COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Not sure where he is getting the 30% from but he's saying 30% of the global population likely to get this in the 1st year if it does become a full pandemic. at 1 % thats 23m people, at 2% thats about 46m people dead by the end of the year.



WHO still claiming not a pandemic and can still be contained.
 
city2 said:
84000 cases world wide 3000 deaths, this doesn’t add up to a pandemic are the powers that be building this up to something it isn’t, it’s been around 6/7 weeks but you would think the end of the world is here. I believe they are not telling us the bigger picture and how long does it take to find a cure.
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At the moment most cases are traceable to a source (the patient has been in an area with an epidemic or has been in contact with someone who has). When we start seeing more cases of no clear lineage of infection in two or more continents, then it will then probably be declared a pandemic. This will probably happen but hopefully only when we have a vaccine to stop it in its tracks.

The way the governments and world agencies around the world are coordinating their knowledge is remarkable but of course no comfort to those that have died. Without this setup we'd probably be facing Spanish flu proportions. Of course if the virus mutates .....
 
squirtyflower said:
It’s only money, and listening to Child in Time live right now makes up for any loss.
Still beans are no substitute for steak.

I’ve been compiling a list of foods that I could stockpile after following your input to the Coronavirus thread for the last month. We had been looking at a late deal to going skiing next week in Austria, but it’s too close to Italy, and we have to go through Innsbruck. So I said let’s drive but Mrs sf doesn’t fancy being stuck overseas if it all goes pear shaped.

Booked tickets for the Monaco Grand Prix last Monday but haven’t paid for them yet as I’m not sure if we’d get the money back if it was cancelled.
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@SebastianBlue
All sound decisions in my opinion — we’ve already stocked freeze-dried ‘camp’ meals (which just require boiled water to cook to eat; we have a camp stove and fuel block for that if we are unable to use the proper one), canned foods, water, and low ABV beer (which will keep much longer than water) just to be prepared. We’re not preppers or anything like that, but we do have a special situation that needs to be mitigated, so it is better to err on the side of caution. Unfortunately for me, there are certain things that cannot be stockpiled at home and, if there is a disruption to medical services, it will probably not go particularly well, but there is very little that can be done about that, so we just do our best to mitigate as much as we can.

And I would be very surprised if they don’t cancel the Monaco Grand Prix, especially given the current scrutiny of the decision not to cancel the Australian Grand Prix in the face of the outbreak and related travel restrictions. I understand the FIA’s desire to limit economic impact but if the virus is allowed to spread freely it will take care of that itself, anyway.

But I suppose this is more a discussion for the COVID-19 thread.

@squirtyflower says
Are you expecting disruption to the energy supplies, with the dry meals and the camping stoves?
 
city2 said:
84000 cases world wide 3000 deaths, this doesn’t add up to a pandemic are the powers that be building this up to something it isn’t, it’s been around 6/7 weeks but you would think the end of the world is here. I believe they are not telling us the bigger picture and how long does it take to find a cure.
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Mass hysteria. Of course this gives Trump some ammo over China and Iran. When ebola was all over the news, the panic was setting in a bit but magically they found a cure. A lot of these cases people end up dying of pneumonia or something.

In the grand scheme of things it has nothing on cancer, heart disease, diabetes, malaria etc
 
grunge said:
Not sure where he is getting the 30% from but he's saying 30% of the global population likely to get this in the 1st year if it does become a full pandemic. at 1 % thats 23m people, at 2% thats about 46m people dead by the end of the year.



WHO still claiming not a pandemic and can still be contained.
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I am fairly sure that is based on a few university research group projections based on current metrics, which could be well off the actual rates (both higher or lower), but it’s the best we can do right now, hence why he shared it.

It is amazing that the WHO has not yet declared the pandemic, though, even given they are obviously trying to reduce public panic, as this outbreak has long since fulfilled their own definition.

