COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[bluejon]

Nope. There may have been question marks on some of the model assumptions. The 500k dead figure is entirely valid.

"Lockdown stopped 470k Covid-19 deaths in UK, say researchers"

https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/uncategorised/lockdown-stopped-470k-covid-19-deaths-in-uk-say-researchers/

470,000 + 41,000 = ?

"We find that across 11 countries 3.1 (2.8–3.5) million deaths have been averted owing to interventions since the beginning of the epidemic"

Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe - Nature

Modelling based on pooled data from 11 European countries indicates that non-pharmaceutical interventions—particularly lockdowns—have had a marked effect on SARS-CoV-2 transmission, driving the reproduction number of the infection below 1.

www.nature.com

Look, I fully get it that some people are so completely fucked off with COVID-19 measures and are desperate for some return to some kind of normality. Especially true I would imagine if you are in a low-risk demographic. So I understand why people want to downplay the severity of this. Perhaps subconsciously rather than consciously?

But it does not change the fact that if you have a deadly disease spreading unchecked through a community then inexorably and inevitably it would spread until the population reaches herd immunity. You could debate how long that would take, but what you cannot debate is the end point. And that end point would be 500,000 to 700,000 deaths in the UK. That is the point at which we would have reached some kind of herd immunity. Before that, it would just continue to spread and kill people.

Now I do agree that the 500,000 figure is unrealistic because measure WOULD be taken, as indeed they were. Once we got to 100,000 dead 200,000 etc and the NHS had collapsed, we would have been forced to put in draconian measures. So the 500,000 is theoretical. But it is a very real projection of what WOULD have happened were no lockdown or other measures have been introduced.

And that's important. It might only be a theoretical projection but understanding that this thing would kill half a million people in the UK is critical to our understanding the importance of the continued social distancing etc. And critical to our understanding that "Oh fuck it, lets just go back to normal" is an impossible choice.

With the measures they put in place the imperial college model roughly predicted around 260k deaths (although considering the virus most likely spread through a significant chunk of the population in feb/march the model is actually predicting closer to 500k). We are no where near that. And that article you've linked, the researchers it's quoting are from imperial so they are just saying "yes, the model we put together is right". Straight up, the model is wrong and it's what the entire western world based their lockdowns on. Boris Johnson is going to look a right **** when the rest of the world figures this out. This is a good thing. He is a ****.

 

[Chippy_boy]

I suspect its because it suits his narrative.

What narrative? Deary me.

 

[Chippy_boy]

With the measures they put in place the imperial college model roughly predicted around 260k deaths (although considering the virus most likely spread through a significant chunk of the population in feb/march the model is actually predicting closer to 500k). We are no where near that.

Eh? We are nowhere near that because er, we had a lockdown. You may have noticed???

How old are you as well? Serious question.

And another serious question for you: Why would an infectious disease NOT continue to spread and take lives, if we didn't take measures to prevent it? Any ideas? If you want to suggest why it would have fizzled out without measures being taken, then I'd love to hear them.

 

[Healdplace]

Because the youth and young people have actually started to wear masks and are practicing social distancing. It's been a rather dramatic change over the last two weeks when I've been out and about.
Rather refreshing too.

That is interesting thank you. Perhaps the Manchester student lock in might inspire a similar move there.

 

[sniff]

So September 2021
Does anyone think we could still have these restrictions?

Depends how quick the "its just flu or a massive conspiracy" simpletons die off. I'm hardly hardcore in thinking its the end of the world either. But stupidity is the key, mainly the fact that we have these little hints like the new restrictions. No ones took any notice, the numbers are still rising. We will get further restrictions, we are just being softened up. It will continue until they can find a vaccine that works. Sept next year

Yet the first one is accurate. Also today we hear that the mental health act was changed and only one signature from a doctor was required to section someone instead of 2 independent doctors. Not saying the rest is true but you can see why views like this are held when new measures’ are implemented without parliament’s say so and governments take away certain rights.

