COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Zubrman]

The 07:33 arrival into Central London had 153 people on it this morning, (not including me.) That's 15% capacity. Everyone was wearing a face covering.
This is another increase but less of one than it would have been, if it were not mid-holiday period.

 

[Gray]

Government web site has gone tits up, no updates since monday due to technical difficulties.

They can not even add the days figures to the previous days cumulative and get a correct answer.

 

[Manchester1894]

Was anyone in Mary D’s for the Real Madrid game on Friday? According to this, someone who was has subsequently tested positive for it:

LMAO

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

No idea as we have no idea where the people on beaches are coming from. What we have seen is an increase in cases over the past couple of weeks though

Not really. If you were to look at the UCL and ONS weekly estimates, they’ve always been 2 or 3 times higher than reported. The government are now using the UCL data to target hotspots. More tests in the areas where there are more known infections will provide more positive cases, surprisingly enough.

 

[Healdplace]

Thanks for the info HP. Out of interest, where do you find the stats on French hospital admissions? Always worth looking elsewhere, particularly in neighbouring European countries for trends, so cheers for this.

Sorry, I don't follow the French hospital data. Not the time. It was reported in the UK Media what was happening and apparently their numbers have continued to go up today also. Though it did not specify in the reference today whether that was just another rise in cases or admissions too.

Of course, with an NHS health system we are notcost driven in the way many countries are so may well bring people in just in case with Covid for a brief assessment. That seems not uncommon with UK admissions rising early week and dropping over the next 48 hours, presumably as many of them do not need to stay in.

 

[Healdplace]

@Healdplace have you put all of your excellent daily updates into one place like an excel sheet? i am interested to see the timelines but from your analysis

Sadly I would have no clue how. I just write the data down and post it. My education predates the computer. Heck almost the wheel.

 

[BlueHammer85]

No idea as we have no idea where the people on beaches are coming from. What we have seen is an increase in cases over the past couple of weeks though

which was always going to be the case once lockdown was eased.

only way to not see increases is if everyone stays in their bedrooms and we close the country down

 

[cleavers]

The overtly political posts have been moved to the thread about politics, please can we keep them in there.

 

[Healdplace]

If they just update the data once today it will mess up our tracking of that data a bit.

Hopefully not. But I am still baffled why they could not update yesterday's case numbers as those were out 16 hours ago and they can obviously update the site with text as they have twice added messages about why they are NOT adding anything.

So not putting onto there the new cases and test data theyclearly have access to is hard to fathom. But it still only shows the 816 from Monday not yesterdays 1148.

 

[shemnel]

Sadly I would have no clue how. I just write the data down and post it. My education predates the computer. Heck almost the wheel.

cheers pal, no problem. i just wanted to get a feel for some things.

 

[Healdplace]

Germany is apparently having outbreaks all over the country and reported 1226 new cases (just above the UK and the highest since May). But deaths are also staying at a low level (just 6).

So another country tracking in this same way - more cases/fewer deaths seeming to result.

As they only have had just over 9000 - so way below the UK - this similarity is ingeresting.

 

[PannickAtTheDisco]

Germany is apparently having outbreaks all over the country and reported 1226 new cases (just above the UK and the highest since May). But deaths are also staying at a low level (just 6).

So another country tracking in this same way - more cases/fewer deaths seeming to result.

are they just catching up with spread that we've been having throughout due to the severity of lockdowns?

 

[shemnel]

Germany is apparently having outbreaks all over the country and reported 1226 new cases (just above the UK and the highest since May). But deaths are also staying at a low level (just 6).

So another country tracking in this same way - more cases/fewer deaths seeming to result.

As they only have had just over 9000 - so way below the UK - this similarity is ingeresting.

dont forget the reporting of deaths was rather different in the UK and Germany, another factor

 

[Healdplace]

As I have said before New York State in the US is well worth watching. It has mirrored the UK outbreak up to now in terms of sharp rise, peak around the same time in April, not dissimilar death numbers and the tail off to both in the past three months.

NY State has the same UK like mix of rural mainland areas and densely packed population centres of mixed ethnic origin in the off shore islands.

