COVID Data Thread

ZOE APP NUMBERS

Another very significant fall today in all measures.

Predicted cases down by the most yet in one day since the many weeks of rises.

On 78, 470 - DOWN 2839 from 81, 309 yesterday was a fall of 2381 day before.

Down week to week from 91, 763 - a fall of 13, 293 in 7 days.

Ongoing symptomatic cases also falling fast now.

On 1,187,298 today from 1,196,616 yesterday

Was 1,220,799 last Sunday - a fall 33,501 across the week.

There is no sign of the downward curve flattening off as yet. The reverse in fact. It is getting steeper on Zoe.


IN THE NORTH WEST:- Most numbers are falling - NW as a region down in 7th place now having fallen regularly over past 7 days from 1309/1660 to 1083/1367

East is the only England region that rose (very slightly) today - though Scotland and Wales are flat. And London is falling fast enough it could even catch Scotland as best in UK.

Within NW most places falling. Wyre is still the highest over 40K and Wirral ver 30K also high.

In Greater Manchester pretty well everywhere is now falling though mostly quite slowly. Odham on just 4643 is MILES ahead in best - i fact further ahead than I recall any one borough being. Indee Stockport is now second BEST on Zoe in GM but on 14,078 - so almost 10K ahead! Stockport has only edged down by a hudred or two a day for past few days. Almost everyone else is bunched between 15 and 19K with Bury making the biggest rise in past few days. Salford has dropped significantly out of the 20Ks from top spot leaving Trafford now the only borough in the 20Ks though also falling on 23,571.
 
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SCOTLAND DATA

2 deaths - was 0 last week

2908 cases - was 2513 last week

11.1% positivity - was 9.4% last week

793 patients - down 30 on yesterday - was 910 last week

57 ventilated icu - up 2 on yesterday - was 64 last week


THE HOSPITAL DATA IS GOING VERY MUCH THE RIGHT WAY BUT CASES ARE A TAD UP TODAY AS IS THE POSITIVTY....NO PANIC AS YET. BUT SCOTLAND WERE FIRST TO FALL AND MIGHT BE FIRST TO SHOW ANY CHANGE IN THE OTHER DIRECTION SO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THESE NUMBERS THIS WEEK
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

4 deaths - was 6 last week

1035 cases - was 1001 last week

ALL WE GET AT WEEKENDS
 
Total 3 nations deaths today 15 - Was 15 last week



Total 3 nations cases today 6526 - Was 6530 last week


ABOUT AS FLAT AS YOU CAN GET!


All with England to add later
 
Remarkable numbers in Greater Manchester today. Hopefully not some kind of lost data scenario (there is no mention on Gov UK Of this which would be normal if there was). But they look too good to be true even given this is weekend testing.

Only three boroughs NOT under 100 today. Manchester one of them but on one of its lowest scores in months (128) (it was 316 just 4 days ago!) and in third place behind the other two - which do NOT include Trafford or Stockport who both DO get sub 100 scores for the first time in weeks.

The two ahead of Manchester are two of the GM boroughs that Zoe is flagging up as going upward when most are heading down. Bolton (on 133) and Wigan (on 150 - top score today).

Low score as usual is Oldham on 72. So the GM spread is the lowest at just 78 in many weeks.

Though only Bolton is up week to week (by 20).It has been climbing on Zoe numbers all week unfortunately.
 
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ENGLAND REGIONS BY CASE NUMBERS TODAY

CASES - Up/Down on day V Last Week


SOUTH EAST 4190 - Down 23 V 4895

SOUTH WEST 2879 - Down 102 V 3981

NORTH WEST 2816 - Down 666 V 3863 * Largest fall yoday

LONDON 2736 - Down 214 V 3014

EAST 2536 - Down 422 V 3816

WEST MIDLANDS 2388 - Down 397 V 3381

YORKSHIRE 2388 - Down 98 V 3158

EAST MIDLANDS 2106 - Down 257 V 2534

NORTH EAST 1222 - Down 101 V 1482
 
Bluehammer here were the cases and Pop Scores today in your two Kent areas so you can track them daily and compare them with GM to follow in later posts.