As a social worker I can tell you thats utter bullshit. !!! Have you ever tried to get someone sectioned ?? Its a fucking pain in the arse as it is. But I can reliably inform you a single Dr or police officer can section you. Police will very rarely do it now because its a bit of a grey area for them. But a single police officer can put you under a section 136 to a place of safety. That lasts for 24hrs. Where its reviewed by a minimum of two people. You never needed 2 independent Drs. A Dr and a mental health professional would suffice, and trust me they won't if they can possibly avoid it. I've had suicidal people who have attempted it historically who have been sent packing with a diazepam. So I can 100% confirm that to have been read by someone who didn't understand what they had read, or took it purposely out of context. Either way passing it off as fact is dumb and dangerous. Because stupid people lap this shit up

 

[bluejon]

Eh? We are nowhere near that because er, we had a lockdown. You may have noticed???

How old are you as well? Serious question.

And another serious question for you: Why would an infectious disease NOT continue to spread and take lives, if we didn't take measures to prevent it? Any ideas? If you want to suggest why it would have fizzled out without measures being taken, then I'd love to hear them.

I'm 45. As for the second part, i've never said it will 'fizzle out'. I expect covid-19 to be with us for a very long time at a low level, however the worries about a second wave were entirely based on what happened 100 years ago with the Spanish Flu when the second wave was the part which caused the most damage by far. Covid is showing no signs that the same pattern is going to reoccur.

 

[BlueAnorak]

2 weeks ago I predicted that hospital deaths would dramatically rise today. I goy it wrong, it was yesterday.
Apologises for my inaccuracy.

 

[inchy14]

Depends how quick the "its just flu or a massive conspiracy" simpletons die off. I'm hardly hardcore in thinking its the end of the world either. But stupidity is the key, mainly the fact that we have these little hints like the new restrictions. No ones took any notice, the numbers are still rising. We will get further restrictions, we are just being softened up. It will continue until they can find a vaccine that works. Sept next year


As a social worker I can tell you thats utter bullshit. !!! Have you ever tried to get someone sectioned ?? Its a fucking pain in the arse as it is. Bit I can reliably inform you a single Dr or police officer can section you. Police will very rarely do it now because its a bit of a grey area for them. But a single police officer can put you under a section 136 to a place of safety. That last for 24hrs. Where its reviewed by a minimum of two people. You never needed 2 independent Drs. A Dr and a mental health professional would suffice. So I can 100% confirm that to have been read by someone who didn't understand what they had read, or took it purposely put of context. Either way passing it off as fact is dumb and dangerous. Because stupid people lap this shit up

They just announced they’re changing it back in the commons, Hancock himself said it. Now I’ve no idea how many may have been done with this but it was certainly allowed to happen if needed.

 

[BobKowalski]

Yet the first one is accurate. Also today we hear that the mental health act was changed and only one signature from a doctor was required to section someone instead of 2 independent doctors. Not saying the rest is true but you can see why views like this are held when needed measures’ are implemented without parliament’s say so and governments take away certain rights.

No. I can’t. I have neither the patience, the tolerance or the interest in people who hold these views.

If people want to talk about the side lining of Parliament and proper scrutiny on Covid-19 rules and regs then I am more than happy to do so but not when it comes wrapped in horse poo.

 

[Chippy_boy]

I'm 45. As for the second part, i've never said it will 'fizzle out'. I expect covid-19 to be with us for a very long time at a low level, however the worries about a second wave were entirely based on what happened 100 years ago with the Spanish Flu when the second wave was the part which caused the most damage by far. Covid is showing no signs that the same pattern is going to reoccur.

I don't agree (unfortunately - I wish what you say is true).

We are getting slightly better at treating it and stopping people from dying - which is clearly marvellous. But by slightly, I am guessing 20% to 30% death rate reduction perhaps? I don't know. It's not 80% to 90% reduction, I do know that. So in broad terms, you have similar chance of dying if you catch it. And there's no evidence at all to suggest it has mutated and is somehow less infectious.

The conclusion from these two points is that it is NOT now less dangerous and therefore a similar second peak would be the inevitable consequence, UNLESS we continue with our social distancing, mask-wearing (this is key!) and hand-washing etc. This is no time to let up.

And can I just put on record, I think anyone who is ignoring / flaunting the rules is an utter ****. A selfish, utter ****. I don't mean you BTW, but far too many people are in that category.