COVID Data Thread

ENGLAND REGIONS BY CASE NUMBERS TODAY

CASES - Up/Down on day V Last Week


SOUTH EAST 6261 - DOWN 261 V 4609 - Up 1652 wk to wk - also over 2500 above the NW here now

SOUTH WEST 4039 - DOWN 391 V 3549 - Also still above NW

NORTH WEST 3708 - DOWN 673 V 3601 - Up by only 107 - one of the better regional performances

EAST 3655 - DOWN 506 V 3020

LONDON 3590 - DOWN 546 V 2993

WEST MIDLANDS 3100 - DOWN 81 V 2839

EAST MIDLANDS 2876 - DOWN 215 V 2485

YORKSHIRE 2750 - DOWN 937 V 3121 - HUGE FALL HERE TODAY AND DOWN WEEK TO WEEK ALONG WITH NORTH EAST - THE ONLY TWO NOT GOING UP - THOUGH NORTH WEST HAD THE LOWEST WEEKLY RISE OTHERWISE

NORTH EAST 1540 - DOWN 18 V 1672
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL SUMMARY




ADMISSIONS (WEDNESDAY) (always 48 hour behind on admissions - the rest of data is all from today)

821 V 807 last week


SO ADMISSIONS UP SLIGHTLY WEEK TO WEEK THOUGH STILL DOWN BIG FROM 955 TWO WEDNESDAYS AGO


London 99 v 82 (UP 17), Midlands 157 v 177 (DOWN 20), NE & Yorkshire 148 V 135 (DOWN 13) & North West 124 v 121 (UP 3)



NORTH WEST AND LONDON GOING UP AND THE OTHERS WELL DOWN



PATIENTS YESTERDAY V TODAY

6861 / 6777 Today.

Down by 84



Last Week the numbers were

7201 / 7072

Down by 129



A week to week FALL of 295 today. It was a week to week fall of 340 yesterday & of 330, 457 and 460 the days before.


SO THE FALLS HAVE FLATTENED BUT STILL FALLING WEEK TO WEEK - THOUGH THE CASE RISES WILL START TO FEED INTO THAT NEXT WEEK PROBABLY.


Last Friday patients were DOWN week to week by 41 (7113 TO 7072) - week before up 708 (6405 - 7113)



REGIONALLY London DOWN 19 at 1056, Midlands FLAT ON 1264 , NE & Yorks DOWN 46to 1295 & NW DOWN 5 to 1034.

Week to week London (UP 17), Midlands (DOWN 64), NE & Yorkshire (DOWN 117), East (DOWN 31), South East (DOWN 2) , South West (DOWN 46) and North West (DOWN 52) over the last 7 days.

So NW had modest falls AND is still below the numbers in London again after rising above



VENTILATORS YESTERDAY V TODAY


842 / 838 Today Down 4


Last week the numbers were 867 / 860 DOWN 7


So week to week today ventilators are DOWN by 22,

Last week they were UP week to week by 51



REGIONALLY London has 181 (DOWN 4), Midlands 178 (UP 1), NE & Yorkshire 123 (DOWN 4)
& North West 111 (UP 5)

NORTH WEST FELL WEEK TO WEEK BY 5 - NOT DOING AS WELL AS IT WAS A FEW DAYS AGO HERE
 
Bluehammer here were the cases and Pop Scores today in your two Kent areas so you can track them daily and compare them with GM to follow in later posts.

MEDWAY 142 cases today (DOWN from 189 yesterday) - Total cases 41,511 - Pop Score 14,871 (Up 51 today) & Weekly Pop Score 290 (UP 1)

DARTFORD 76 cases today (UP from 68 yesterday) - Total cases 18,157 - Pop Score 15,920 (Up 67 today) & Weekly Pop Score 378 (DOWN 10)
 
GREATER MANCHESTER BOROUGHS WEEKLY CASES


Oldham 624, Bury 628, Salford 746, Rochdale 817, Tameside 845, Bolton 891, Trafford 906, Stockport 940, Wigan 1241, Manchester 1531



Oldham still best of the pack but Bury nearly caught it today and Manchester nearly 600 ahead of Stockport seemed unlikely a week ago but Wigan 300 ahead seemed even more unlikely and at the rate they are rising may challenge Manchester for top spot. Stockport closed the gap on Trafford, Tameside and Bolton too.
 