MEDWAY 137 cases today (UP from 102 yesterday) - Total cases 40,801 - Pop Score 14,616 (Up 48 today) & Weekly Pop Score 298 (down 10)

DARTFORD 51 cases today (DOWN from 73 yesterday) - Total cases 17,843 - Pop Score 15,649 (Up 49 today) & Weekly Pop Score 443 (down 18)
 
GREATER MANCHESTER BOROUGHS WEEKLY CASES


Oldham 626, Bury 691, Salford 750, Rochdale 826,Tameside 834, Bolton 844, Trafford 882, Stockport 1106, Wigan 1189, Manchester 1556
 
GREATER MANCHESTER TODAY CASES V POP SCORES

BOROUGH - CURRENT WEEKLY POP SCORE - Up/Down on day (LOWEST SCORE BEST) // CASES (c) TODAY v CASES LAST WEEK // POP SCORE RISE TODAY - UP TO - TOTAL POP SCORE OVER THE WHOLE PANDEMIC (LOWEST IS STILL BEST)


OLDHAM 263 (DOWN 4) // 72 c v 80 c // POP SCORE 30 - UP TO 17,931 - Highest in GM over all of the pandemic

MANCHESTER 280 (DOWN 15) // 128 c v 209 c // POP SCORE 23* - UP TO 17,563 *Lowest Pop Score today

SALFORD 285 (DOWN 15) // 84 c v 122 c // POP SCORE 32 - UP TO 17,679

BOLTON 293 (UP 7) // 133 c v 113 c // POP SCORE 42 - UP TO 16,852

WIGAN 360 (DOWN 6) // 150 c v 170 c // POP SCORE 45 - UP TO 17,314

BURY 362 (DOWN 17) // 93 c v 125 c // POP SCORE 48* - UP TO 17,056 * Highest in GM today

TAMESIDE 369 (DOWN 15) // 96 c v 138 c // POP SCORE 43 - UP TO 17,221

ROCHDALE 370 (DOWN 7) // 91 c v 109 c // POP SCORE 41 - UP TO 17,701

TRAFFORD 371 (DOWN 24) // 95 c v 151 c // POP SCORE 40 - UP TO 16,560

STOCKPORT 376 (DOWN 29) // 94 c v 179 c // POP SCORE 32 - UP TO 16,209 - Lowest in GM over all of the pandemic


Only Bolton had a bad day and saw its Weekly Pop Score rise.

Stockport had the best day with the largest week to week fall and back under 400 to its lowest number since 19 September - but stays with the highest POP score in GM today just ahead of Trafford.

But as you can see just 16 now separate the top six GM boroughs when there was a gigantic gulf between Trafford and Stockport and the rest a couple of weeks ago. So literally any of those six could be top tomorrow given that closeness of numbers.

Stockport's really low Pop Score today gained another 8 back v Trafford for lowest Pop Score across the pandemic meaning Stockport's lead is now 351.

Oldham is doing so well right now its imminent entry as the first GM borough into the 18K club keeps getting pushed back and on current numbers will now likely be Tuesday or Wednesday.

On this score today Rochdale in second place behind Oldham for the highest Pop score across the whole pandemic is catching its heighbour daily with higher Pop Scores. Though still 230 behind so not likely to catch Oldham for another two or three weeks at least unless Rochdale stay high.

Only 113 now top to bottom in weekly POP scores - which is down 25 on yesterday and way below where it was a month or so ago. Pushing 600.

The peaks and troughs have evened out as I said a few weeks ago was what we wanted to watch out for if GM was returning to normality.

We have got there and the only concern right now is Bolton which seems to be going up when the rest are falling, It is over 6 months since the mass vaccination push there given its local reluctance. It mght be time to do a booster push now too.
 
ZOE APP NUMBERS


More falls today in all measures. Though a little hint of slow down or flattening off perhaps.



Predicted cases down by less than past couple of days but still a substantial fall.

On 76,897 FROM 78,470 - DOWN 1573 after a fall of 2839 from 81,309 day before and a fall of 2381 day before that.

Down week to week from 90,186 - a fall of 13,289 over the 7 days after a fall of 13,293 the day before that.


Ongoing symptomatic cases also falling.

On 1,171,971 FROM 1,182,907 yesterday (down 10,936 in day) from 1,193,793 day before (down 10,886)

Was 1,223,831 last Sunday - a fall of 48, 140 (up from 33,501 yesterday) across the week.





