COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[True_Blue69]

Could be wrong but probably spoken by someone who doesn’t have kids and if they do, chances are they don’t home school.

I watched my furloughed wife do it and fair play to teachers, I wouldn't have the patience. Was frustrating me just listening from my temporary office!

 

[Tarzan41]

I didnt say you did i ?

What was ‘most people’ based upon? It’s a sweeping assumption about parents so yes that does include me. And you’re dead wrong. All parents I know have been turning themselves inside out and doing there very best in a terrible situation.

 

[Healdplace]

GM total is actually OK considering. A lot of numbers down. And a bit of a lower percentage of the NW total than yesterday despite the numbers rising by 36 in the region.

GM total falls from 646 to 560 today.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

when did i do that ?

Quite often on this thread! Its a shame I cant just put you on ignore for just this thread. I enjoy your other posts.

 

[Coatigan]

Not if we aren't touching the same surfaces, in a restaurant we won't at home we would. Seems simple to me.

I don't think so myself.

Kinda besides the point, individual instances and specific details aside, these are blanked collective measures, aimed at trying to stop pricks being pricks. Which is doubtful will happen.

I absolutely am on board with giving anything a right good go, even if i don't see sense in it myself.

 

[Cityfan]

As I said, there is a slight rise in the death rate, but I (we, as in work colleagues) are not worried about these numbers at all at this moment in time. The new cases numbers are seriously in doubt primarily due to a deep concern that the tests are picking up old infections in the body. This is what happens when you leave non-NHS companies in charge of testing who aren't used to dealing with medical data.

It's pretty unmlikely that the rise is due to picking up old infections , it may be a problem in terms of picking up people in time to make isolation effective but the rise in numbers is almost certainly not due to old infections a complete red herring,

 

[Pedestrian]

Well seeing as i am sixty i dont have school aged kids

Have you got any kids and if so were you arsed enough to home school them?

 

[lancs blue]

Deaths are a lagging indicator, it was generally acknowledged that we were late going into lockdown last time becuase we used deaths to look at the rate of change.
Hospitalisations and ventilator useage is increasing.
There is a choice as to whether or not to sit it out but if you decide to intervene earlier is probably better.

I think even new cases are a lagging indicator given the 5-6 days average incubation period during which presymptomatic people are infectious.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Whilst this is undoubtedly a public health crisis, treating as it is the sole threat to health and well being is hugely problematic. We should deal with this as we deal with many threats to public health, in a coherent and balanced way.
We are in danger of abandoning a whole raft of cancer, cardiac, stroke and any number of treatable patients once again by chasing the impossible goal of Covid suppression.

One way to think of this disease is that it is a magnifier of already existing conditions and it most likely will only be ‘over’ by becoming endemic and coexisting with the other 200+ respiratory viruses that take away many elderly patients every year.

It would be judicious to balance any current measures with their present and future cost, particularly to the young.

 

[Cityfan]

I think even new cases are a lagging indicator given the 5-6 days average incubation period during which presymptomatic people are infectious.

They lag a bit but are a lot more up to date than deaths. although there is a lag between infection and symptoms, it is generally reckoned that it is only the last two days before symptoms that onward transmission is considered a significant risk.

 

[kaz7]

Have you got any kids and if so were you arsed enough to home school them?

Home schooling wasnt a thing back then, i quite like the idea though , there is a family who travel the world with their kids and home school at the same time ,that would be perfect i reckon

 

[grunge]

As I said, there is a slight rise in the death rate, but I (we, as in work colleagues) are not worried about these numbers at all at this moment in time. The new cases numbers are seriously in doubt primarily due to a deep concern that the tests are picking up old infections in the body. This is what happens when you leave non-NHS companies in charge of testing who aren't used to dealing with medical data.

Not sure old infections is a valid issue in real terms. when you look at the percentages of what is coming back, infections vs tests the percentages of number of infected people is increasing.

1st of the month, 0.81% of the 158554 tests came back positive.
Today 2,6% of the 188865 tests came back positive.

those old positives have to be getting infected at some point.

we dropped below 1% return rate around 1st of July and didn't go above it till 1st week of this month.

 

[lancs blue]

They lag a bit but are a lot more up to date than deaths. although there is a lag between infection and symptoms, it is generally reckoned that it is only the last two days before symptoms that onward transmission is considered a significant risk.

Fair enough but even for two days of onward transmission I can't understand why the government gives 3 or 4 days notice of imposing some of the restrictions, they have emergency legislation that would allow them to impose some of them immediately and hopefully reduce the level of onward transmission.

 

[inchy14]

If I had to guess, it’s less likely that a funeral will go on all day and turn into a piss up - obviously assuming that wakes are banned.

Only till 10pm!!

 

[bluejon]

With your background I'm sure you understand the concept of an exponential increase - if we wait for those figures to be visibly increasing exponentially it will be too late to prevent a second peak. We made that mistake first time around, national lockdown started on March 23rd at which point the number of new cases were doubling roughly every 4-5 days, by March 27th new cases had tripled relative to the 23rd. The horse had already bolted.

Of course i understand exponential increase and we are not seeing evidence of that at the moment. The horse is quite happy, carrots and everything.

 

[Fred_Quimby]

Anyone have the feeling that the measures don’t go far enough? Do they know something we don’t - as in we are not in as bad a way as they say? For instance; we are not being hammered anywhere near as badly as those people in local lockdown.

 

[mosssideblue]

What a load of tosh. If you can't see how it spreads, there really is no hope for you.

Oh, I can see how it spreads, but that wasn't the question I responded to.

 

[Pedestrian]

Home schooling wasnt a thing back then, i quite like the idea though , there is a family who travel the world with their kids and home school at the same time ,that would be perfect i reckon

Home schooling was the original schooling and has been a ‘thing’ since schooling began. I’m gonna assume that your choice of words didn’t really represent what you were trying to say. Either that or you simply couldn’t be arsed.

 

[bluejon]

Not sure old infections is a valid issue in real terms. when you look at the percentages of what is coming back, infections vs tests the percentages of number of infected people is increasing.

1st of the month, 0.81% of the 158554 tests came back positive.
Today 2,6% of the 188865 tests came back positive.

those old positives have to be getting infected at some point.

we dropped below 1% return rate around 1st of July and didn't go above it till 1st week of this month.

From the people I've spoken to they are deeply sceptical of the testing methods and are worried that old covid cells are being picked up by the current tests creating false positives. That is just one reason why I have almost no confidence in the testing figures whatsoever. The main one is that they are simply not testing enough people to have any mathematical confidence in the numbers they are describing as unassailable fact.

 

[bluejon]

I hope you're right and the current increases are not as significant as the authorities are making out.

So do I. Not because it means 'I was right, look at me' but because it means we can get things back to normal. That is all I care about.