COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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SWP's back said:
Nah Kevin Horlock’s wand says everything will be ok so long as we get an April heatwave that lasts a month.
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We normally get a bit of a heatwave in May. I'm not sure this heat will kill it is entirely accurate though as hot countries are seeing it prosper too.
 
blue b4 the moon said:
We have experts and bollocks talkers on every subject imaginable mate you only just realised.
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Weirdly for the point you’re trying to prove, the “bollocks talkers” are quoting real figures and experts. Where as the ones saying everything will be ok once the sun comes out are basing it on absolutely fuck all.
 
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ballinio said:
Staggering how blasé about this our government is , Cheltenham & football should be cancelled but when they’re still allowing planes from Italy into the country you know we’ve no chance , money rules .
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so what would you do with UK citizens scheduled to return from Italy?
 
MCFC1993 said:

'Good thread' from the mouth of a doctor in northern Italy on the dire situation there.
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Same things being said by other doctors currently working in Lombardy. The Italian association for anesthetists and intensive care has advised to prioritise those with "better chance at surviving" in the event of rationing, so not necessarily give ICU as first come, first serve. Rationing of ICU can obviously only be operated after they've made any effort possible to increase the resources for ICU (e.g. beds) in the hospital and after they've evaluated the possibility of transferring the patients to better-equipped health centres.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
Our public health doctors don't have a 'dog in the fight' either. What no one is discussing is when you stop quarantine, once you have started? This virus could go on for months, it could be seasonal and be back in November/December, or it could disappear in the spring. As with the question I posed about Italy, assume we lock down the UK for 3 weeks, what next? Stop any travel in or out? Assuming not, what happens when someone travels in from a place that then declares it has virus a week later? Shutdown for 3 weeks again? If we don't time this right, we could be doing it in perpetuity.
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This thought has crossed my mind, China are still in a pretty major lockdown 2 months in, they are looking to start to get back to work, yet its only just starting to grow outside of china. its inevitable they will get re infected when they do come out of lockdown.

lockdown at this point is more to delay it so medical systems are not totally overloaded until a vaccine is available. which is best case early next year.
 
inbetween said:
Your risk of infection currently is if you put 70 million people in a room, what are you chances of bumping into 300 of those infected people?

The answer is 0.00042%.

It is almost guaranteed that not a single person who attends Cheltenham will have Coronavirus and even then that single person would have to sneeze on you.
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This does seem to be the essence of what they are saying, its almost a case of brinkmanship to say at what point the probability of such gatherings composing an infected person meets to economic and social impact of cancelling.

If one person at Cheltenham was infected and it happened to be one of the course bookies, they could handle cash exchanges with 1000 people a day, if that then transmits at 50% its an 2000 cases scattered across UK & Ireland next week. So although the probability is low at the moment due to low likelihood of affected persons being presence the risk of transmission if that low probability is met is very high.

I would like to think official policy is being derived by clever folks who are experts in the field projecting when these curves might intersect each other rather than political/economical/egotistical reasoning but the apparent lack of direction action and clear communication seems to make that a fanciful wish.
 
inbetween said:
Your risk of infection currently is if you put 70 million people in a room, what are you chances of bumping into 300 of those infected people?

The answer is 0.00042%.

It is almost guaranteed that not a single person who attends Cheltenham will have Coronavirus and even then that single person would have to sneeze on you.
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I'm not sure how you can almost guarantee how nobody at Cheltenham will have it, but regardless of that, being directly coughed or sneezed onto is only the thin end of the wedge and it's irresponsible to suggest otherwise. That single person can cough into their hand, a few seconds later they're touching a door handle that thousands of other people will touch over the course of the day. They might hand over some money to a bookie or a bar person who then pulls a pint that somebody else drinks from. They don't have to cough or sneeze directly onto anyone to spread it around.

You could come into contact with the germs on your way to the event and then spread them around without even having it yourself. I appreciate by this logic you could argue that nobody should be going anywhere but I think it's perfectly reasonable to suggest that events that attract large crowds of people in close proximity to people are likely to result in the virus spreading more rapidly. Hard to believe that we won't see these kind of events go behind closed doors eventually.
 
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