Gabriel
Well-Known Member
Apologies if posted elsewhere earlier.
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COVID Data Thread
- Thread starter west didsblue
- Start date
Apologies if posted elsewhere earlier.
grunge
Well-Known Member
Apologies if posted elsewhere earlier.
thanks for the info.
from what I can see our projections were based on 0.8%.
grunge
Well-Known Member
Looking at this 0.6% thing. if that pans out. it would take 750k cases a day to hit Alpha's hospitalisation rate at its peek las Jan. 0.8 is the figure that was used in our models which is about 500k cases a day to match that point.
the question is, how real is the threat of 500-750k cases a day.
the question is, how real is the threat of 500-750k cases a day.
roubaixtuesday
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Looking at this 0.6% thing. if that pans out. it would take 750k cases a day to hit Alpha's hospitalisation rate at its peek las Jan. 0.8 is the figure that was used in our models which is about 500k cases a day to match that point.
the question is, how real is the threat of 500-750k cases a day.
Even half of Alpha is a big problem. 250-400k per day is credible, but not certain. Though we'd run out of testing capacity so never actually record that many.
Healdplace
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Roubaix can you help me understand these Omicron percentage numbers?Even half of Alpha is a big problem. 250-400k per day is credible, but not certain. Though we'd run out of testing capacity so never actually record that many.
How can Omicron be dominant in London and cases be doubling every couple of days there when their past six day case numbers have been:- 19,294 - 23,272 - 26,608 - 25, 551 - 21,594 - 22,750
I get that cases are compiled over several past days but if THAT reflects Omicron doubling twice and becoming totally dominant why are the numbers so flat at most.
Weekend lag is a factor - people not testing will be too - these seem milder cases often so lots will not even be testing others avoiding it so as not to lose work or miss Christmas isolating - but are they just guessing the actual numbers? As I do not see how the above remotely reflects an ongoing doubling effect every day or two beyond the first few days maybe.
But I am no mathematician. Decades since my A level!
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roubaixtuesday
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Roubaix can you help me understand these Omicron percentage numbers?
How can Omicron be dominant in London and cases be doubling every couple of days there when their past few days numbers have been:- 19,294 - 23,272 - 26,608 - 25, 551 - 21,594 - 22,750
I get that cases are compiled over several past days but if THAT reflects Omicron doubling twice and becomong dominant why are the numbers so flat at most.
No idea.
Some combination of
- reporting issues and delays
- testing maxxed out
- people choosing not to test to avoid Christmas isolation
- totally unexpected behaviour of the virus
-
Neither am I, but is clearly not doing as the modeling would leave you to believe.Roubaix can you help me understand these Omicron percentage numbers?
How can Omicron be dominant in London and cases be doubling every couple of days there when their past six day case numbers have been:- 19,294 - 23,272 - 26,608 - 25, 551 - 21,594 - 22,750
I get that cases are compiled over several past days but if THAT reflects Omicron doubling twice and becoming totally dominant why are the numbers so flat at most.
Weekend lag is a factor - people not testing will be too - these seem milder cases often so lots will not even be testing others avoiding it so as not to lose work or miss Christmas isolating - but are they just guessing the actual numbers? As I do not see how the above remotely reflects an ongoing doubling effect every day or two beyond the first few days maybe.
But I am no mathematician. Decades since my A level!
grunge
Well-Known Member
Roubaix can you help me understand these Omicron percentage numbers?
How can Omicron be dominant in London and cases be doubling every couple of days there when their past six day case numbers have been:- 19,294 - 23,272 - 26,608 - 25, 551 - 21,594 - 22,750
I get that cases are compiled over several past days but if THAT reflects Omicron doubling twice and becoming totally dominant why are the numbers so flat at most.
Weekend lag is a factor - people not testing will be too - these seem milder cases often so lots will not even be testing others avoiding it so as not to lose work or miss Christmas isolating - but are they just guessing the actual numbers? As I do not see how the above remotely reflects an ongoing doubling effect every day or two beyond the first few days maybe.
But I am no mathematician. Decades since my A level!
to throw my 2p in the mix, and its just muddies the water to be honest( on top of what roubaixtuesday added)
-We dont sequence all cases so I think there is a lot of hit and miss going on with Omicron. I think our sequencing is at about 10-15% of all positive PCR's It could be the nature of the random sequencing playing a role here.
-Im still unclear if the dashboard is showing any reinfections at all, I really wish they would clear this one up. so the numbers could be flattened out by the fact they are excluding all previous infected and is hiding a lot of omicron as its main mode of transmission is reinfection but we're only showing data for those who are 1st time infection.
Healdplace
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Interesting - thanks all.
A doctor just said on TV that they do not count an infection if you have had a previous infection. You just get recorded once.
I think that is what they said (I was half listening and not sure how they would even know given the huge numbers) but that is crazy IF true given the difference between variants and the fact you can be infected by both and be just as transmissable to others. Perhaps she meant only one test is recorded not multiple ones before you test positive. Though that was not what she appeared to say.
But given the mess some of our data recording and reporting has been nothing would be a surprise.
As another doctor said earlier - case numbers are flawed - POSITIVITY - is the key measure right now.
So true, but as I often note in the numbers here England is the only nation who ignores it unlike the others who report it daily in their data (as advised by WHO) for exactly that reason. England expect you to work it out and presumably hope you never bother. Which the media duly oblige and never do.
A doctor just said on TV that they do not count an infection if you have had a previous infection. You just get recorded once.
I think that is what they said (I was half listening and not sure how they would even know given the huge numbers) but that is crazy IF true given the difference between variants and the fact you can be infected by both and be just as transmissable to others. Perhaps she meant only one test is recorded not multiple ones before you test positive. Though that was not what she appeared to say.
But given the mess some of our data recording and reporting has been nothing would be a surprise.
As another doctor said earlier - case numbers are flawed - POSITIVITY - is the key measure right now.
So true, but as I often note in the numbers here England is the only nation who ignores it unlike the others who report it daily in their data (as advised by WHO) for exactly that reason. England expect you to work it out and presumably hope you never bother. Which the media duly oblige and never do.
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grunge
Well-Known Member
Interesting - thanks all.
A doctor just said on TV that they do not count an infection if you have had a previous infection. You just get recorded once.
I think that is what they said (I was half listening) but that is crazy IF true given the difference between variants and the fact you can be infected by both and be just as transmissable to others.
Its certainly what the dashboard states in the fine print, I think it was a shortcut taken as when it was developed reinfection was very rare then and they needed to filter out those who were having multiple PCR's in a short time period. I read some patients in hospital were getting 1 per day for example which would have skewed figures upwards.
they need to address this shortcoming on the dashboard asap with Omicron, maybe add a couple of months timer to the re registering a case.