COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Healdplace]

Everything shows that there has been a fundamental change in the lethality of this virus. It is likely not one single facror such as T cells or wider herd immunity than picked up on testing or better treatment methods or seeing critical errors from the early days such as over use of ventilators which quite possibly actually killed thousands rather than saved them (Boris had a narrow escape in that regard). But a combination of these things and others we may not have figured out yet.

Another big contributer has been that the most vulnerable are being the most cautious and - with obvious exceptions - minimising risk. So - yes - people are catching it but in the main not getting very sick. Though soome are and always will.

But likely all these things together means that it has changed and whilst infections are out there and rising the death rate is not. Though it may well be bottomed out and we will never see a Covid free society and have to live with it as a cause of a few deaths a week pretty much indefinitely.

Unless a vaccine really works or the virus does indeed mutate to decrease lethality which has a survval value to the virus as like all life it tends to evolve to survive not to infect someone and die.

 

[Healdplace]

Examples like New Zealand which for many handled the start of the pandemic brilliantly by minimising it also show that it is still unclear who actually did the best thing. Because I suspect (no more than that) they will be the ones who suffer worst from the so called second wave as they protected so many so well the virus has a large field of people to infect.

Virus management is usually a long game. This one is under 9 months old. And we have come a long way in that time. The UK may yet - even if by accident rather than design - not end up looking the basket case many think itto be right now

Even the WHO seem to be changing tack on our methods. And New Zealand is back in full lockdown.And even one Australian state lost more people to it yesterday than the whole country did in weeks when they were keeping it out successfully.

So many factors are in play in this outbreak it is by no means clear who guessed right here as yet. And really thats all anyone was doing for most of the first few months.

 

[Ban-jani]

Examples like New Zealand which for many handled the start of the pandemic brilliantly by minimising it also show that it is still unclear who actually did the best thing. Because I suspect (no more than that) they will be the ones who suffer worst from the so called second wave as they protected so many so well the virus has a large field of people to infect.

Virus management is usually a long game. This one is under 9 months old. And we have come a long way in that time. The UK may yet - even if by accident rather than design - not end up looking the basket case many think itto be right now

Even the WHO seem to be changing tack on our methods. And New Zealand is back in full lockdown.And even one Australian state lost more people to it yesterday than the whole country did in weeks when they were keeping it out successfully.

So many factors are in play in this outbreak it is by no means clear who guessed right here as yet. And really thats all anyone was doing for most of the first few months.

Some people have been saying this for a while mate, both excellent posts you’ve just made.

 

[Healdplace]

Some people have been saying this for a while mate, both excellent posts you’ve just made.

Thank you and I know they have.But science has to follow the evidence as it accumulates. And the evidence is starting to be clearer than it was.

Though guesswork will unfortunately still have a part to play for some time yet.

The one advantage of a global pandemic is you get to see multiple countries in multiple time zones and seasons and with widely varying demographics from political to social and health care cope with it reaching their shores. And instant access to the consequences of their actions.

That is why the comparisons with the 1918 pandemic are relatively meaningless as none of those things were the same and the consequences instantly accessible to a global communityof scientists.

It is easy to underestimate the advantage the age of global society brings as well as underestimating the disadvantages it brings via much more rapid spread than was true 100 years ago.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Examples like New Zealand which for many handled the start of the pandemic brilliantly by minimising it also show that it is still unclear who actually did the best thing. Because I suspect (no more than that) they will be the ones who suffer worst from the so called second wave as they protected so many so well the virus has a large field of people to infect.

Virus management is usually a long game. This one is under 9 months old. And we have come a long way in that time. The UK may yet - even if by accident rather than design - not end up looking the basket case many think itto be right now

Even the WHO seem to be changing tack on our methods. And New Zealand is back in full lockdown.And even one Australian state lost more people to it yesterday than the whole country did in weeks when they were keeping it out successfully.

So many factors are in play in this outbreak it is by no means clear who guessed right here as yet. And really thats all anyone was doing for most of the first few months.

I hope you do realise that it is Winter in New Zealand (when the virus is supposed to be of great risk) and the Kiwis lockdown Auckland after the first cases in over 100 days. There is no evidence at the moment that New Zealand will get the virus anywhere near as badly as we have but like most things Covid related, it is too early to tell.

I think it’s very important that people remain vigilant because there doesn’t seem to be robust and clear evidence that we are close to herd immunity (more likely a long way off) or that the virus has weakened significantly.

That said, I am in favour of opening every part of the society and the economy up where it’s reasonably safe to do so.

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland 52 cases (27 in the Grampian area) and a 1.2% test ratio. Not good. Possibly the highest yet. And double England yesterday.

Hospital numbers up again to 269 (+2). Another worrying trend. Though still small.

Still 3 in ICU and 0 deaths though.

 

[Eds]

Kilmarnock should be awarded the 3 points, and Celtic's last 3 trophies should also be stripped and awarded to Kilmarnock. Only fair.

Being serious though, what a fucking idiot. Selfish as they come. I fear a precedent has been set by not hanging Aberdeen out to dry for their players antics last week but this is even worse imo. Not a chance in hell did Boli not know that what he was doing was wrong. He knew fine well, and stuck 2 fingers up to the league, his club, Kilmarnock and the health service and victims of this pandemic. He should be sacked on the spot, and how Celtic are treated should depend on whether anyone from the club knew what he was up to - which I assume they didn't.

Given the furore over Dominic C, where i the outrage from media over this selfish breach. What example is Boli setting and what is he saying to everyone one in the country? What a cock womble

 

[Healdplace]

Week to week Scottish data:

Last Tuesday v today

Deaths 0 v 0

New cases 23 v 52

Test ratio of new cases 1% v 1.2 %

Hospital patients 270 v 269

ICU 4 v 3

 

[Healdplace]

Nicola Sturgeon just said over Celtic. This time it is the yellow card. Next time re football it will be the red.

Personally the club should suspend him on no pay for a month and give the money to the NHS.

The public have to see consequences from these actions.

Or if they see privileged young rich folk get away with it then some will inevitably choose not to lose money if asked to do so by self isolating instead of going to their job.

Boris made a catastrophic error over this with Cummings that may well when this is over bite him back. Nicola must be strong.

 

[AlgarveBlu]

Thank you and I know they have.But science has to follow the evidence as it accumulates. And the evidence is starting to be clearer than it was.

Though guesswork will unfortunately still have a part to play for some time yet.

The one advantage of a global pandemic is you get to see multiple countries in multiple time zones and seasons and with widely varying demographics from political to social and health care cope with it reaching their shores. And instant access to the consequences of their actions.

That is why the comparisons with the 1918 pandemic are relatively meaningless as none of those things were the same and the consequences instantly accessible to a global communityof scientists.

It is easy to underestimate the advantage the age of global society brings as well as underestimating the disadvantages it brings via much more rapid spread than was true 100 years ago.

Throughout this pandemic I always believed the advantages of the coordination of technology, cooperation and medical advancements we have attained since 1918 would prevail over the accelerant of this virus that would be caused by the massive increase in population and the ease and speed of global interconnectivity in these 100 years.

If we do get to the finishing line on this just battered and bruised let's hope we have the infrastructure and global coordination in place for the next one - lessons need to be learned and implemented for future generations.