COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Late last night I posted a table of the 10 GM boroughs over the past 6 weeks to show how their weekly Pop number changed day to day (or rather every couple of days for simplicity).

If you look at it you can see everywhere seemed to behave in much the same way and was rising up to around the 3/4 November when it pretty much peaked and then started to fall - in some cases quite sharply - almost immediately and has been falling ever since.

I don't know how that squares with the different measures being imposed as it has been more like the hokey cokey than a long term plan in the NW.

But anyone who does know the details of when measures were introduced, changed or ended can plot them via that data on page 7279,

I would be curious if it reveals what has/has not worked to tip this into decline.

Though it may be that it was simply the wave running its course in the NW first as it had been in full flow here longer than most other places.

what are the timeline of measures in Gtr Manc? obviously lockdown on Nov 5th but others?
 
I watched that BBC documentary on the 1918 flu pandemic narrated by Christopher Eccleston flagged up yesterday by some people on here. It heavily featured why Manchester succeeded locally in having one of the lowest death rates. I lost family in that pandemic (as I found from genealogy research not personally - not QUITE that old!) So it was heartening to know how local knowledge and action worked best than central government plans 102 years ago.

But less heartening to see almost none of the lessons were learned and how they saw two years ago all the issues we still had and walked right into months after this programme was made.

Though it has always been widely the assumption that the next pandemic would be a type of flu and nobody really saw it being a Covid style outbreak as it was thought these could be contained more locally.

Also fascinating to see Australia did exactly the same as it did in 1918 in 2020 and it worked pretty well both times. They used their island status in a way we could have done to mitigate but simply never did. Though to be fair that would have been far harder in the UK than Oz and also in the modern world than 1918.

Let us hope that the next one is a long way off and that the next generation to face this threat are able to learn from the past in ways we seem not to have done in many parts of the world today.

Especially as it does not take weeks on a steamship to spread the pandemic now as it did in 1918.

Well worth a view on i player if you did not watch it.
 
what are the timeline of measures in Gtr Manc? obviously lockdown on Nov 5th but others?
Sadly I lost track of them as they have changed so often. That's why I posted hoping someone can match them up.

Though someone in government must surely know what worked and have a fair guess as to how.
 
The recent official NHS statistics of Hospital Covid deaths show of the 39750 hospital deaths just 1723 had no 'pre-existing condition' (heart disease,diabetes,etc) . Almost 1400 of those 1723 were in the over 60 age bracket.
every life is important. ive pondered and debated on here the above fact that perhaps most of society can go back to their normal lives while those venerable should shield. but there doesnt seem to be an effective way of protecting the venerable. not in this country or any country for that matter.
 
Are you sure about that, a supermarket or shop is private property and I imagine they can refuse entry or service to whoever they choose.

It is apparently classed as discrimination because they would be refusing to serve a disabled person, who is exempt from their or the government's rules on medical grounds.
 
In the Telegraph today there is a graph showing why GM is in tier 3 and Merseyside not.

It shows GM at just over the tier 3 limit of 400 cases per 100,000. In other words a pop score of 400.

If you look at the table I posted last night that is untrue for GM. Indeed it has not been true for any borough in GM individually let alone collectively since Oldham went below 400 five days ago.

But the reason why it is considered true is that it is based on data (as the small print shows) EIGHT days old. And a lot has changed in those 8 days.

If you add up the Pop Scores for every GM borough 8 days ago they were 3926 = 392.6 per borough on average. Just below. But they have fallen since considerably.

5 days ago they were 2888 = 288.8 per borough. Yesterday 2215 = 221.5 per borough.

I know other factors are involved in the decisions and why week old data is used to make these calculations officially not day to day data - to allow allocation of cases to be to the correct date - but the total number of GM cases is the same over the period either way so these do reflect what is happening now in a way the government data reflects what happened last week.

Not arguing I am calling for GM to not be in tier 3. Tbh with the Christmas truce I think the restrictions will help mitigate the inevitable spike this will create.

But the basis it is being referenced here (on case numbers) is not one you can reasonably argue given how fast numbers have fallen since the data being used to argue it.
 
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My point being, they're in almost an impossible situation with so many rules which are changing almost by the week. Aside from dealing with everything else they get on with, and working throughout this going in and out of homes where in a lot of cases come into contact with people who perhaps don't all keep the best of hygiene putting themselves at risk. All this and they have to contend with Joe public shoving phones in their faces for some likes on the Internet at any given opportunity.

Nah, sorry, it wouldn't be me.

I understand all that and it's not a job I envy, having spent years dealing with Joe public myself.

My specific point was about West Midlands police, as they appear to keep on breaking the law and after once publically apologising for doing so and saying they were informing their officers on the legislation regarding masks and medical exemption, promptly went and did the same thing again. They then wrongly said the woman was fined for fraudently downloading a supposed exemption certificate that didn't belong to her, when the government website says people can do this although legally they don't have to or produce it, it's just an option they have. They even provide a template.

Filming is a two edged sword. Everytime a police officer deals with you you are filmed on their bodycam. I would advise anyone if they feel they are being unfairly challenged for whatever reason to film it themselves. We have all seen lot's of abuse of powers from these minor interactions in supermarkets to the death of George Flyod in America that without film footage would have been brushed under the carpet and/or denied it happened at all. Again it's also true there are wind up merchants out there goading and posting such for likes and kicks.

I did read France are going to ban anyone from filming law enforcement but they can still film you. That is going into dangerous territory and France being a country that stands up for their rights much more strongly than we do here won't take that lying down.
 
every life is important. ive pondered and debated on here the above fact that perhaps most of society can go back to their normal lives while those venerable should shield. but there doesnt seem to be an effective way of protecting the venerable. not in this country or any country for that matter.
I agree every life is valued. Daily testing and masses of PPE in hospitals and care homes would reduce the toll. Leaders over the years have at some point had to balance deaths against the national need.
 
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