THIS IS TODAYS ZOE ONGOING INFECTIONS GRAPH OVER THE PAST YEAR PLUS. YOU CAN SEE THE NUMBER OF ONGOING CASES FALLING OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO ON THE FAR RIGHT OF THE GRAPH - PEAKING AT OVER 1.2 MILLION - AND HOW THE DROP IS NOT FLATTENINGAS YET. IT IS LIKELY ON CURRENT TRAJECTORY THE NUMBER WILL FALL BELOW THE PEAK OF THE JANUARY WAVE (MID GRAPH) PROBABLY TOMORROW. AS YOU CAN SEE IT IS VERY NEARLY THERE.BUT WILL IT KEEP DROPPING LIKE IT DID IN JANUARY TO REACH THE LOWEST LEVEL IN MARCH - JUNE? OR WILL IT PLATEAU AND RISE AFTER A COUPLE OF WEEKS AS IT DID AFTER A SHORT FALL IN AUGUST?

1636750905117.png
 
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Healdplace said:
THIS IS TODAYS ZOE ONGOING INFECTIONS GRAPH OVER THE PAST YEAR PLUS. YOU CAN SEE THE NUMBER OF ONGOING CASES FALLING OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO ON THE FAR RIGHT OF THE GRAPH - PEAKING AT OVER 1.2 MILLION - AND HOW THE DROP IS NOT FLATTENINGAS YET. IT IS LIKELY ON CURRENT TRAJECTORY THE NUMBER WILL FALL BELOW THE PEAK OF THE JANUARY WAVE (MID GRAPH) PROBABLY TOMORROW. AS YOU CAN SEE IT IS VERY NEARLY THERE.BUT WILL IT KEEP DROPPING LIKE IT DID IN JANUARY TO REACH THE LOWEST LEVEL IN MARCH - JUNE? OR WILL IT PLATEAU AND RISE AFTER A COUPLE OF WEEKS AS IT DID AFTER A SHORT FALL IN AUGUST?

View attachment 29820
Click to expand...
Something like 15 million (officially) up to 35 million (Zoe) have caught Delta (area older the graph over 120 days / 10) - I really can't see infections accelerating much (if at all) unless a new variant hits.
 
ZOE APP NUMBERS

FROM TODAY


More good falls today in all measures. The graph as you see above is still falling pretty steeply much as it did in January when the wave ended.



Predicted cases now:-

On 66,446 DOWN from 69,299 - A fall of 2853 after falls of 3248, 2657,1693 and 1573 on days before that.

Down week to week from 83,690 - a fall of 17,244 after falls of 19, 838 17,202 &16,045 the days before that.


Ongoing symptomatic cases also still falling.

On 1,077,308 FROM 1,096,203 yesterday- a fall of 18, 895 after falls of 19 17,101 day to da yafter a fall of 17,803 the day before. So looking a little flat.

Was 1,213,227 last week- a fall of 107,377 after falls of 97, 218 & 20, 544 days before - so definite hints of the fall slowing a bit here.





IN THE NORTH WEST:- Cases fell again today but NW as a region rose into 6 th place out of the 12 UK regions as it fell from 944 / 1226 TO 900 / 1174 - a good drop but South West fell by a little more. These two are neck and neck on Zoe exactly as they are in the daily cases today


Every England region was down today -some by less than NW but few by more - and Wales and Northern Ireland did too - N Ireland by the most and they had the best real cases fall too..

Only Scotland rose on Zoe today and they had the biggest rise in the real cases today too. Showing how well Zoe is tracking reality right now.

Scotland were UP FROM 677 / 963 TO 685 / 971 - NOT a big jump and they stay in the lower tier wth only London below them falling like a stone right now on Zoe.

Northern Ireland stays THE most infected region on Zoe in the whole UK because all the rest fell too despite it falling by the most today FROM 1009 / 2303 TO 894 / 2130 - one of the biggest daily drops on Zoe lately.


London West Midlands and Scotland were today joined out of the highest watch zone by BOTH Eest MIdlands and South East - who have been falling a lot lately.

North West and South West are not far behind doing the same if they keep falling over the weekend.



