COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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A piece on the state of play with vaccines:
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-clinical-trials-speed-safety

From my limited understanding of it, we should know some time Sept-Nov if the respective Oxford/Moderna/Pfizer candidates will work- not necessarily in that order. I’ve read ‘encouraging’ reports about all three in the past fortnight, but it’s hard to know if they are all genuinely happy or simply bolstering their position and stock prices. All seem to be at various stages of their Phase 3 trials.
 
ohfk said:
Let me first make this clear.. I'm not wishing more deaths on the US or trying to be a doom monger. I'm trying to understand how a couple of months ago, with an average of around 30k to 35k new cases /day they were getting well in excess of 2000 deaths/day. Yet now with 60k to 70k new cases/day they consistently get under 1000 deaths/day. florida in particular with twice the population of NY also (I'm guessing) but a higher average aged demographic and similar new cases to NY are way down on deaths/day

i may have missed an obvious explanation for this, apologies if so. It's at least a 4 fold decrease in deaths. are they not giving the correct figures or am i missing something?

To reiterate, the first line of this OP is really important.
Click to expand...

I will try... There is always a lag for the death stats. It takes about 5 days for a death to be registered and more days for the Death Stats to be published.

What sometimes confuses people is that when they look at Covid stats, they need to be triangulated from different sources. The media are not good at this....

For background; The people who hold the definitive death data is not the nhs ;

The General registrars office (GRO) hold all the death data. They get this from the registrars offices who record every death in their local authority area - and most importantly for every setting.

The nhs can only tell us the deaths in hospitals - so their numbers are short on their own. Nhs stats tend to exclude deaths at home, care/nursing home and hospice etc. Unless they have triangulated the info from the GRO.

Compare this to new cases you mention, this data is as it happens and easy recorded in the nhs systems.

The ONS combine data but, once again they get the data from the GRO and this has a natural delay too.

Hope this helps. Pm me if you want more info.
 
ohfk said:
Let me first make this clear.. I'm not wishing more deaths on the US or trying to be a doom monger. I'm trying to understand how a couple of months ago, with an average of around 30k to 35k new cases /day they were getting well in excess of 2000 deaths/day. Yet now with 60k to 70k new cases/day they consistently get under 1000 deaths/day. florida in particular with twice the population of NY also (I'm guessing) but a higher average aged demographic and similar new cases to NY are way down on deaths/day

i may have missed an obvious explanation for this, apologies if so. It's at least a 4 fold decrease in deaths. are they not giving the correct figures or am i missing something?

To reiterate, the first line of this OP is really important.
Click to expand...

As Trump keeps saying, it's because they are testing more. Unless getting a positive test then that person will never be recorded anywhere. It's certain that when they were getting 2k deaths a day there were more cases then there are now.
 
bluesoup said:
I will try... There is always a lag for the death stats. It takes about 5 days for a death to be registered and more days for the Death Stats to be published.

What sometimes confuses people is that when they look at Covid stats, they need to be triangulated from different sources. The media are not good at this....

For background; The people who hold the definitive death data is not the nhs ;

The General registrars office (GRO) hold all the death data. They get this from the registrars offices who record every death in their local authority area - and most importantly for every setting.

The nhs can only tell us the deaths in hospitals - so their numbers are short on their own. Nhs stats tend to exclude deaths at home, care/nursing home and hospice etc. Unless they have triangulated the info from the GRO.

Compare this to new cases you mention, this data is as it happens and easy recorded in the nhs systems.

The ONS combine data but, once again they get the data from the GRO and this has a natural delay too.

Hope this helps. Pm me if you want more info.
Click to expand...

I appreciate the reply, I've not really got an issue with the UK figures. The ratio between cases and deaths in the UK have been fairly consistent. They rose as the new cases rose and they dropped as the new cases dropped albeit with the lag between each.

What I'm trying to get is the disparity in the ratio of cases and deaths in the US. which by just looking at the raw figures has decreased 4 fold at least in the last two months.

2 months ago, although this was around half NY and NJ the ratio of cases to deaths was approx 35k new cases/2500 deaths/day

Whereas now we're seeing 70k new cases yesterday/1000 deaths. I appreciate the lag in deaths following new cases. But the take from the figures are, when comparing 2 months ago to today in America. That less people are dying from an increased amount of cases (better treatment) or that the lag hasn't caught up yet, which means at the same ratio, we're going to see around 5,000 deaths/day for the 70k new cases today in around a week from now. Or are the US simply fudging the figures?
 
True_Blue69 said:
As Trump keeps saying, it's because they are testing more. Unless getting a positive test then that person will never be recorded anywhere. It's certain that when they were getting 2k deaths a day there were more cases then there are now.
Click to expand...

This makes more sense, the actual figures infected with covid a few months ago, was considerably higher than the figures shown. So there was probably around 140k new cases/day when the official figure was 35k.

Cheers
 
England hospital deaths very odd and a bit worrying. Or not. Could be a reporting error.

Says a total of 38 (almost same as last week) but with ZERO from yesterday (July 10). Which would be big news in England if true.

But it shows 18 (by far the most in several weeks on one day) from the day before - 9 June - (so I am wondering if they have in error conflated these two dates into one)

Anyhow 13 of the 38 were from the NW.

Last week it was 39 deaths, 2 from the day before and 11 of the 39 from the NW.

So regardless of the 18 being just July 9 or July 9 + 10 not much of a fall week on week.
 
To clarify they do not normally show a date when it has 0 deaths. It is just missing from the list as July 10 here is missing But adding 18 in one go to any date is a big rise on what has been happening in the past month or so. Especially if its for Thursday but the day after it then has zero deaths for the first time since the start of the pandemic. So it needs clarifying. Or they will correct any mistake I assume.
 
Still not altered and no media has commented as yet. Though have given the number of 38 and added that 'another 7 deaths occurred with no positive Covid test' - which I don't recall being mentioned before.

The 38 were aged between 40 and 98 and three (aged 65 to 86) had no underlying health conditions.
 
Meanwhile Scotland has much better news.

0 deaths. Just 7 new cases. And only 6 now in ICU (-6 from yesterday). 6 is the lowest they have been at on ventilators since way back in March. At one point in April they had over 200.

This time last week it was 0 deaths, 11 cases and 19 in icu,
 
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