COVID-19 — Coronavirus

Status
Not open for further replies.
grunge said:
Not sure what your classing as the start of a 2nd wave, local flare ups without preventative measures is the start of a second wave. its countries controlling it to prevent it taking hold and spreading.
Click to expand...
Not the same thing locking down local flare ups will prevent second waves. Not tracing and locking local flare ups will cause a second wave.
 
mexico1970 said:
I don't know anyone who has been tested yet, tracing and testing isn't being done so it will never be a measure to fight it will it?
Click to expand...
Do you know anyone who has it and not been tested. If not no reason why anyone you know would have been traced and tested.
 
blueparrot said:
Do you know anyone who has it and not been tested. If not no reason why anyone you know would have been traced and tested.
Click to expand...

I have known people to have shown signs have isolated and haven't been tested, there are droves of people out there who have had it and haven't been tested, we can't stop a second wave if we don't start testing people more with reliable tests.
 
grunge said:
thats exactly what I said?

local flare ups are the very start of a 2nd wave unless its stopped at the source.
Click to expand...

Local flare ups currently are most likely a continuation of the current wave. There is no proof that a huge second wave is currently starting. For it to be a secone wave, we have to see huge numbers.
 
twosips said:
Local flare ups currently are most likely a continuation of the current wave. There is no proof that a huge second wave is currently starting. For it to be a secone wave, we have to see huge numbers.
Click to expand...

its Symantics I guess.

to me, locking down to prevent massive community spread is because there are signs a flare up is occurring. a flare up is a start of a 2nd wave unless measures are taken.
 
Healdplace said:
That Spanish trick of pinning deaths reported to only those that occurred the day before is dangerous. It could be a factor in other nations judging if you are safe to visit.

So Spain welcomes tourists as it has zero deaths. But Britain is unsafe to visit as it has hundreds.

If we used the Spanish version we (or rather England only) would not have had a single day above 36 in almost the last 3 weeks. And the average for the last 6 days would be about18.


Not the much more transparent figures we post.

That is the problem with arguing Britain has the worst record for deaths. It is bad yes But we are at least good at making the numbers available to others so a true comparison is possible.

Though it took Boris a while to see that mattered.
Click to expand...

almost all tourist countries are heavily lying about their numbers. Croatia suddenly became corona free overnight as soon as summer came close because their economy will be utterly fucked for lack of tourism money.
 
Scottish data 14 deaths. 29 new cases only. 995 in hospital ( 26 down and breaking that psychological barrier of a thousand) and only 23 in ICU (down another 5 on yesterday and way down on over 200 early April).
 
mexico1970 said:
I have known people to have shown signs have isolated and haven't been tested, there are droves of people out there who have had it and haven't been tested, we can't stop a second wave if we don't start testing people more with reliable tests.
Click to expand...
Another wrong inference.
You know people who have had symptoms of a variety of seasonal viruses.
That is all.
No one has a scooby about how many of the population have had it and not been ill enough to be tested.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
It was full of could be, might do and perhaps and was yet more modelling data, so not RCT, peer reviewed evidence. The good thing about it was that it emphasised that masks without hand washing and social distancing are mostly useless so let’s hope this compulsory mask wearing isn’t being implemented so we can become sardine like on trains, tubes and buses.

Finally, if the modelling data presented by Karl Friston proves to be true, none of it will matter. His team predicted the the peak in London and the fall off and is based on 80% of the population not actually being susceptible to the virus which was why exponential growth has never been a realistic theory.
https://unherd.com/2020/06/karl-friston-up-to-80-not-even-susceptible-to-covid-19/

This compliments the work of Michael Levitt who modelled 60000 U.K. deaths, based on the Diamond Princess and how a Ferguson’s modelling was always flawed.
https://unherd.com/thepost/nobel-pr...-19-epidemic-was-never-exponential/?=refinnar
Click to expand...
I guess Karl Friston's theories will be proven or not proven in Brazil as they're not doing much to stop the spread of the disease.
Brazil has a population of 209.5m so by his theory only 41.9m are vulnerable to the disease and of that 41.9m, a maximum of 0.05% or 209,500 will die.
Brazil has had 615,870 official cases. The actual number is probably 10x this so this figure so there is along way to go yet. Deaths are probably unreliable but are probably at least 2x, maybe 3x the official figures. So you can't calculate anything only in retrospect when peak cases occurs and go N days on from this to around half of total deaths.
(N will probably be around 14 days, the average time to death from infection in Brazil with so few ICU beds.)
What a horrible thing to watch unfold to prove or disprove a theory.
 
denislawsbackheel said:
Another wrong inference.
You know people who have had symptoms of a variety of seasonal viruses.
That is all.
No one has a scooby about how many of the population have had it and not been ill enough to be tested.
Click to expand...
When antibody tests start being rolled out we will find out. Anybody who was ill develops antibodies and these last at least 5 months (from studies in the far east). If SARS2 is anything like SARS or MERS then antibodies will only last 2 years or so.
 
Has anyone started buying masks yet? If I think I might have a look for a few in case I travel on public transport over the next few weeks (or longer).
Possibly whilst running too although I tend to run in the evening and barely pass anyone (and give wide berth if so). Couple of quid from the likes of Screwfix (sadly not in Raw Denim or linen unfortunately).
 
mexico1970 said:
We could have been wearing masks a long time ago but some experts say that we shouldn't, the advice that we are being given is changing like the wind.
Click to expand...
To be fair to them they were trying to protect NHS supplies of face masks.
They should have told us wear other face covering though.
 
Incidently the health care antibody test figures are in across West Midlands hospitals.
20% of health care professionals have had it.
My daughters hospital is slightly higher than most at 24% and she herself has antibodies.
She was sick in mid March - before she went back to work (part-time) in mid April after the birth of my youngest grandson in May 2019.
 
Last edited:
BlueAnorak said:
Incidently the health care antibody test figures are in across West Midlands hospitals.
20% of health care professionals have had it.
My daughters hospital is slightly higher than that at 24% and she herself has antibodies.
Click to expand...

You'd possibly expect the numbers of those who work in health care or such front line roles to have a greater antibody population than the general public I suppose. Interesting nonetheless.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top