Within NW most places falling now too.

Wyre has dropped like a brick in a week from 40 K to 16 K in a week & Fylde has dropped off the danger list altogether the past week from 30K to just 6 K. Now under everywhere in GM bar Oldham after being above all ten boroughs a week ago.

St Helens drops too onto 18K. Warrington though is edging up daily and now over St Helens on 24,138.

Wirral is now the hghest outside GM again on 31, 819

Much the same in Cheshire - Cheshire East has dropped to 22, 442. Still above the also falling Cheshire West which has nw gone sub 20K to 19,141 today.



In Greater Manchester pretty well all are fairly flat but edging daily up or down.

Oldham up by all of 7(!) to just 5028 still MILES ahead in best spot.

Salford is dropping and moved into second 11,244. Tameside is going up but still third on 12,119.

Stockport remains fourth but fell more than of late onto 13,253 after being flat in the 14Ks for days.

Most other boroughs are bunched between 16 and 21 K and edging up (Rochdale just under 17 K, Bolton just over 17 K, Trafford mid 17 K, Manchester up to high 19K and Wigan still going upward as second highest on Zoe after a week of rises now on 21,250. Matching the top of the table scores in the real data Wigan is clocking up as it takes its turn at the top of GM merry-go-round of top trumps.

Leaving Bury still making the biggest rise again today way up yet because it is a small borough - or Zoe are over estimating them - (bit of both I think) - not so obvious as Wigan in the day to day case numbers as 100 sounds good compared to larger boroughs but in Bury it should be around 20! . Even so Bury is up again (another 1500) Now on 35, 908 - one of the highest ever Zoe totals in GM and above all the rest in the North West right now.
 
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GREATER MANCHESTER TODAY CASES V POP SCORES

BOROUGH - CURRENT WEEKLY POP SCORE - Up/Down on day (LOWEST SCORE BEST) V POP SCORE Last Week // CASES (c) TODAY v CASES LAST WEEK // POP SCORE RISE TODAY - UP TO - TOTAL POP SCORE OVER THE WHOLE PANDEMIC (LOWEST IS STILL BEST)


OLDHAM 263 (UP 9) ) V 251 RISING // 84 c v 63 c // POP SCORE 35* - UP TO 18,114 - * Joint lowest Pop Score today. Highest in GM over all of the pandemic

MANCHESTER 276 (UP 2) V 281 // 190 c v 182 c // POP SCORE 35* - UP TO 17,764 - *Joint lowest Pop Score today

SALFORD 284 (DOWN 3) V 308 // 108 c v 116 c // POP SCORE 41 - UP TO 17,888

BOLTON 309 (LEVEL) V 307 RISING // 119 c v 117 c // POP SCORE 41 - UP TO 17,089

STOCKPORT 323 (DOWN 7) V 394 // 122 c v 151 c // POP SCORE 41 - UP TO 16,438 - Lowest in GM over all of the pandemic

BURY 330 (DOWN 11) V 409 // 81 c v 104 c // POP SCORE 43 - UP TO 17,287

ROCHDALE 366 (UP 17) V 393 // 120 c v 83 c // POP SCORE 54- UP TO 17,964

TAMESIDE 372 (DOWN 18) V 395 // 110 c v 150 c // POP SCORE 48 - UP TO 17,499

WIGAN 375 (UP 23) V 372 RISING // 214 c v 137 c // POP SCORE 64 *- UP TO 17,593 - * Highest Pop Score today

TRAFFORD 381 (UP 6) V 404 // 124 c v 108 c // POP SCORE 52 - UP TO 16,842 -










Wigan had the worst day today and almost overtook Trafford on top spot.

Stockport had another good day and climbed a place with Bolton once best in GM now in its sights.

Trafford lost another 11 Pop Score points to Stockport giving it a now what seems an unassailable lead for the lowest Pop Score in GM across the entire pandemic - a whopping 404.

But Trafford has slipped backwards a bit and stopped Wigan from topping this unwanted chart.
.
Though Oldham is losing its lead for the highest Pop score across the pandemic by way of its run of very low numbers as neighbour Rochdale goes in the opposite direction toward the top of the tree and caught up another 19 today - though still 150 to go for Rochdale to catch Oldham and so this is not an imminent event. But a couple of weeks of this and it might becone one.
 
