COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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cleavers said:
If that was the case, why is it increasing pretty much day on day ? If it was all "old covid cells", how could it be increasing daily ? Also it suggests many more must have had it (and presumably fairly recently ? how long can you find "old covid cells" for), yet we know from the ONS stats on antibodies that only 8% of those tested that way have them (17% in London apparently).
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There's a number of reasons people are sceptical about the numbers being released, it's not just because of old covid cells. And for the record, I'm not talking about antibodies being picked up, but old dead cells, which apparently is a thing (this is now outside of my area of research and i'm just quoting what I've been told).

EDIT: just to add, I'm not denying numbers are going up, what i'm saying is right now i do not believe they are the start of the catastrophic second wave that many seem to be convinced we are now in. I am however saying the numbers are far from exact.
 
cleavers said:
If that was the case, why is it increasing pretty much day on day ? If it was all "old covid cells", how could it be increasing daily ? Also it suggests many more must have had it (and presumably fairly recently ? how long can you find "old covid cells" for), yet we know from the ONS stats on antibodies that only 8% of those tested that way have them (17% in London apparently).
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Actually there is no such thing as old covid cells. It is a virus not a cell. The test detects viralrna and the rna can come from inactive virus . It is highly unlikely that you will get a rising incidence from historical covid as shedding decreases with time and it appears uncommon that it persists .
 
kaz7 said:
N

Not a thing as in you got in trouble taking kids out of school or keeping them away ,tbf i didnt expect people to take it literally
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I’m not sure what the first part of your response is in reference to but home schooling was the original schooling and has been practised since before formal schooling as we know it began. The choice of words you chose was always going to antagonise those parents amongst us who would love nothing better then the option to home school but are restricted by that pesky thing called a salary.
 
bluejon said:
There's a number of reasons people are sceptical about the numbers being released, it's not just because of old covid cells. And for the record, I'm not talking about antibodies being picked up, but old dead cells, which apparently is a thing (this is now outside of my area of research and i'm just quoting what I've been told).

EDIT: just to add, I'm not denying numbers are going up, what i'm saying is right now i do not believe they are the start of the catastrophic second wave that many seem to be convinced we are now in. I am however saying the numbers are far from exact.
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No disrespect, but you say you and your fellow (scientist) workmates are not worried about the data, so where are you publishing these findings and to whom. Also, why are the more virus qualified scientists (who do make their findings known) so wrong?
 
mosssideblue said:
No disrespect, but you say you and your fellow (scientist) workmates are not worried about the data, so where are you publishing these findings and to whom. Also, why are the more virus qualified scientists (who do make their findings known) so wrong?
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If you keep an eye on the news you'll see a lot of also very qualified scientists (much more than me) who are also questioning the hell out of the current analysis of the figures, including two scientists from oxford who were present in the meeting at number 10 who apparently went apeshit about whitty's figures. As for publishing these figures, there are people publishing them. After a discussion this afternoon my boss sent me this paper. I've not read through it myself yet, but he sent it over as evidence as to what we have been discussing:
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3259
 
denislawsbackheel said:
And what is your “area of research”?
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Data analysis in medical/healthcare data. I'm a researcher in the medical school at Mcr University, specifically the imaging sciences dept. My PhD was in AI/Machine Learning, unsupervised neural nets. I love working with data.
 
Cityfan said:
Actually there is no such thing as old covid cells. It is a virus not a cell. The test detects viralrna and the rna can come from inactive virus . It is highly unlikely that you will get a rising incidence from historical covid as shedding decreases with time and it appears uncommon that it persists .
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Thanks, it didn't make sense to me, and you confirm it doesn't make sense.

I'm a "scientist" myself, so I like to deal in facts not speculation, which that post is.

My science field is about as far removed from this as you can get, but I do understand data, as my job involves analysing a lot of it, and for a wide variety of (I'll call them) samples, and I do it for virtually every task I do.

I also very much understand computer models, and the differences between different models, often from different countries using different science behind them, and can look at 5 or 6 models per shift. Each and every one gives a different result, and generally they get further and further "different" as time into the future passes, so I have to work out which is best for the task I'm doing, some work well in some countries, and some less so.
 
bluejon said:
If you keep an eye on the news you'll see a lot of also very qualified scientists (much more than me) who are also questioning the hell out of the current analysis of the figures, including two scientists from oxford who were present in the meeting at number 10 who apparently went apeshit about whitty's figures. As for publishing these figures, there are people publishing them. After a discussion this afternoon my boss sent me this paper. I've not read through it myself yet, but he sent it over as evidence as to what we have been discussing:
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3259
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Thanks for your reply and whilst I appreciate your view, I still remain convinced this is a lot worse than you suggest, and heading in the wrong direction.

For now, all we can do is keep each other safe and see where that leads us
 
I know I shouldn’t bother with social media, but know a couple people on it calling these latest measures ‘bullshit’’ and telling people to go to the protest rally on Saturday.
depressing days
 
BlueHammer85 said:
I know I shouldn’t bother with social media, but know a couple people on it calling these latest measures ‘bullshit’’ and telling people to go to the protest rally on Saturday.
depressing days
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like everything on Twitter it’s all about extremes. Half the people think we should be out carrying on as normal and the other think we should be locked down fully until it’s gone away.

as with everything on Twitter and social media (Inc bluemoon) the correct answer is somewhere in the middle.

with the rise in hospital numbers I think we are doing the right thing at the moment .
 
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