COVID Data Thread

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

Still going up and North West still not out of the woods - Though recall from yesterday a small impact from the no data posted on Monday so held over. Still clearly going up though.

158 with 31 North West

Last week 136 with 31 North West AND week before 89 with 20 North West



By Region:- East 15, London 14, Midlands 32, NE & Yorkshire 33, North West 31, South East 21 & South West 12


North West trusts:- 8 in Pennine Acute (Oldham/Rochdale) MOST TODAY IN ENGLAND, 5 in Blackpool, 4 in St Helens, 3 in Stockport, 2 each in Manchester, Mid Cheshire, Salford and Southport AND 1 each in Chester, Tameside & Warrington

By Age: 20 - 39 (1) 40 - 59 (11), 60 - 79 (84), 80 PLUS (62)


SADLY THE NUMBERS ARE ONLY SHOWING SIGNS OF ESCALATING IN RECENT DAYS

2 November (yesterday) recorded 24 on the first day. By far the highest in the past few months and the highest since 5 March - which went on to record 147 on the day,

27 October currently has 132 deaths - the highest daily covid death total in England hospitals since 6 March

31 October on just day three is already on 102 deaths - the first time three figures have been reached after just three days since 101 on 8 March.

With one day still to go to increase numbers the weekly total of deaths at five days is already way up on last week.

The weekly numbers over the past 2 months have been:

493 - 508 - 577 - 526 - 508 - 398 - 380 - 447 - 538 .....

AS you can see it flattened off after the peak in Northern cases and then fell until 2 or3 weeks ago when the southern regions took off and bumped numbers up

That legacy translating a week or two on from cases to deaths has resulted in the latest week WITH another 24 hours to go but already totalling as the next weekly number in the above list - 643

That already is the highest England hospital deaths week from Covid since the tail end of rhe winter wave in the early days of March.

Scarily when THAT was at its peak about 6 weeks earlier than that March equivalent the weekly total in England had been 7474 deaths - over 11 TIMES where we are now.

The vaccines mean that will not happen this time and cases have fallen in the past week or so and IF that continues then the sustained fall will translate into deaths falling too in a week or so.

But for the moment you can see why hospitals such as Stepping Hill have today stopped all routine visits to cope with their doubling of Covid patients in the past week or two.

Three deaths there too today - the most in Stockport on one day since that worst ever Covid wave last Winter
 
Healdplace said:
Not day to day but there are studies every now and then.

In July about 90% of those in icu were unvaccinated. And about 60% of those hospitalised.

More recently a report showed that about 20% of the most seriously ill patients in hospital were tragically unvaccinated women who were pregnant.
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The last part makes me sad.

90% in ICU unvaccinated is an eye opener
 
Apologies if the above is too detailed but it seemed an important thing to report today. As hospital numbers are the most important data of all right now. On them now - not cases per se - will turn any changes made to regulations.
 
Len Rum said:
As a matter of interest do you know why the booster is Pfizer and not AZ?
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They decided it should be an Mrna vaccine to top up as most of the early more vulnerable had AZ which is a different type.

The mrna ones seem to have waned a little less quickly than AZ over the 6 months and so they presumaby think it is best for the winter month period to see us into the better weather.

But they are not banning AZ as I reported. Some may not be able to have the Pfizer or Moderna ones.

The numbers seem fairly modest in difference but clear that Pfizer waned less fast than AZ - so I guess they hope having both types in your body will prime the body to respond in the maximum number of ways these vaccines can do.

Not sure but I would assume if you had two Pfizer before you might be offered AZ this time on the same basis.

But I do not know that. Clearly they are giving AZ to some as the experience I reported of them finding locations to get that for the lady who asked for it today when it was decided not to give her Pfizer shows.
 
217 all settings deaths - was 207 last week

181 England v 169 last week

41, 299 cases - up 7434 on yesterday - but down 2642 on last week

England only 34, 317 - UP 5786 on yesterday - but down 3185 on last Wednesday.
 
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Greater Manchester's day was UP on yesterday but in fact its split of the rises from the NW was pretty low.

GM on 1637 cases - UP 223 from 1414.

BUT North West as a region is UP 948 to 4574. - so 223 is below expectation of around a third of the current GM splits of the region.

Week to week GM is up too - but by just 23 from 1614 last Wednesday. So well within limits of case counting day to day variations.