Blue and still suffering said:
I wonder if the rise in cases is linked to COP 26?
Click to expand...
Was listening to Jason Leitch last night and he was saying that number of cases directly associated with COP26 was quite low - he had a bet with the Chief Constable of Scotland that the number of arrests associated with COP26 would be higher than the number of covid cases associated with it. Up to last night he was winning but that was before today's results.
 
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UK HOSPITAL NUMBERS


PATIENTS:-


ENGLAND 6777, N IRELAND 397, SCOTLAND 759, WALES 621 UK TOTAL 8554 (DOWN 103)

Only N Ireland was up and not down today


VENTILATORS:-


ENGLAND 838, N IRELAND 27, SCOTLAND 55 WALES 67 UK TOTAL 987 ( DOWN 18)

All four nations fell here today



Both numbers fall today and now mid 8000s in UK hospitals and ventilators have fallem back below 1000
 
ZOE APP NUMBERS


MIXED DAY, GOOD NEWS IN THE NORTH WEST BUT LITTLE DOUBT NOW THE FALL IN CASES IS SLOWING AND MAY REVERSE IN THE COMING WEEK



Predicted cases now:-

65,618 FROM 66,446 DOWN by just 828 - by far the smallest drop over the past 10 days - which most recently were 2853 yesterday & 3248, 2657,1693 and 1573 on days before that.

Down week to week from 81,309 - a fall of 15, 691 after falls of 17,244, 19, 838, 17,202 &16,045 in the days before that.

Certainly starting to look like a flattening off The next few days will tell us if it means a plateau and reversal entirely. Hopefully not.


Ongoing symptomatic cases still falling.

On 1,056,822 FROM 1,075,481 yesterday- a fall of 18, 659 after a fall of 18, 895 the day before. So looking a little flat. This measure would lag the day to day one by a few days in a directional shift.

Was 1,188,364 last week- a fall of 131,542 after falls of 125,856 & 116,700 on the days before - so still going the right way here - though there is also a slowing down evident too.

AGAIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL TELL US IF THIS IS A REAL SLOW DOWN TOWARDS A REVERSAL OR A BLIP

BUT THE CASES RISING IN THE REAL NUMBERS WEEK TO WEEK IS UNFORTUNATELY SUGGESTIVE THIS FALL MAY SOON STALL ON ZOE TOO
 
ZOE APP DATA TODAY:- REGIONS & NORTH WEST

GOOD NEWS HERE



IN THE NORTH WEST there was much better news today:- Cases fell again AND the NW as a region FELL into 7 th place out of the 12 UK regions.

MORE IMPORTANTLY IT BECAME THE FIRST NORTHERN REGION TO DROP OUT OF THE HIGHER BAND TO JOIN THE LOWER BAND WHICH HAS BEEN PR(MARILY SCOTLAND AND THE SOUTH FOR WEEKS WITH THE MIDLANDS REGIONS JOINING IN OVER THE LAST WEEK. THE CASE FALL SEEMS TO BE MOVNG SOUTH TO NORTH IN EBGLAND



North West fell to 869/ 1142 FROM 900 / 1174 - a good drop - and it has fallen there steadily from 1308/1657 just 16 days ago. BUT the question is how real is that fall or how temporary and if the other Zoe data is to believed w8ll it start to rise.

THE BAD NEWS BEING IT ALREADY IS FURTHER SOUTH


Several England regions were up today.

North East fell today like the other northern regions did - but on 1110/1647 not enough to stop it taking TOP place in the 12 UK regions.

Northern Ireland fell to second as it was down more than NE on 811/1995.

Wales is now third despite also falling well to 963 / 1348.

THE OTHER THREE LEFT IN THE TOP WATCH ZONE BAND ARE EAST (DOWN), SOUTH WEST (FLAT) & YORKSHIRE (ACTUALLY DOWN BY MORE THAN NORTH WEST TODAY AND COULD DROP INTO THE LOWER WATCH ZONE TOMORROW)

The MIddle watch zone (NOBODY has been in the lowest one for a week or two now) has six in it - with North West heading that group.And one rise away from probably going back up into the top zone. So where it goes in coming days is vital.