IN THE NORTH WEST:- Most numbers are falling but by less today - indeed NW as a region rose into 6th place as it fell only a tad and less today than some other regions from 1083/1387 TO 1071 / 1374

No England region failed to go down today - though Wales did rise in third place (on 1283 / 1723) and BOTH the other nations did too

Scotland - sill easily best in UK - rose a little for third day running to 668 / 956

And Northern Ireland now THE most infected region on Zoe in the UK (taking over from the North East ewhich fell a lot today) is UP onto 971 / 2279

London is falling daily too and on 758 / 961 could even catch Scotland as best in UK.

London and Scotland remain the only two nations out of the highest watch zone.




Within NW most places falling but still very slowly.

Wyre is still the highest but sub 40K now on 38K and Wirral is edging UP on over 31K also high. Fylde has dropped quite a bit but on 21K is still above most of GM. As is St Helens that has been in 23/24K for a week now.



In Greater Manchester pretty well everywhere is now falling though mostly quite slowly. Oldham on just 4815 is UP but by just 172 and MILES ahead in best spot. More ahead than I recall any one borough being.

Stockport is now third BEST on Zoe in GM but just inching down day by day though finally out of the 14Ks onto 13,903. But that is well down on 21K this time last week. However, neighbour Tameside just edged above it into second falling more to 13,060.

Most boroughs are bunched between 15 and 17K (Bolton, Manchester, Rochdale, Salford & Wigan) with Bury making the biggest rise again today (4000) to 23,236 - the highest in GM right now.Trafford fell a little today and is just behind and the only other above 17K on 22,770.
 
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WALES DATA

This covers Saturday & Sunday - two days - as always on Mondays - so the comparisons wk to wk are valid
14 deaths - was 17 last week

4303 cases - was 4983 last week

686 patients (Friday) -was 691 last week

73 ventilated (Friday) - was 75 last week
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA OVER WEEKEND

SATURDAY:-

115 with 27 North West :- Was 108 with 18 last week & 88 with 18 week before


SUNDAY:-

14 with 0 North West:- Was 33 with 3 NW last week & 21 with 12 NW week before


MONDAY:-

24 with 8 North West:- No Number last week (it was added to Tuesday due to an IT crash but was around 20/25 ish) & was 25 with 2 NW two weeks ago


Numbers are fairly flat but NW deaths still high as a legacy of the high cases a few weeks ago in the region

Headline:

Not going up quite as much as they were a week or so ago and looks to be starting to flatten off a bit a week or two now into the drop in cases and last week's fall in hospital patients - as we would expect and hope to see.
 
ENGLAND WEEKEND DEATHS IN DETAIL:


By Region:-

East 10, London 7, Midlands 40, NE & Yorkshire 29, North West 35, South East 19, South West 13

TOTAL 153

By Trusts:

North West had the highest numbers over the weekend - some of the areas in the region and GM that have had high cases lately seeing the sad consequence a week or two later:-

Blackpool 8, Stockport 6, Manchester 4, North Lancashire 4, 2 each in Bolton, Pennine Acute, Mid Cheshire, St Helens & Wirral AND 1 each in East Lancashire, Tameside & Morecambe


By age:- 20 - 39 (1), 40 - 59 (19), 60 - 79 (66), 80 PLUS (67)

VERY HEAVILY WEIGHTED NOW TO THE OVER 60s AGAIN SHOWING THE GREAT URGENCY OF PERSUADING ANY OF YOUR FAMILY IN THAT AGE RANGE WHO HAVE NOT HAD THE BOOSTER TO DO SO ASAP
 
SCOTLAND DATA

0 deaths - was 0 last week

2012 cases - was 2065 last week

11.0% positivity - was 10.8% last week

803 patients - up 10 on yesterday (Monday rises are common) - was 931 last week

54 ventilated icu - down 3 on yesterday - was 68 last week
 
NORTHERN IRELAND

11 deaths - was 10 last week

1028 cases - was 948 last week

8215 WEEKLY CASES - WAS 7993 FRIDAY LAST REPORTED - WAS 8227 LAST WEEK

38 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 36 ON FRIDAY LAST REPORTED _ WAS 48 LAST WEEK