BUT North West is UP week to week 166 from 4408. So again tiny numbers so not much read into them but well below the expected rise based on GM v NW population.

Within GM: Full details later BUT -

Bolton way up to its highest in some time. Day to day and week to week. Nobody under 100. Only Manchester over 200 - and in fact was also way up over 300. Biggest gap between the city and the rest (134 in fact!) in weeks.

SAlford and Tameside had the biggest week to week drop.

Stockport was up but not by much and was not in the top two Pop Scores today again. And slightly increased its lead over Trafford again.

Rochdale had a strange day - down 6 on week but the highest Pop Score by far and on 161 cases much higher than it should be.

Stockport as expected crashed into the 16 K club today and Tameside into the 17K club. Every GM borough is now in one or other of these - the closest together the 10 boroughs have ever been.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL SUMMARY

BIG FALL IN PATIENTS TODAY - THOUGH NW ONLY A SMALL PART OF THE DROP SADLY



ADMISSIONS (MONDAY) (always 48 hour old is admissions - the rest below is all today)

899 v 865 last week (up 34).

Midlands and North West fell week to week:-

London 103 (up 5 from 98), Midlands 137 (down 3 from 140), NE & Yorkshire 166 (up 2 from 164) & North West 131 (down 8 from 139)




PATIENTS TODAY 7291 - DOWN 219 from 7510 yesterday. Biggest drop on weekday in a while.

Last Week numbers were UP by 68 to 6951.

A week to week rise of 340 today. It was up week to week 652 last Wednesday.

So the regular week to week slowing of the rise continues.

Also the week to week fall yesterday was 627 yesterday.


REGIONALLY London down 44 to 1050, Midlands down 22 to 1335, NE & Yorks down 67 to 1491 & NW down 12 to 1139. So NW down the least today.

Week to week London (down 1), NE & Yorkshire (up 15), Midland (up 15), East (up 52), South East (up 57), South West (up 59) and North West (up 57) over the last 7 days.


VENTILATORS TODAY 854 - Down 5. Last week it was down 4 to 799.

So up week to week by 55, The week to week rise last week was 53.

REGIONALLY London has 186 (down 2 on day), Midlands 170 (down 3 on day), NE & Yorkshire 137 (down 4 on day) & North West 121 (down 2 on day)

All the large regions have fallen today but North West still higher than in many weeks

The biggest rise today was in the South East - up 7 onto 78 - up from 69 last week
 
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BlueHammer85 said:
if you can include Kent is doing good or bad on hospitalisations only . that would be cool.
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I do post the South East region in the hospital data and when anything stands out such as it did today.

Kent is a mixture of smaller trusts - just like GM has multiple trusts in it - let alone the North West - so I do not even split those into individual regions as that really would take all day.

Happy to track numbers and hospital numbers for a region within Kent - health region that is - if those are the numbers you want. Such as East Kent or Kent & Medway - two examples of South East trusts that are included in the data.

There may well be others but I might not recognise the name as being IN Kent just as someone not in GM might mistake Tameside as a London region. Surprising how many do confuse the River Tame with the Thames. Often used on quiz shows to trip people up!

Bit more guidance on what you want and I will try to do what you seek beyond what I already do with the NHS regions day to day.

Though tomorrow as there is a match tonight.
 
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Healdplace said:
I do post the South East region in the hospital data and when anything stands out such as it did today.

Kent is a mixture of smaller trusts - just like GM has multiple trusts in it - let alone the North West - so I do not even split those into individual regions as that really would take all day.

Happy to track numbers and hospital numbers for a region within Kent - health region that is - if those are the numbers you want. Such as East Kent or Kent & Medway - two examples of South East trusts that are included in the data.

There may well be others but I might not recognise the name as being IN Kent just as someone not in GM might mistake Tameside as a London region. Surprising how many do confuse the River Tame with the Thames. Often used on quiz shows to trip people up!

Bit more guidance on what you want and I will try to do what you seek beyond what I already do with the NHS regions day to day.
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south east / Dartford / Medway.
 
Dartford & Gravesham is the NHS trust AND the other is Medway


This kind of localised hospital data is unhappily some days old (though it may exist in more local sources).

As of a week ago there were 28 patients in the D & G trust - up 5 on a week ago and up 10 on 2 weeks ago.

3 patients are on ventilators and there were 4 on each of the two previous weeks.

