COVID Data Thread

NO WALES DATA ON SATURDAYS



SCOTLAND DATA

18 deaths - was 30 last week

2972 / 4180 cases = ???

Yesterday 2972 / 7258 became 3956 on Gov UK

Last Saturday on Gov UK whatever it was became 3456

1291 patients - down from 1302 yesterday & 1456 last week

35 ventilated ICU - was 32 yesterday & 41 last week



NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

3 deaths - was 5 last week

3590 cases - was 3476 last week


THIS IS ALL WE GET FROM THE THREE NATIONS ON SATURDAYS
 
1643549909673.pngToday's Zoe graph showing the now undeniable uptick in the wave of cases in the UK. Coming from the impact of the new Omicron variant in part I would expect and from school testing in the under 10s that is still giving high numbers and spread to families.

Predicted cases today are 182,605 - up 6168 since yesterday - the daily rise is increasing.

Up in week from 147,265

Ongoing cases today up 22,641 on yesterday ON 2,232,436 - this rise is growing fast unfortunately. It was 13,155 the day before.
 
Zoe summary of regions


Will not go into all the detail in an effort to minimise posting from here on. Just highlights

Northern Ireland up the most (252) to go top of the 12 UK regions. London still rising fast (up 138) in second.South East is third (up 131)/ Yorkshire fourth(up 41).

North East is the only faller today (but down just 13).

North West stays 9th - up by 62. South West the only England region lower (up 132 and could even go ahead of NW tomorrow if current tracks continue).

Wales in 11th (up 55) & Scotland 12th and best in UK (up 65) are the two lowest scorers.

In the North West most places are still falling. St Helens is the only place I was tracking outside GM still over 50K on 51,663 and actually rising quite a bit.

Cheshire East has been falling now for over a week but very slowly and is on 44,381

In Greater Manchester the same is true.

In order (lowest to highest today)

1:Oldham - top but now rising daily on 16,059

2:Salford - still falling well on 24,920

3:Tameside - halved in just over a week and falling fast on 32,373

4: Stockport - turned a corner a couple of days ago and fell the most -2K today - on 37,561

5: Rochdale - has beenslowly rising for several days on 39,769

6: Bury - dropped fast from 73K in 8 or 9 days to 43,569

7: Bolton - has been rising slowly but steadily for a week here on 47,783

8: Trafford - falling small numbers daily over past week on 48,131

9: Wigan - is the fastest faller right now - down in just over a week 25K to 52,337

10: Manchester - had been edging up daily but past 4 days has flattened off down just 28 today on 54,263
 
WALES DATA (From Friday only as usual on Sundays)

8 deaths - was 8 last week

2840 cases - was 2827 last week

15.2% positivity - was 15.5% last week

As you can see pretty flat here
 
SCOTLAND DATA

2 deaths - was 4 last week

Cases:- ??? 7258/2972/4180 posted but it will be somewhere in between those three and not calculated by Gov UK until tomorrow

Last week it was 3518

1217 patients - was 1291 yesterday & 1440 last week

32 ventilated icu - was 35 yesterday & 38 last week

BUT AS YOU SEE THE HOSPITAL DATA IS TRACKING LIKE ENGLAND AND FALLING SO HOW MANY CASES EXACTLY IS MUCH LESS IMPORTANT THAN THAT FACT EVEN IF WE HAVE TO GUESSTIMATE
 
UK NUMBERS


Scotland cases still to add tomorrow when Gov UK work it out.

Otherwise:- (despite them omitting N Ireland data as being too late to include I have added this on below as it was posted just before Gov UK said it was late)

91 all settings deaths - 75 in England

Last week was 75 in UK with 58 in England


65,468 cases - was 78,317 last week (but included Scotland added retrospectively here remember)

England only

59,559 today - lowest since 14 December

Was 69,137 yesterday & 68,913 last Sunday


Those N Ireland numbers:

3069 cases and 6 deaths today were V 3059 cases and 5 deaths last week.

Are why the Gov UK numbers will look different from above for anyone looking at their site tonight.



SO the UK total is 65,468 and 91 deaths not the number Gov UK post - plus whatever Scotland cases turn out to be as the only thing now to add.

The deaths total is now complete as it was only the Scotland cases Gov UK could not work out.
 
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ENGLAND REGIONS TODAY

Southern regions and the northern and midlands in a very clear split now though everyone is down today.



SOUTH EAST on 12,769 - DOWN from 13,747 V 13,026 last week & 10,864 two wks ago

LONDON on 8411 - DOWN from 9581 V 9326 last week & 9612 two wks ago

EAST on 7707 - DOWN from 8598 V 8389 last week & 7174 two wks ago

SOUTH WEST on 6845 - DOWN from 7539 V 7123 last week & 5739 two wks ago

WEST MIDLANDS on 5703 - DOWN from 7957 V 7857 last week & 7383 two wks ago



NORTH WEST on 5360 - DOWN from 6305 V 7019 last week & 7326 two wks ago




YORKSHIRE on 5326 - DOWN from 5601 V 6681 last week & 7298 two wks ago

EAST MIDLANDS on 4884 - DOWN from 6026 V 5633 last week & 5459 two wks ago

NORTH EAST on 2203 - DOWN from 2818 V 3545 last week & 4253 two wks ago



The order of the regions is staying much the same every day but the numbers are falling across the board as you can see.