Following it are East Midlands that ROSE slightly and is now very close to North West numbers (869/1142) on 849/1158.

West Midlands are also VERY close and these three regions all but neck and neck WM were actually UP today on 835 / 1137.

South East is next and also edging UP today on 835/1137 - Scotland next to best - also edging up on 699 / 990 & best of all London (YOU GUESSED IT!) edging up on 669 / 856


WE SEEM TO BE AT A CRUCIAL TURNING POINT FROM ALL THESE ZOE NUMBERS AND THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL TELL US WHERE THE WINTER IS HEADED I SUSPECT
 
ZOE NUMBERS IN THE NORTH WEST & GREATER MANCHESTER


Within NW most places falling now too. Hence the NW numbers going the right way on Zoe.

Wyre has dropped VERY fast in just over a week from 40 K to 13 K in a week & Fylde has dropped off the danger list altogether the past week from 30K to just 5 K. A number that would have taken it from worst in GM to best in days!

Warrington though is pretty flat and high and one of the worst in the NW around 24 K and now well abovea fast falling St Helens on just 16 K.

Wirral is now the highest outside GM again on 33,006 and only Bury is just ahead of it regionally. Though I think dubiously - see below.

Much the same in Cheshire - Cheshire East has dropped to 21,476. Still above the also falling Cheshire West which is dropping much faster and now on 16,980.



In Greater Manchester half are up and half down so in balance like much of the data as to which way it will tip over the next week.

Oldham up by tiny steps for fourth day running but to just 5187 easily in best spot.

BUT Salford is dropping fast and moved into second and gunning for Oldham's top spot down 2K and becoming the second lowest watch borough in GM on 9252.

Stockport's good few days take it up to third after another daily drop onto 12,682 after being flat in the 14Ks for days earier in the week and over 20K 10 days ago.

Tameside is going up now by 1500 today but still fourth on 13,548. But another borough Zoe has trouble estimating well.

Three boroughs are bunched in the 17 Ks after a bit of a jump up from the best 4 (Rochdale 17,852, Bolton 17,887 and Trafford dropping now happily onto 17,147.

Unfortunately that leaves 3 boroughs now in the upper watch zone (over 20K).

Manchester up the most from 19K to 21,334 is in 8th and Wigan still inching upward - and its real cases are matching this escalation sadly - now second highest in GM on Zoe on 21,482.

Leaving Bury still far and away at the top today BUT for the first time in a week going DOWN on 34,866.

Zoe might well be over estimating this small borough and its numbers are low even when its rate is high so it has mininal damage on GM in total - and cases are not so obvious as Wigan in the day to day case numbers where lower averages = bigger raw numbers.

Even so according to Zoe Bury is the worst in the North West and one of the worst in the UK right now. But is not even top of the GM ten regions on weekly Pop Scores - so I think their numbers have to be geting estimated a bit higher than reality on Zoe.
 
SCOTLAND DATA

NOT AS GOOD AS IT MIGHT LOOK UNFORTUNATELY

13 deaths - was 24 last week - This undeniably IS much better - but deaths are from then and cases from now

3052 cases - was 3249 last week - Down but....

10.1% positivity - was 8.7% last week - Shows that testing is much lower and positives growing in the ones done

780 patients - up 21 on yesterday - was 823 last week - Sadly the once clearly falling paients is clearly now going up again and I expect England to go the same way next week and we will be heading back towards 50,000 cases before we know it. Hope I am wrong here obviously.

59 ventilated icu - UP by 4 on yesterday - was 55 last week

LITTLE TO CHEER IN THESE NUMBERS
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

3 Deaths - was 6 last week

1806 cases - was 1194 last week


ALL WE GET HERE AT WEEKENDS BUT MUCH LIKE SCOTLAND - DEATHS DOWN AS THEY ARE A LEGACY OF THE LOW CASES - BUT CASES WELL UP AND IF IT CONTINUES WILL TURN INTO RISING HOSPITAL NUMBERS AND MORE DEATHS IN THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO
 
NO Wales data or England hospital data as usual at weekends.

Wales will post Friday numbers only tomorrow and Saturday & Sunday together on Monday.

All weekend England hospital data together on Monday as usual if the IT does not break down again as it has more than once recently.
 
