COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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There are levels though. As much as mass hysteria isn't wanted, neither is people thinking this is no different to the seasonal flu.

This needs everyone to take action in order to combat it and everyone to think selflessly rather than selfishly. People personally may be low risk if they were to get it, they could well be carriers and pass it on to someone at higher risk before they even realise though.

No one should be predominately thinking "I'll be fine". People should be thinking "what do I need to do to make sure everyone is at as low a risk as possible, not just me".
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
It's about the same really for healthy young and mid aged people. There isnt a signifciant difference, it's not orders of magnitude and no doubt the figures are not that accurate as yet as many people don't even go to the doc's with normal flu. It's posts like this that cause the panic the media are causing imo.
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It’s posts like this that demonstrate utter ignorance of the facts.
 
SWP's back said:
I just want to repeat this so we are on the same page:

3.4% Covid across the population of those infected

0.1% Flu across the population of this infected.
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Flu is well-characterised. COVID19 is not. We don't know the infection rates therefore we don't know the fatality rates.
 
If you don't have a vaccine, and you don't have effective drug treatment, then isolation is the only defence to break transmission. But you need to test people to know who to isolate. That is what needs to happen. Korea did that.
 
Marvin said:
Flu is well-characterised. COVID19 is not. We don't know the infection rates therefore we don't know the fatality rates.
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Whilst we won’t get an accurate figure for the mortality rate until it’s over it is possible to get a reasonable estimate from what’s happened in China so far now that the number of new cases is down to a trickle and that estimate is good enough for everyone to know that it’s at least an order of magnitude greater than seasonal flu.
 
SWP's back said:
Oh my fucking God!!

of course there’s a significant difference. The 0.1% for Flu is across EVERYONE THAT IS INFECTED just like the 3.4% for Covid-19 is.

So if you’re under 40 and get Flu, you don’t have a 0.1% of dying, you have a 0.01% chance of dying (compared with 0.2% of Covid-19, more than double an order of magnitude).

It is at least an order of magnitude more lethal. I don’t know any other way of explaining this to you, you can’t compare under 40’s with Covid-19 against the “whole population” that gets Flu and say they’re comparable. They’re not.

It’s posts like yours that are so fucking frustrating because you don’t understand maths, epidemiology, fatality rates across demographics and, it seems, basic English comprehension.

Italy are not plunging themselves into a recession for something only as lethal as the fucking Flu.
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We shall have to agree to dissagree on this. I am aware of the issues, and am concerned I just dont think we should be as alarmist as you are. I would ask you to calm down a bit theres no need to swear at me.
 
SWP's back said:
Oh my fucking God!!

of course there’s a significant difference. The 0.1% for Flu is across EVERYONE THAT IS INFECTED just like the 3.4% for Covid-19 is.

So if you’re under 40 and get Flu, you don’t have a 0.1% of dying, you have a 0.01% chance of dying (compared with 0.2% of Covid-19, more than double an order of magnitude).

It is at least an order of magnitude more lethal. I don’t know any other way of explaining this to you, you can’t compare under 40’s with Covid-19 against the “whole population” that gets Flu and say they’re comparable. They’re not.

It’s posts like yours that are so fucking frustrating because you don’t understand maths, epidemiology, fatality rates across demographics and, it seems, basic English comprehension.

Italy are not plunging themselves into a recession for something only as lethal as the fucking Flu.
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Spot on, well said.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
We shall have to agree to dissagree on this. I am aware of the issues, and am concerned I just dont think we should be as alarmist as you are. I would ask you to calm down a bit theres no need to swear at me.
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It’s not opinions you’re disagreeing on. It’s cold hard facts.
You’re wrong with your comparison of younger population mortality rates between flu and Covid-19, and that’s not an opinion. The evidence is there to look at with your own eyes.
 
Marvin said:
Flu is well-characterised. COVID19 is not. We don't know the infection rates therefore we don't know the fatality rates.
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Well said. Early days so far. Far too many anomalies between data sets and countries imo. This was emphasised by the chief medical officer this week when he also said he thought the overall death rate in this country would be about 1%.
 
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SWP's back said:
No it doesn’t pal. Flu is 0.1% (across all of those that get it - including young and old, again with the oldest worst affected).

Covid-19 so far:

AGEDEATH RATE

*80+ years old 14.8%
70-79 years old 8.0%
60-69 years old 3.6%
50-59 years old 1.3%
40-49 years old 0.4%
30-39 years old 0.2%
20-29 years old 0.2%
10-19 years old 0.2%
0-9 years old no fatalities

at best it’s twice as deadly (if you’re under 40) against the average Flu fatality rate - which would of course be comparing apples with oranges as Flu’s 0.1% fatality rate includes all the age ranges as well.

To compare apples with apples then it’s 3.4% vs 0.1% so far.

Then there’s underlying health conditions which raise your chances as well (or lower them depending on your point of view):

PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONDEATH RATE*

Cardiovascular disease 10.5%
Diabetes 7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease 6.3%
Hypertension 6.0%
Cancer 5.6%
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Good post, that. Not seen it in that much detail until now.
 
Ban-jani said:
Germany 800 cases and 0 deaths so far.

Hopefully a sign that if you do the right things with patients they will survive.
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Interesting one this because Germany has the fourth largest elderly population in the world at 21%. I was thinking that the problem in Italy was because of the 23% elderly population (#2 in the world).

Of course it could be that the elderly population of Germany has been less exposed to it than in Italy so far. Which is why making projections on what will happen is too early in the life of this virus because there hasn’t been the mass exposure to it yet.

It could be that if it gets a grip in Germany, they could have similar death rates as Italy as it gets to their elderly more widely.

The United Kingdom is 26th in the list at 18% so we are quite high up too.
 
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