They have not suffered the big rise that other US states seem to have of late.

They fell below 1000 daily cases in June much as we did. But struggled to get below about 700.

They are running at between 500 and 700 over the past few days. So that seems about the base level to aspire towards. They have got up to around 900 a couple of days but yet to pass 1000.

Deaths peaked in the same few days we did (around 8/10 April) at about 800 a day. They have plummetted since after an initially slow fall like us to under 100. Went below 10 a couple of weeks ago like us and are now running in single figures daily.

This mirror pattern is very interesting as the US is awash with the virus in other states. But here - the one worst impacted in the early months - it is tracking us very closely.

Their overall numbers are a little down on ours but they have one third of the England population.

But this does suggest the virus behaves as it does in certain locations almost regardless.

 

[Healdplace]

dont forget the reporting of deaths was rather different in the UK and Germany, another factor

I know this compromises a lot of comparisons. But you can only look at trends. Not raw numbers in many instances. Its why I focus on New York State as they seem about the most closely similar to the UK in many ways. So watching what is happening there is a good idea.

 

[Healdplace]

Scottish data

0 deaths for 27th day on the run.

New cases 47 - with 12 added to the Aberdeen cluster. And another 12 in the Grampian area possibly connected.

Hospital patients 265 (- 4)

ICU ventilator patients still 3.

Aberdeen to stay in lockdown for another week.

 

[Healdplace]

Interesting data on European case levels right now (In Telegraph by the way).

Italy just 8 new cases per 100,000 people.

Germany 13 per 100K

UK 17 per 100K

Ireland 18 per 100K

Portugal 25 per 100K

France 29 per 100K

Sweden 35 per 100K

Belgium 62 per 100K

And Spain 90 per 100K. It is having over 3000 new cases a day apparently and its total number of cases has actually gone 12,000 above the number recorded by the UK in recent days knocking us off one number one spot.

We need to watch how this big rise translates over coming weeks into deaths - if it does.

If it does not that will be very good news.

 

[KennyG]

The amount of people who believe the earth is flat, chemtrails are real, 5g is fucking with our brains, we never went to the moon etc would surprise you too. Lots of people are largely quite stupid. They believe everything is a conspiracy and can't quite comprehend that 99.9999% of things that happen have fuck all to do with them, but they're convinced that they're all trying to be kept in the dark anyway.

I don’t think the moon landing was real.Surely I’m not alone?

 

[True_Blue69]

As I have said before New York State in the US is well worth watching. It has mirrored the UK outbreak up to now in terms of sharp rise, peak around the same time in April, not dissimilar death numbers and the tail off to both in the past three months.

NY State has the same UK like mix of rural mainland areas and densely packed population centres of mixed ethnic origin in the off shore islands.

They have not suffered the big rise that other US states seem to have of late.

They fell below 1000 daily cases in June much as we did. But struggled to get below about 700.

They are running at between 500 and 700 over the past few days. So that seems about the base level to aspire towards. They have got up to around 900 a couple of days but yet to pass 1000.

Deaths peaked in the same few days we did (around 8/10 April) at about 800 a day. They have plummetted since after an initially slow fall like us to under 100. Went below 10 a couple of weeks ago like us and are now running in single figures daily.

This mirror pattern is very interesting as the US is awash with the virus in other states. But here - the one worst impacted in the early months - it is tracking us very closely.

Their overall numbers are a little down on ours but they have one third of the England population.

But this does suggest the virus behaves as it does in certain locations almost regardless.

There has to be higher levels of immunity gained over the short peak periods. Would also explain why London is doing better than Manchester as they had it bad a few weeks earlier. Either way this is all very positive news in my opinion.

 

[Healdplace]

On the Spanish data - no big influx of patients yet - though they are preparing and have built a new field hospital in Zaragoza where there is a lot of local transmission.

But 70% of those testing positive are under 30 and regularly partying in nightclubs etc.

And no sign yet of rising death numbers.

Of course, Spain likely is under reporting v the UK but the number of deaths per 100K population in last two weeks is one quarter of those reported in the same period in the UK.