The south east very clearly the main area where the cases are still high. But pretty much everyone is down.

THIS IS THE LOWEST NORTH WEST NUMBER TODAY SINCE TEN DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS - SO MORE OR LESS IN THE ENTIRE OMICRON WAVE~

NORTH WEST PEAKED ON 5 JANUARY ON 29,360 CASES (NEARLY 6 X TODAY) IT WOULD SEEM
 
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GREATER MANCHESTER BOROUGHS TODAY



TOTAL CASES 1812 - DOWN by 436 from 2248 yesterday


North West 5360 - DOWN by 945 from 6305 yesterday

GM 33.8% of NW - the lowest GM split of NW in a few days. Which is good news.

GM is also down from 2498 last week by 686

NW is down in week from 7019 by1659

GM is a bit over par in the split of that fall 41.4% - the higher the better when a fall, of course.


So a good a day here.



Stockport is still struggling most and had the worst numbers again today - closest to top than it has been in weeks today as Manchester is falling more. But worst here is only relative. As SK are going down week on the week like the rest - just not by as much. Though Zoe showed more progress today - so they may see better things await next week. And they have fallen every day by small numbers for a week in the case here. So that is a good start.

Every GM borough - even Stockport - had a sub 100 Pop Score for the first time in weeks.

And look at the best in GM - Oldham - first time since Omicron took hold that any borough has fallen below 100 cases. Less than 2 weeks ago Oldham was on 626 cases - nearly 7 times today.

Zoe has tracked OL perfectly too - though they have it going back up and Stockport falling in past two days so we will see if that switch pans out over next day or two.





MANCHESTER 331 - DOWN 88 on day & DOWN 106 on week - lowest score here for many weeks. Pop Score 59 (POP 28,366)

STOCKPORT 272 - DOWN 5 on day & DOWN 9 on week. Pop Score 93 *. Highest Pop in GM today again. But cases are falling just by small numbers daily. Lost 27 more back to Bolton today as has been doing regularly for lowest score in the pandemic and now 637 behind. Indeed Oldham is closer daily to Stockport and could become the challenger ahead of Stockport as early as tomorrow.(POP 27,726) * Highest Pop Score in GM today.

WIGAN 224 - DOWN 51 on day & DOWN 38 on week Pop Score 68. Much better here too. (POP 28,689)

BOLTON 189 - DOWN 24 on day & DOWN 66 on week. Pop Score 66. Into the 27K club yesterday. (POP 27,089 ) Lowest Pop Score in GM across the pandemic.

SALFORD 180 - DOWN 23 on day & DOWN 39 on week - Pop Score 68 - two or three days away from being first in GM to enter the 30K club. (POP 29,810) *Highest Pop Score in GM across the pandemic.

TRAFFORD 150 - DOWN 46 on day & DOWN 76 on week. Pop Score of 63. (POP 28,486)

BURY 125 - DOWN 55 on day & DOWN 52 on week. Pop Score 72 (POP 28,234)

ROCHDALE 124 - DOWN 27 on day & DOWN 88 on week. Pop Score 56 (POP 28,607)

TAMESIDE 120 - DOWN 69 on day & DOWN 115 on week. Pop Score 53 (POP 28,870)

OLDHAM 97 - DOWN 62 on day & DOWN 97 on week. Pop Score 41* - lowest daily Pop score in GM in 2022 so far. Cuts the gap to Stockport by another 52 to just 49 for the right to challenge Bolton for lowest Pop Score in GM for first time ever. After being HIGHEST not long before Christmas. Looks certain to happen over the next 48 hours. But will still be way behind Bolton up top.(POP 27,775) * Lowest Pop Score in GM today
 
I'd look away from the Government website tomorrow when the numbers are posted as they're adding reinfections to the case numbers.
Not bad news as it will lower the death rate from Covid rather dramatically.

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Yes as I think I said last week when they announced this change I never understood why they did ignore them. But cases are far less important really than they once were so numbers going up would not really change that much. The hospital data is the key and, whilst I suspect that will rise a bit in coming weeks as cases are now increasing again quite clearly on Zoe, so an inevitable coincident patient rise is to be expected, the ventilators dropping in the rematkable way that they are is the signle most important stat.

As long as that goes on we are heading into the brighter uplands. That going significantly in the other direction (not just a small uptick that sheer increased numbrs might create) would be the only bad news I can think of right now that really matters.

But this is looking less and less likely that even the more infectious variant of Omicron will lead to that.
 