157 all settings deaths - UP from 155 last week

England 141 v 125 last week - which is disappointing but unsurprising on the recent England death numbers

Cases 38,351 - always low on Saturday as no Wales numbers remember.

Was 40,375 yesterday with nearly 3K from Wales so the 'fall' of 2024 on then is misleading.

Versus last Saturday (also no Wales) was 30, 693 - so UP 7658 on then.

England only 33, 493 - is actually UP 338 on yesterday (last week it FELL in England Fri - Sat by 2240

Versus last week England is UP 7243 from 26, 250 - most of the increase is in England as you can see.
 
NORTH WEST & GREATER MANCHESTER SUMMARY



A mixed day for Greater Manchester but on balance good and very good for the NW.

Manchester, Stockport and Tameside UP 104, 56 and 46 day to day. Was not so good.

Almost everyone was up day to day only Bolton (down 9) and Wigan (by 41) were not.

GM UP on the day 226 to 1498 - most of that being the three big rises above totalling 206.

However, North West was UP on the day by just by 27 to 3735. Which is a good result for the region again but going up 199 more than the entire NW rise is not especially good news in GM.

Week to week the North West is UP 253 from 3482 - which is again a pretty low split of the weekly rise in England of over 7000. So again a very good number for the region.

Greater Manchester is UP just 61 of that 253 which is well below expectation for the region - and as you know week to week numbers are always more important than day to day ones.

So all told the NW and GM remain far from the main reason that the numbers in England are going up. Which matches the good news for the region in today's Zoe data.



Manchester on 294 was up 8 week to week - same as yesterday and was 116 over Stockport who had a worse day today than of late but not the worse- in second on 178 though that is only up 5 week to week.

Others up week to week were Bolton up 23, Rochdale up 13, Salford up 8, Wigan up 6 and Tameside up 40.

So mostly tiny rises outside of Tameside and Bolton.

Bury on 89 and Oldham on 96 the only sub 100 numbers. Both down week to week.

Stockport did poorly enough that it actually lost 5 pop score points to Trafford today cutting its lead as best in GM to 'just' 399.

Tameside had the biggest pop score rise on 69 - though Rochdale pushed it close on 67.For arguably the worst day.

Nobody had a particularly good day as shown by the lowest Pop score being Bolton on 38 despite being up by 23 week to week.
 
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ENGLAND REGIONS BY CASE NUMBERS TODAY

CASES - Up/Down on day V Last Week


SOUTH EAST 5844 - DOWN 417 V 4213 - Up 1631 wk to wk - also over 2100 above the NW still

LONDON 4088 - UP 498 V 2950 - and even London now above the NW and up over 1000 week to week

SOUTH WEST 4035 - DOWN 4 V 2981 - UP 1054 wk to wk also still above NW

EAST 3902 - UP 247 V 2958 - another region ahead of the NW and up 1000 or so week to week

NORTH WEST 3735 - UP 27 V 3482 - Up by only 253 wk to wk - the best regional performance as you can see


CLEARLY AS YOU SEE THE SOUTHERN REGIONS ARE BEARING THE BRUNT OF THE CASE RISES THOUGH STARTING TO FALL FROM A HIGHER BASE


WEST MIDLANDS 3392 - UP 292 V 2785

EAST MIDLANDS 3107 - UP 231 V 2363

YORKSHIRE 3005 - UP 255 V 2486 -

THESE OTHER NORTH AND MIDLAND REGIONS UP LESS THAN THE ONES FURTHER SOUTH BUT NORTH WEST STILL HAD A BETTER DAY UP LESS ON DAY AND WEEK TO WEEK


NORTH EAST 1481 - DOWN 59 V 1323
 
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Bluehammer here were the cases and Pop Scores today in your two Kent areas so you can track them daily and compare them with GM to follow in later posts.

MEDWAY 193 cases today (UP from 142 yesterday) - Total cases 41,704 - Pop Score 14,940 (Up 69 today*) & Weekly Pop Score 307 (UP 17)

DARTFORD 71 cases today (DOWN from 76 yesterday) - Total cases 18,228 - Pop Score 15,982 (Up 62 today) & Weekly Pop Score 377 (DOWN 1)



* Matching Tameside - the highest GM pop scorer today if you want to do a comparison
 
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