this is why were hearing on the news today that schools will remain open.its the old 'dont panic',,also we know China has been doping the death figures and reports are that its well in excess of 100k, so what next i really dont know we have to watch the situation day to day but when the infected % rises in a pattern of 200 then 400,800 and so on then its time we all have to make a decision.me il make sure i have enough beers and food in and lock the doors and fuck work off because im not young so my risks are greater than a 20 year old
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I eat out most nights, but I’m planning a big shop of non-perishables tomorrow. Very little downside to so doing. Think this could unravel quite quickly.
 
nimrod said:
Is it being played down though.?
Most people think the media is blowing this out of all proportion. Creating almost a panic situation.
Which then leads to people not booking flights or cruisers or hotels and actually creating a kind of recession financially speaking.
Click to expand...

Some great holiday bargains out there people should fill their boots, at this time it’s a mass over reaction.
 
nimrod said:
Is it being played down though.?
Most people think the media is blowing this out of all proportion. Creating almost a panic situation.
Which then leads to people not booking flights or cruisers or hotels and actually creating a kind of recession financially speaking.
Click to expand...
well yes,,who can you beleive,the media or the Government,,i'd say neither, like i said soon all of us will have to make a decision either carry on as we are or lock down, i think better to be prepaired
 
New York's Dow Jones has recorded its biggest one-day points fall in history as the coronavirus stock market sell-off gathered pace.

The Wall Street index fell by 1,191 points, or 4.4%, as share indices across the globe entered "correction" territory amid heightening worries about the economic impact of the outbreak.


It put US markets on course for their worst week since October 2008 - at the height of the financial crisis.

Earlier on Thursday, the FTSE-100 suffered its biggest one day fall in percentage terms since August 2015.

Markets in London, Europe, and the US were in so-called "correction" territory after the latest declines - meaning they have lost more than 10% of values off their most recent highs.


The FTSE's fall of 3.49%, or 246 points, knocked £62bn off the combined value of the its constituent companies - and meant they are £152bn down over the course of the week so far.


The latest falls came after declines in Asia overnight linked to the latest COVID-19 developments including confirmation that a woman had been reinfected in Japan.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-stock-markets-taken-sick-again-on-speed-of-spread-11944193
 
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