378 Patients - was 380 on Friday last repirted - was 326 last week

31 Ventilated - was 32 on Friday last reported - was 28 last week
 
LATEST WEEKLY CASES SPLIT BY AGES AND SEX IN NORTHERN IRELAND FROM TODAYS 8215 CASES

THE YOUNGER AGES ARE FALLING A BIT - THOUGH STILL DRIVING THE WAVE TO A LESSER DEGREE THAN WSAS TRUE AT THE START - AND THE OLDER ONES RISING A LITTLE

NOW 33% V 15% - IT WAS A FEW WEEKS AGO 45% V 10%

THE MIDDLE AGES ARE RISING TOO AS THE UNDER 20s FALL AND INFECTIONS SPREAD ACROSS FAMILIES FROM THE KIDS - WHY THE BOOSTERS ARE AND WILL BE EXTENDED TO THOSE MIDDLE AGE RANGES

ALSO WHY CASES ARE FLAT BUT DEATHS ARE NOW INCREASING A LITTLE AND THE BOOSTER JABS FOR THOSE OVER 60 MATTER SO MUCH IF YOU HAVE ANY HOLD OUTS IN YOUR FAMILY THINKING TWO JABS IS ENOUGH


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ENGLAND HOSPITAL SUMMARY

ANOTHER FALL IN PATIENTS TODAY



ADMISSIONS (THURSDAY TO SATURDAY) (always 48 hour behind on admissions - the rest of data is all from today)

717 THU / 686 FRI / 688 SAT v LAST WEEK (SAME DAYS) 853 / 840 / 741


ALL DOWN WEEK TO WEEK THOUGH SMALLEST DROP WAS ON SATURDAY - BUT TWO WEEKS AGO THESE SAME THREE DAYS WERE 799/ 760 / 756 AND THREE WEEKS AGO THEY WERE 730 / 750 / 743

SO ADMISSIONS ARE LOWEST IN MORE THAN A MONTH

Midlands rose slightly week to week but the others including North West fell week to week. But NE & Yorkshire REALLY fell:-

Over the three days the regional admissions week to week were:-

London 252 v 260 (down 8), Midlands 400 v 455 (down 55), NE & Yorkshire 381 V 430 (down 49) & North West 342 v 385 (down 43)

South East down to 117 from 124 week to week



PATIENTS FRI/ SAT / SUN / TODAY

7072 / 6874 / 6910 / 7075 Today.

Risen by 3 since Friday



Last Week the numbers were

7113 / 7155 / 7311 / 7535

So went UP every day and across the weekend by a total of 422 versus just 3 this weekend.



A week to week FALL of 460 today. It was a week to week fall of 401 yesterday, 281 the day before and 41 on Friday.

So every day over the weekend improved the situation - meaning it was a lot better than the rising numbers infer.




Last Monday to Monday patients were UP week to week by 734 v DOWN today 460



REGIONALLY London UP 13 to 1052, Midlands DOWN 17 to 1311, NE & Yorks DOWN 76 to 1336 & NW UP 29 to 1115. So NW unfortunately had the worst of the weekend though it was a rise of 57 last weekend - so an improvement.


Week to week London (down 52), NE & Yorkshire (down 62), Midlands (down 87), East (down 21), South East (up 25) , South West (down 75) and North West (down 37) over the last 7 days.

So not a bad week for NW overall.




VENTILATORS OVER THE WEEKEND

860 / 856 / 849 / 869 UP 9.


Last weekend the numbers were 809 / 812 / 815 / 859 UP 50



So week to week today ventilators are UP by 10 by 51, The week to week rise last week was 83.



REGIONALLY over the weekend London has 183 (up 1), Midlands 178 (up 5), NE & Yorkshire 137 (down 1)
& North West 114 (down 2)



SAD TO REPORT EAST AGAIN HAD WORST NUMBERS ACROSS THE WEEKEND - UP 12 onto 105 - UP FROM 84 last week - BIGGEST WEEKLY RISE IN ANY REGION

NORTH WEST FELL WEEK TO WEEK BY 1
 
57 all settings deaths - 32 in England

No real comparison possible with last Monday as only the 13 out of hospital were recorded last week due to a data error in England hospitals

But today as there were 24 in hospital there were just 8 out of hospital added I assume



32, 322 cases up 2017 on yesterday but down 7755 on last week.

England only today 24, 979 - up 1200 on yesterday & down 7102 on last week

Similar week to week fall as yesterday.
 
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