COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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As usual Scottish journalists asking real questions not trying to ego massage.

Nicola Sturgeon asked if the increase in cases is down to more virus or more testing.

Rightly she says a bit of both and emphasises the % figure Scotland gives daily but England probably cannot be bothered to do or cannot work out as our slide rule is broken.

I add that figure here when I can as it is a key indicator like Nicola recognises. And as she rightly added the % used to be abojut half what it is now but watching it be kept within reason and hopefully falling tells us much more about how well we are doing than just spouting the number of new cases daily.

It is at 1% today. But it has been up to 1.3% a few days ago. So if it can fall consistently below 1% that will be a good sign.
 
I too doubt the 6% have had it number is accurate. But even if it is - you have to remember it is the survivors obviously - and so misses out those who have had it and died.

And at 6% we are talking 4 - 5 million or so have had it with only 40,000 dying. So the death rate is sub 1% and not the kind of level many once feared ior raw stats implied.

And obviously much lower the younger you are.

Plus the % will be much higher in population dense areas. Every study has found that. So the GM infection level will be well above 6% you can be reasonsbly sure. I think New York found very high numbers (possibly too high) - but I would not be surprised at 20% plus in such badly impacted locations.

I slso think T Cells may well be a factor so the antibody levels may be not irrelevant but less relevat than they seem.

And in recent days I have seen more than one scientist argue the behaviour of the virus (lethality im particular) seems to have changed and that may well be another factor that makes the situation less dire than it may seem. As I think thereare pointers in the data hinting at the death rate tumbling for various reasons even when the case numbers rise

6% of 67 million is 4 million given the uk deaths are around 60k (you're going off the inaccurate government figures btw) it gives the mortality rate at 1.5% which is pretty much what everyone feared it would be and the same as what other countries have seen.

That 6% is a very robust number as it's will be a stratified random sample. London will be the only place with higher % and that's only at 13% (again regional level numbers are very robust as well). 20% in certain areas is lovely thought but unfortunately wrong. Ultimately there are still 63 million people left for the virus to infect and it's not choosy. It's only just started
 
I too doubt the 6% have had it number is accurate. But even if it is - you have to remember it is the survivors obviously - and so misses out those who have had it and died.

And at 6% we are talking 4 - 5 million or so have had it with only 40,000 dying. So the death rate is sub 1% and not the kind of level many once feared ior raw stats implied.

And obviously much lower the younger you are.

Plus the % will be much higher in population dense areas. Every study has found that. So the GM infection level will be well above 6% you can be reasonsbly sure. I think New York found very high numbers (possibly too high) - but I would not be surprised at 20% plus in such badly impacted locations.

I slso think T Cells may well be a factor so the antibody levels may be not irrelevant but less relevat than they seem.

And in recent days I have seen more than one scientist argue the behaviour of the virus (lethality im particular) seems to have changed and that may well be another factor that makes the situation less dire than it may seem. As I think thereare pointers in the data hinting at the death rate tumbling for various reasons even when the case numbers rise
Before getting too excited about T cell immunity there’s plenty of specialists who question how significant it is. For example:
 
England hospital data a little disappointing today. Higher than the last two Thursdays and more than double last Thursdays number.
 
13 deaths - 1 from yesterday - 5 from the NW. Versus last week 5 deaths - 0 from day before - 2 from NW.
 
So

12 Aug stands at 1 after 1 day

11 Aug adds 5 (most for one day in a while to be 6 after 2 days (highest 2 day total in over a week)

10 Aug adds 2 to be 5 after 3 days (highest 3 day total in five days)

9 Aug adds 1 to be 5 after 4 days.

8 Aug adds 1 to be 5 after 5 days.

So now 5 consecutive five day totals of 6 or below. And 16 consecutive 5 day totals of 10 or below (14 of these are single figures and the other 2 are 10 -so average per day for 5 day total = 5.6

Not one day since 26 July has a current England hospital death total of more than 10 after all add ons over those two weeks.
 
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That tweet is over a month old. also he'd have better credibility if everything he said wasn't so happy clappy. He makes statements when the evidence isn't proven just like the tweet above. Hope he is right though.

To be fair though, what has he said that has been wrong so far? You call him happy clappy but from what I've seen everything he has said has been right.
 
6% of 67 million is 4 million given the uk deaths are around 60k (you're going off the inaccurate government figures btw) it gives the mortality rate at 1.5% which is pretty much what everyone feared it would be and the same as what other countries have seen.

That 6% is a very robust number as it's will be a stratified random sample. London will be the only place with higher % and that's only at 13% (again regional level numbers are very robust as well). 20% in certain areas is lovely thought but unfortunately wrong. Ultimately there are still 63 million people left for the virus to infect and it's not choosy. It's only just started

Bet you're fun on a night out
 
At least the NHS weren't overwhelmed in April ;-)

Though the reality is they were, and couldn't deal with it all, so many of the NHS staff were also overwhelmed, and a good many died as a result.

The reality is that we (as a country) had no idea what we were really dealing with, and we had no idea how to treat it.

We were then hit by the worst scenario of people travelling to the worst areas in our own half term holidays, just as other countries were getting to their peak of local transmission.

So you can blame government all you like, but at the end of the day we were in a very shit position, sure there were things we could have done better (mainly in hindsight - and there still are even today), but we were pretty much fucked by the fact that many people in the southeast/london area had half term skiing breaks or holidays to spain, just as it was running amok, they all came home and went about their normal lives packing trains and tubes not knowing they were transmitting the virus, a lot of those travel for work, so took it to all corners of the country, and there it spread further.
we had time advantage to see and prepare for what was coming,we went our own way ,i was screaming about both and for the stopping of mass gatherings,no hindsight required,we literally had the WHO and Ita!y screaming at us to change course,we didnt
 
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