COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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True_Blue69 said:
Where did I mention ICU beds? If they were saying the virus was a lot less dangerous without any scientific evidence I’m sure people would be questioning it. I was talking only about the new variants that seem to be suddenly happening that are miles more contagious based on nothing more than a hunch. It may well prove to be the case but until then they shouldn’t be talking as if it’s fact.
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My point still stands, all you are trying to downplay the effects of this pandemic. I know as i felt very much the same in the early mths as many on here will testify. But it is frankly ridiculous to think every western democratically elected goverment would take such social and economicly restrictive damaging actions without just cause. We have light at the end of the tunnel with the vaccines, we must see this thru to the end.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
My point still stands, all you are trying to downplay the effects of this pandemic. I know as i felt very much the same in the early mths as many on here will testify. But it is frankly ridiculous to think every western democratically elected goverment would take such social and economicly restrictive damaging actions without just cause. We have light at the end of the tunnel with the vaccines, we must see this thru to the end.
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Errm yes they would and exactly when do see this, or any other virus ending?
 
What this thread has done is grow my ignore list exponentially, it's a football forum and I can cope with strange/interesting views on most things but this thread being literally about life & death means that like in the outside world there's a need to walk away from 5* covidiots.
 
True_Blue69 said:
Reading some of the posts in the last few pages on here, it’s clear that reporting that the virus is suddenly 70% more contagious without any proof has done its job into well and truly scaring everyone into not mixing at Xmas. It’s worked so well there are already another 2 more contagious versions, one has all of 2 cases in the country! You couldn’t make it up.
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To think I was accused of ‘having an over-active imagination’ for suggesting that the Govt may have used the new strain tactically to politically justify their u-turn.
Against a backdrop that we all know there have been hundreds of mutations so far because this is simply a thing that viruses do as the scientists have always said. Yet now, every single mutation is going to start whipping up more hysteria and some people on here are already predicting the apocalypse.

Sadly this is the result of 24 news + social media being hungry for clicks and drama.

Many scientists have told people to stop flapping and perhaps many on here would do well to listen to that advice
 
davealvers said:
To think I was accused of ‘having an over-active imagination’ for suggesting that the Govt may have used the new strain tactically to politically justify their u-turn.
Against a backdrop that we all know there have been hundreds of mutations so far because this is simply a thing that viruses do as the scientists have always said. Yet now, every single mutation is going to start whipping up more hysteria and some people on here are already predicting the apocalypse.

Sadly this is the result of 24 news + social media being hungry for clicks and drama.

Many scientists have told people to stop flapping and perhaps many on here would do well to listen to that advice
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Are the many scientists who are genuinely concerned all lying?
 
davealvers said:
To think I was accused of ‘having an over-active imagination’ for suggesting that the Govt may have used the new strain tactically to politically justify their u-turn.
Against a backdrop that we all know there have been hundreds of mutations so far because this is simply a thing that viruses do as the scientists have always said. Yet now, every single mutation is going to start whipping up more hysteria and some people on here are already predicting the apocalypse.

Sadly this is the result of 24 news + social media being hungry for clicks and drama.

Many scientists have told people to stop flapping and perhaps many on here would do well to listen to that advice
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Most scientists are actually saying the government needed to take immediate and robust action to suppress the new strain. But you carry on with your head in the sand. I suppose you are now going to say that the majority of the scientists are complicit in a government conspiracy. Go ahead, say it.
 
davealvers said:
To think I was accused of ‘having an over-active imagination’ for suggesting that the Govt may have used the new strain tactically to politically justify their u-turn.
Against a backdrop that we all know there have been hundreds of mutations so far because this is simply a thing that viruses do as the scientists have always said. Yet now, every single mutation is going to start whipping up more hysteria and some people on here are already predicting the apocalypse.

Sadly this is the result of 24 news + social media being hungry for clicks and drama.

Many scientists have told people to stop flapping and perhaps many on here would do well to listen to that advice
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Sorry, but you're just wrong.

The initial reaction to this from the science community was caution, but there's now sufficient data to show it's almost certainly a real and severe problem.

Scientists tweeted summary and link to latest paper.

 
roubaixtuesday said:
Stay safe blues.

Try to minimise your contacts. Meet outside if you can. Stay in touch with anyone you fear to be lonely.

And let's cheer up by smashing Newcastle Boxing Day.

I'm out of here until after that.

Merry Christmas all.
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Merry Christmas and thanks for taking the time to source and present info for the forum. Stay safe.
 
oman0115 said:
Fiction then, based upon assumptions, from experts, blah blah blah. Fancy graph for nothing. The peak was first wave it was nothing like that. If that's enough for you fair enough.
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first off you need to understand what it is your looking at.