The equivalent numbers for Medway are patients 24 - 25 - 23 and ventilators 1-2 -1

AS YOU SEE THIS IS WHY I RARELY POST THIS KIND OF DATA. NUMBERS ARE SO SMALL IN INDIVIDUAL TRUSTS THERE IS LITTLE OBVIOUS PATTERN UNLESS THEY REALLY ESCALATE.


South East admitted 78 patients versus 69 last week

It was the ONLY region in England where patients went UP today not down - though just by 1 to 842.

It was 785 last week & 652 the week before that.~

I looked back to April and it has never been near 785 in those 6 months

Ventilators also are rising fast in the region. Up 69 - 76 in the past week (2 of them today).

This hospital increase fits its very high cases - still the highest region here - and though down from the 7000+ it had a couple of weeks ago that were then way over the rest was still on 5997 today - after rising by 1079 on yesterday - which is 1423 more cases today than the NW in second place.
 
WALES DATA

17 deaths - was 12 last week

2799 cases - was 2664 last week

11.2% positivity - was 12.2% last week

697 patients - was 687 last week

73 ventilated - was 63 last week
 
Here is the graph of the Zoe Ongoing Infectious cases today.

Though not doing full Zoe updates now I wanted to post this as a lot has happened over the past few days.

Predicted daily cases have fallen from the peak (which was slowing down last week) of around 93,000 to yesterday 88, 592 and today 86, 401 - so dropping steadily now.

And as the Zoe graph below of current ongoing infections shows it has now seemingly peaked - at a higher level than it did in the January wave - around 1.25 MILLION infected people currently in UK - and is also now finally today falling .

Today is 1, 226, 964 cases - FROM 1, 227,456 yesterday - it has been slowing for a week or two and now finally has begun to go downwards.

It is probably optimistic to expect it to fall as steeply as it did in January in that graph as it was heading out of Winter into Spring and we are now going into Winter. Might be more flat like that wave focused in the NW this tine last year you see on the graph pre the UK wide winter one.

But who knows how these waves will pan out as the vaccine - which was not even here at all last Autumn - is steadily building immunity now much more than it was in January at that previous wave peak.


1636029423897.png
 
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Just a few more notes on Zoe. AS regions start to fall like those numbers in the graph infer there have been BIG shifts in the table of the 12 UK regions.

Wales has fallen to second after some time as the worst region - and in the past 5 days fallen a lot.

North East (which has been rising in the daily cases too) is now the region on Zoe with most cases too.And the only one in England actually rising right now.

North West has fallen all the way to seventh from top less than 2 weeks ago. The reason why GM percentages are rising in the daily cases appears to be because much of the region is falling as well as GM slowly doing so.

South West has dropped like a brick too from top to fifth as those mistested cases disappear presumably. And fell the second most today in England. North West fell the most in England today so we will see how that matches the real case numbers later. Though Wales fell most of all in UK.

London is also doing very well and is the lowest England region and fallen enough to join Scotland (well ahead as the lowest numbers in UK still) back in the lower watch zone. All the other 10 regions still being in the top one.

Scotland (who are still falling on Zoe and best in UK easily) no longer have Northern Ireland as partner - who were also in the lower zone last week - as it has steadily gone up day by day since and is now in fourth place in the upper zone well above the North West
 
I will not update Zoe daily. Just now and then - whenever something changes that is a significant shift. But it is still predicting well what is happening in the North West.

The Blackpool area (Fylde & Wyre) have gone up and up and are both just under 40K - easily highest in NW.

Wirral in the west is still very high on 33,688

The Cheshire regions have started to fall but Cheshire East on 28, 171 remains above all of GM and over Cheshire East (on 21, 326)

In Greater Manchester only Bolton and Wigan are NOT falling (which the real case data supports well by the way) - the order is:- SALFORD (26,358), TRAFFORD (25,913), ROCHDALE (18,257), TAMESIDE (17,587), BOLTON (17.005), MANCHESTER (15,670), WIGAN (15,538), STOCKPORT (14,958), BURY (10,053) & OLDHAM (6318)

As you can see Stockport has improved a lot in recent days and Oldham best of all falling from 20K to 6K in 5 days.
 
South East and Kent on Zoe - by the way.

South East is in 6th & has climbed above North West on Zoe to flag up that region as requested.

Dartford is on 31,496 - well above all of GM - but below the Blackpool area for comparison.

Medway is 20,901 Would be third in GM on that number.
 
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