COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[NeilYoungIsBack]

I spent half this morning persuading my best friend NOT to go to Wales next month and stay with family there. As they have believed the media talk that Wales is safer than plague ridden Greater Manchester so it will be safer for her (despite her serious asthma) to be in Wales.

I know it is not true and it s why this media mismanagement of the data really annoys me. It puts lives at risk.

The thing is there is currently a high degree of variation in case rates in different parts of Wales.

In parts of North and Mid Wales the rates are around 20-25 cases per 100,000, whilst in parts of South Wales it is over 400 per 100,000.

Unfortunately it was obviously that the Wales Firebreak was too short (and I made this point on here ad nauseam a few weeks ago). Mr Drakeford stupidly painted himself into a corner by promising at the outset that the lockdown would only last 17 days.

 

[Fred_Quimby]

Ye gods Boston up, again, 498.8 per 100 000.

 

[kaz7]

SAGE advisor Prof Andrew Hayward told the BBC: “My personal view is we're putting far too much emphasis on having a near-normal Christmas.We know respiratory infections peak in January so throwing fuel on the fire over Christmas can only contribute to this"

Fellow SAGE member Prof John Edmunds told ITV’s Peston: "I think that it would be prudent not to go wild at Christmas quite honestly, so I think that we will have to moderate and have a slightly disappointing Christmas, unfortunately.”

And Prof Gabriel Scally, a member of the unofficial Independent SAGE group, said: “It's no use having a good Christmas if you're burying friends and relations in the new year

 

[blue b4 the moon]

Spoken to our lads, going to meet at a country park in the middle (around the Birmingham area), have a walk & exchange presents.

Christmas day will be me & Mrs Moon only.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

There’s Manchester hospitality businesses that are saying that a decision on the 17th wouldn’t give them enough time to reopen before Xmas.

 

[Healdplace]

GM Scoreboard:

Happy news today.

Andy Burnham will be smiling as I assume he knows these details today.

KEY:- Borough / Cases today / Change from yesterday / Total cases across the pandemic / Cases in past week / Pop Score (cases per 100,000 people across the pandemic allowing place to place comparison - must rise every day and the lower number the better) / Weekly Pop (equivalent just cases across last 7 days per 100,000 population - rises and falls can occur - rises bad, means cases growing - falls good - the opposite).


Manchester 130 – down from 174. Total cases 30, 927. Weekly 1075. Pop score up 23 to 5594 . Weekly Pop down 13 to 194.

Rochdale 75 – same as yesterday. Total cases 12, 572, Weekly 638. Pop score up 34 to 5653. Weekly Pop down 4 to 287.

Wigan 67 – down from 123. Lowest in a very long time from Wigan, Had four times as many three weeks ago. Total cases 16, 444. Weekly 738. Pop score up 20 to leave the 4000 club to Tameside alone and up to 5003. Weekly Pop down 21 to 224.

Bolton 67 – down from 92 . Total cases 15, 032. Weekly 647. Pop score up 24 to 5228. Weekly Pop down 33 to 225.

Oldham 62 - down from 84. Total cases 14, 745. Weekly 596, Pop score up 26 to 6219. Joint most in GM today. Often would have been the lowest lately. Weekly Pop down 22 to 256.

Bury 49 – down from 61, Total cases 9681. Weekly 454. Pop score up 26 to 5069. Shares highest rise with Oldham. Weekly Pop down 14 to 223.\

Trafford 40 – up from 37. First day in a while Trafford not the best. But nothing in it as you can see. Total cases 8674. Weekly 289. Still falls week to week as best weekly numbers. Pop score up 17 to 3655. Weekly Pop down 5 to 122. Best (as in lowest) in GM.

Stockport 37 – down from 57. Total cases 10, 470. Weekly 441. Pop score up 12 to 3568. Best today in GM. First time for Stockport in a while to say that. Also lowest pop score rise in GM since September. Weekly Pop down 15 to 150. Cuts gap to Trafford on best weekly Pop to 28 and increases lead on them for best overall Pop score to 87.

Tameside 37 – down from 57. Total cases 10, 368. Weekly 358. Pop score up 17 to 4578. Weekly Pop down 13 to 158. One of now five boroughs under 200 weekly pop and that would normally be seen as low enough to be tier 2 if it were the only factor. But it isn't. There were none under 200 two weeks but Manchester joined today too.

Salford 36 – down from 67. Did you guess where it was to score this low? 3 weeks ago had 257 cases in a day! Salford back from basket case to GM borough with the top Pop score across the pandemic ahead of Stockport in July before the students came back. Total cases 13, 302. Weekly 425. Pop score up 14 to 5139. But for Stockport today would have been lowest in weeks and IS lowest in months for Salford. Weekly Pop down 10 to 164.

This was the best scoreboard for GM in many weeks.

 

[Millwallawayveteran1988]

When I see those stats, it would appear to
me that only full lockdowns work properly.

 

[Healdplace]

To see the falls here is a comparison of today versus 4 weeks ago.

Bolton 214 v 67

Bury 167 v 49

Manchester 372 v 130

Oldham 278 v 62

Rochdale 189 v 75

Salford 232 v 36

Stockport 201 v 37

Tameside 173 v 37

Trafford 127 v 40

Wigan 252 v 67

 

[Healdplace]

When I see those stats, it would appear to
me that only full lockdowns work properly.

I agree and made that point earlier. Pandemics spread by osmosis in a densely populated small nation like the UK where travel from anywhere to anywhere is simple in hours.

Only if the nation is all following the same rules will you stop the infected areas bleeding into the unaffected ones because people will seek out somewhere with more freedom. It is human nature.

We freed up Wigan and Stockport as both were low. Trafford had the option but locally decided to say no. Trafford benefited the most as cases were exported to the places people could go to seek more relaxed rules.

They are selling the success on the tiers. But really the best results have occurred in the past few weeks. It may have started slowing earlier when local rules applied but the lockdown imo should have continued nationwide up to maybe just before Christmas. If they are intent to make Christmas in effect a free for all.

Being in tier 3 is actually going to help minimise the damage Christmas will inevitably do. I know its hard to say no because livelihoods will be saved if Christmas freedoms are afforded but it is the unseen consequence that weeks of lockdown will follow that is the worst.

As I suspect even if the NW escapes the worst because of tier 3 up to Christmas the lockdown after it will not just be down south. You can bet on that

 

[Healdplace]

For Andyhinch - Cheshire East 68 cases - down from 70. Total cases 8910. Pop score up 17 to 2319.