WALES DATA (This is two days - Saturday and Sunday - as always on a Monday)

11 deaths - was 11 last week

4528 cases - was 4327 last week

19.5% positivity - was 19,8% last week

816 patients (last report Friday) - was 792 last Monday

20 ventilated - was 19 last Monday
 
Gov UK has announced todays update will not be at 4 pm but an unknown time later due to the extra work required today to add all reinfection numbers.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS OVER THE WEEKEND

Headline:- Deaths are slightly up over the weekend but overall week to week numbers are so far down again. Tomorrow's catch up day from the 4 of the 7 regions who do not report anything on Sunday & Monday will be key. But deaths are not going up by much if at all.That is clear.

Appears cases have topped out on JAN 10 / JAN 11 - on 170 & 172 respectively after days of add ons.

However, some days since are in the high 160s - notably JAN 22 on 168 - which could yet eclipse the above numbers. Bt likely only just if so. Seems like deaths are going to peak out around this daily number. And well under 200 on a day. Which we would have taken I think when Omicron arrived.

The add ons tomorrow with what will be the big catch up number will make things clearer.



SATURDAY:-

191 with 30 North West -

WAS 171 with 34 North West last week and 160 with 35 NW the week before


SUNDAY:-

29 with 10 North West -

WAS 15 with 2 North West last week and 42 with 9 NW last week the week before


MONDAY:-

19 with 9 North West -

WAS 19 with 10 North West last week and 31 with 8 NW the week before


Weekend total 239 with 49 North West

V 205 with 46 North West last week AND V 233 with 52 North West the week before

S O ALL IN ALL PRETTY FLAT NUMBERS
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS OVER WEEKEND - DETAILS

By Trust:-


SAT (191):- East 21, London 23, Midlands 43, NE & Yorkshire 48, North West 30, South East 19, South West 7

Most by Trust :- 9 each in Bradford & Leicester

NW Trusts:- 6 in Blackpool, 5 in St Helens, 3 each in Pennine Acute & Wigan, 2 each in East Lancashire, Manchester, Stockport & Wirral AND 1 each in Bolton, East Cheshire, Mid Cheshire, Morecambe & Salford

By Age: - 40 - 59 (16), 60 - 79 (76), 80 PLUS (98)


SUN (29):- East 10, North West 10, South West 9

Most by Trust:- 6 in Dorset

NW Trusts:- 5 in North Lancashire, 2 in Christie's Cancer hospital Manchester AND 1 each in East Cheshire, Tameside & Warrington

By age:- 40 - 59 (3), 60 - 79 (10), 80 PLUS (16)


TODAY (19):- East 9, North West 9, South West 1

Most by Trust:- In the North West

NW Trusts:- 7 in Liverpool AND 1 each in Clatterbridge Cancer, Wirral & Morecambe

By age:- 20 - 39 (1), 40 - 59 (1), 60 - 79 (8), 80 PLUS (9)
 
SCOTLAND DATA

0 deaths - was 0 last week

Cases:- ??? - was 2956 last week V whatever magic number is created from the ones including 5887 / 1506 / 4338 today - none of which will be it.

17.0% positivity - was 21.2% last week

1206 patients - was 1217 yesterday & 1435 last week

33 ventilated icu - was 32 yesterday & 38 last week
 
1643644930882.png

NORTHERN IRELAND NUMBERS TODAY FROM THE 29,071 CASES OVER THE PAST WEEK

41.3% aged 19 and under 6.7% aged 60 and over.

The latter is increasing slowly. It was just over 5% a week or two ago.

But not close to the 9.2% it was in the early days of Omicron Or the 22% it was last January
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

3 deaths - was 4 last week

4159 cases - was 3932 last week

WEEKLY CASES 29,071 - WAS 29,950 LAST WEEK

CARE HOME OUTBREAKS 186 - WAS 215 LAST WEEK

338 patients - was 420 last week

16 ventilated - was 18 last week. Lowest since July.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA

Key Numbers

Admissions (Saturday) 1325 V 1277 last week & 1604 two weeks ago - first wkly rise in a while



NW 188 V 187 V 291

NW the only region to go up (allbeit by 1)


Elsewhere still down:-

London 176 V 183 V 253

Midlands 247 V 268 V 314

NE & Yorkshire 247 V 267 V 335



Rest of data today:-


Patients 13,331 - UP by 339 from 12,992 yesterday V 14,563 last week

Last week the rise was 229

EVERY region UP today

RISES

East UP 64 to 1248, London UP 44 to 2492, Midlands UP 49 to 2526, NE & Yorkshire UP 22 to 2370 , South East UP 79 to 1585 AND South West UP 38 to 869

NORTH WEST UP by 43 to 2241 (was 2681 last Monday)



Ventilators down yet again (15th straight fall) by 8 to 449 - V 521 last week

Lowest since 12 July

NW 52 - UP 4 V 64 last week


The rest

East UP 1 on 48 V 50 last week, London down 158 on 156 V 185 last week, Midlands UP 3 on 78 V 94 last week, NE & Yorkshire FLAT on 63 V 75 last week, South East UP 1 on 32 V 37 last week, South West UP 1 on 18 V 16 last week
 
Still no estimated time for the UK cases. It is a big job rejigging the numbers to include re-infections as I assume they are adding in the older data as well.

It seems likely to create an impression of a rise (possibly a bit of a jump) not the recent falls we have witnessed.
 

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