This is just a risk assessment. pretty much every business / gov / council around the world use these to asses everything. from a council deciding how much Grit they need for the roads in winter to Tesco's deciding how many sprouts they need for Christmas, to staffing levels needed for event x taking into consideration sickness etc etc.

"Worst case" is a one in a million event. something that in theory will never happen but needs to be considered just in case those one in a million odds hit.

In Covid's case that will probably be something like every hospital in the country has been over run, all beds and ventilators used, All the Nightingales are over run, medicine running out or has run out etc etc.
 
A few thoughts this morning:

1) Those thinking that climate will buy us respite will probably be wrong...see South Africa. It's the South African summer and it's growing rapidly.

2) The very fact that two mutations apparently developed independently involving the same amino acid sequence suggests that the natural advantage is significant.

3) What is the impact on the herd immunity threshold? The equation is simple but do we know what the new R0 is? And furthermore,this whole topic is weird in respect of Covid as the national epidemics crash at low prevalences which have led many to speculate that herd immunity will be a lot lower - partly because many many people do have some pre-existing immunity.

4 Why does it take so long to confirm whether the vaccines are effective against the variants? We've been tracking the evolution of the virus since day 1 and antigenic drift and vaccine evasion is a well-known phenomenon. Can we assume that Pfizer, Moderna,etc are working on vaccines for the new variants?

5) Assuming that the vaccines are still effective, then we should very quickly devise a plan to counter the growth of the new variants. Even with the Oxford vaccine, t's going to take a couple of months to vaccinate significant numbers and the original priority list does not touch the fast spreaders. If we don't change the vaccine priority we will all be in permanent lockdown for weeks. Blair's suggestion was not bad but there are probably better ways to do this.

6) Great hope rests on the vaccines. Assuming they are effective, there should be a wartime effort to get the first few millions into people. Seriously I would change the priority list relatively early so that teachers and all health-workers are vaccinated. The supply from the Oxford vaccine should allow us to vaccinate the elderly and make some strategic decisions regarding the variants.

The vaccination programme needs to be epic in its scale.
 
Marvin said:
A few thoughts this morning:

1) Those thinking that climate will buy us respite will probably be wrong...see South Africa. It's the South African summer and it's growing rapidly.

2) The very fact that two mutations apparently developed independently involving the same amino acid sequence suggests that the natural advantage is significant.

3) What is the impact on the herd immunity threshold? The equation is simple but do we know what the new R0 is? And furthermore,this whole topic is weird in respect of Covid as the national epidemics crash at low prevalences which have led many to speculate that herd immunity will be a lot lower - partly because many many people do have some pre-existing immunity.

4 Why does it take so long to confirm whether the vaccines are effective against the variants? We've been tracking the evolution of the virus since day 1 and antigenic drift and vaccine evasion is a well-known phenomenon. Can we assume that Pfizer, Moderna,etc are working on vaccines for the new variants?

5) Assuming that the vaccines are still effective, then we should very quickly devise a plan to counter the growth of the new variants. Even with the Oxford vaccine, t's going to take a couple of months to vaccinate significant numbers and the original priority list does not touch the fast spreaders. If we don't change the vaccine priority we will all be in permanent lockdown for weeks. Blair's suggestion was not bad but there are probably better ways to do this.

6) Great hope rests on the vaccines. Assuming they are effective, there should be a wartime effort to get the first few millions into people. Seriously I would change the priority list relatively early so that teachers and all health-workers are vaccinated. The supply from the Oxford vaccine should allow us to vaccinate the elderly and make some strategic decisions regarding the variants.

The vaccination programme needs to be epic in its scale.
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Point 2. this is also a mutation that was spotted in Brazil a while back but didn't gain traction. I think that was either luck or other mutations around the same time there made it untennable.

but agreed, this is looking like a natural progression for it.

I only heard this Brazil case from mass media so take with a pinch of salt.
 
grunge said:
Point 2. this is also a mutation that was spotted in Brazil a while back but didn't gain traction. I think that was either luck or other mutations around the same time there made it untennable.

but agreed, this is looking like a natural progression for it.

I only heard this Brazil case from mass media so take with a pinch of salt.
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I didn't know that. I have noted that Brazil's epidemic is growing again at a seasonally unexpected time. Hopefully is they are aware of a similar variant in Brazil then they would know if the two are related. There have been a lot of vaccine trials in Brazil.
 
Marvin said:
I didn't know that. I have noted that Brazil's epidemic is growing again at a seasonally unexpected time. Hopefully is they are aware of a similar variant in Brazil then they would know if the two are related. There have been a lot of vaccine trials in Brazil.
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This was back in April so I guess this strain didn't grab hold there and died out

www.newsweek.com

Mutation in New U.K. COVID Strain Found in Brazil Last Sp...

The new strain—dubbed the "B.1.1.7 lineage"—contains more than 20 separate mutations.
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com
 
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