The below is a decent review of why they may not have yet.

https://www.newscientist.com/articl...ho-officially-declare-a-coronavirus-pandemic/
 
squirtyflower said:
@SebastianBlue
All sound decisions in my opinion — we’ve already stocked freeze-dried ‘camp’ meals (which just require boiled water to cook to eat; we have a camp stove and fuel block for that if we are unable to use the proper one), canned foods, water, and low ABV beer (which will keep much longer than water) just to be prepared. We’re not preppers or anything like that, but we do have a special situation that needs to be mitigated, so it is better to err on the side of caution. Unfortunately for me, there are certain things that cannot be stockpiled at home and, if there is a disruption to medical services, it will probably not go particularly well, but there is very little that can be done about that, so we just do our best to mitigate as much as we can.

And I would be very surprised if they don’t cancel the Monaco Grand Prix, especially given the current scrutiny of the decision not to cancel the Australian Grand Prix in the face of the outbreak and related travel restrictions. I understand the FIA’s desire to limit economic impact but if the virus is allowed to spread freely it will take care of that itself, anyway.

But I suppose this is more a discussion for the COVID-19 thread.

@squirtyflower says
Are you expecting disruption to the energy supplies, with the dry meals and the camping stoves?
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It is very possible, as most of the systems still require considerable direct maintenance to ensure continuity of operations. Any disruption preventing custodial and technical staff from maintaining the transmission systems (for electricity or natural gas, in the case of cooking appliances) will see energy supply impacted fairly quickly. And some of the issues arising from that will take considerable time to fix (i.e. fast break, slow fix). That is unfortunately especially the case in the area we current live in the US, which has some of the oldest energy distribution infrastructure in the country, most underfunded maintenance/development, and some of the harshest conditions during the winter which often lead to service outages even with full employment of resources, so you can imagine what would happen with more limited resourcing (when, say, staff have been prohibited from leaving their homes for extended periods of time).

But that is still a way off, thankfully. We just don’t want to wait until things really take a turn to stock provisions, especially as most food markets (and, really, most business full stop) operate on a just-in-time inventory (production) model, which means it only takes two or three days of supply chain disruption to lead to product shortages or outages. And the disruptions compound the longer they last, causing further magnification of the shortages/outages and a longer lead time to correct them. If you want to see examples of how quickly food shortages can occur, check some of the articles about the hurricane in Puerto Rico or even the current situation in China (and that is with the Chinese government having far more centralised control over supply chain than most other nations in the world, meaning they can mitigate possible disruptions much better than we could).

All of that is to say, there is just little downside to spending a small amount of money to have at least a few weeks of food (which can be extended to a month or more with rationing) on hand now just in case things take a turn, and quite a downside for not doing so. You can always eat that food later if nothing actually happens, or keep it stored for other potential emergencies. We also have camping gear in 75 litre packs (as we like to do that for recreation) which is doubly useful as “go bags” in the case of emergency. We try to buy things that can be used for multiple purposes, as it’s just sensible to be prepared.
 
mancityvstoke said:
I've just bought 3 cans of beans and sausages....I'm well prepared

Or if it does kick off I'm going round squirtyflowers gaff
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Three tins of beans and a pack of sausages, or three tins with those little sausages in the tins?
 
Really hope we can get a grip of this thing before it mutates into something truly nasty. China really fucked everyone by trying to keep this quiet at the very beginning.
 
Barcon said:
Rip off mate. $20 per box. When I opened it up there were ten in there. I made the mistake of telling the wife before I opened it.
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Never tell the wife about bacon wrapped anything.

It only ends in heartache.

Or heartburn.

Or both.
 
I have been advised to stop using Prednisone for my Crohns disease as it in an immunosuppressant. Thankfully I am tapering down anyway and only had a week to do on the course. My symptoms are under control but I better stock up on loo roll.

Feel sorry for those who can't stop treatments immediately.

Something like this would have my immune system dining on my insides to an epic proportion.
 
Nightmare Walking said:
I have been advised to stop using Prednisone for my Crohns disease as it in an immunosuppressant. Thankfully I am tapering down anyway and only had a week to do on the course. My symptoms are under control but I better stock up on loo roll.

Feel sorry for those who can't stop treatments immediately.

Something like this would have my immune system dining on my insides to an epic proportion.
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Yes, it is a very real concern for many of us, unfortunately.

Glad that you have gotten things under control, though!
 
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