COVID Data Thread

WALES DATA

2 deaths - was 5 last week

1921 cases - was 1784 last week

14.0% positivity - was 13.3% last week
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

Always the big catch up day from lack of Sunday registrations. But today sees a big fall. Coming - of course - from the much lower cases two weeks or so ago - whereas numbers have gone back up a bit since and we are yet to see that impact in these numbers


142 with 21 North West

Was 188 with 51 North West last week

And 217 with 28 North West the week before (though that week included around 20 that was missing data from an IT crash on the day before)


By Region:

East 13, London 22, Midlands 28, NE & Yorkshire 40, North West 21, South East 7, South West 11

6 in Dudley and 5 each in Barnsley, Bradford & Chelsea & Westminster - the most

NORTH WEST BOROUGHS:

5 in East Lancashire, 3 each in Blackpool & Tameside, 2 each in Bolton, East Cheshire, Salford & Stockport AND 1 each in Pennine Acute (Oldham & Rochdale) and Southport


By Age:

0 - 19 (1), 40 - 59 (14), 60 - 79 (68) & 80 PLUS (59)
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

It is already pretty clear that the weekly total of deaths WILL be well down on the last week and probably on the week before.

Here are the numbers for the five day totals of the first five days of each week and the weekly total of the 7 days then


24 - 30 OCT 87 - 91 - 86 - 122 - 95 - (80 - 87) WEEKLY TOTAL WAS 648

31 - 06 NOV 122 - 96 - 101 - 86 - 89 - (77 - 98) WEEKLY TOTAL WAS 669

07 - 13 NOV 96 - 99 - 74 - 89 - 83 (?? - ??) WEEKLY TOTAL ?? BUT SO FAR 441 PLUS THE TWO DAYS

THOSE TWO DAYS ARE CURRENTLY ON 50 AFTER 4 DAYS AND 53 AFTER THREE DAYS - SO CURRENT TOTAL IS 544

IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WILL RISE BY MORE THAN ANOTHER 30 OR SO OVER NEXT 2 DAYS SO THE TOTAL IS VERY LIKELY TO BE BELOW BOTH THE LAST TWO WEEKS
 
ZOE APP NUMBERS

Unfortunately after a very good day yeserday when most places fell and predicted cases and ongoing cases did too and North West was down into seventh place it has gone a bit pear shaped today.

The predicted cases after slowing down over past few days have now gone UP for the first time in around 10 days

UP from 64, 297 yesterday to 64, 810.


Not a surprise given the real cases ately but disappointing evidence we are reversing the numbers that had looked hopeful here now as well as the daily Gov UK data.

We also failed to fall below one million ongoing cases which was expected - though this will keep falling as the number lags by a week or so reversal of daily cases.

It did fall from 1,017,465 yesterday to 1.002,687 today.

It will almost certainly fall below a million tomorrow but the fall is slowing and in a week or so I fear this number will start rising back towards the million again too UNLESS the predicted cases number is just a blip and starts to fall from 64K again.

Regionally - too -Zoe shows North West bearing most of this rise.

UP from the short stay in the lower watch zone and rising into fifth place after going UP quite a lot TO 901/1184 - which is in one leap above ALL of the falls across the last four days.

Thisis easily the biggest increase of all twelve UK regions today on Zoe.

So a big reversal for the region being forecast here. We will seeif tonights real numbers match this and Zoe has been pretty good on that score sadly.

The four regions above the North West are all UP too (in order North East, Wales, Northern Ireland and East) BUT all of these are only up a little bit compared to the big jump in the North West today.

Indeed Yorkshire (which was above North West) fell by even more than the NW rose today and is now FOUR places below it AND in the middle watch zone that Nrth West briefly was.

South East, South West, West Midlands & Scotland remain in that middle watch zone - all up or down a tiny bit or in Scotland's case totally flat.

London remains entirely on its own in the lowest watch zone but also edged up a tiny bit today.

The gloomiest day on Zoe and for the Norh West in some time unfortunately.
 
ZOE APP DATA GREATER MANCHESTER

However, the good news is that it does not really appear to be Greater Manchester driving the rise today.

It would seem to be rises in West Lancashire, Preston and East Lancashire that must be as many of the other areas are falling.

Wyre is going back up too and Wirral is still into the 30Ks and the highest in the region.

But Cheshire East (on 16,429) and West (12,101) have both fallen daily for 14 days now from up near 30K.

So not there either


HERE ARE THE 10 GM BOROUGHS TODAY FROM WORST NUMBERS TO BEST:-


BURY 26,865 - but falling 2K a day for 4 days now - borders East Lancashire

BOLTON 24,659 - still rising - up 1600 today and from 16,907 six days ago - possibly the biggest issue and likely because of the problems in East Lancashire which it also borders

MANCHESTER 24,079 - a fall of 600 - after ten days of quite steady rises from 15K

WIGAN 22,781 - UP 1100 but has flattened off lately - borders areas of Lancashire in trouble too

ROCHDALE 19,474 - UP 1200 and been rising from 14K over past week - another bordering East Lacashire

TRAFFORD 16,805 - UP just 220 and fallen over the week from mid 23K

TAMESIDE 15,541 - DOWN a few hundred but been around this level for 2 weeks

STOCKPORT 10,488 - DOWN by more than the day before for third day and halved in the past 10 days from over 20K - Closest in two monthsto going into the sub 10K lower watch zone.

SALFORD 7903 - pretty flat in the high 7000s for 3 days now but down from 15K a week ago

OLDHAM 5006 - Still easily the best (as it is in the real numbers daily) and been within 400 or so either side of 5000 for about 10 days now.


AS YOU SEE GM NUMBERS ARE ABOVE THE LEVEL THEY WERE IN TOTAL - WITH FOUR BOROUGHS OVER 20K AND ANOTHER LIKELY TOMORROW - BUT NO BOROUGH LOOKS IN SERIOUS TROUBLE AND THESE RISES ARE MATCHED BY SOME GOOD FALLS TOO AND THE HIGHER ONES APPEAR MOSTLY TO BE LEVELLING OFF OR FALLING

SO FAR NOTHING HERE TO SUGGEST THIS IS WHERE A BIG NORTH WEST JUMP UPWARD WOULD BE COMING FROM ON ZOE AND THE BORDERS WITH EAST LANCASHIRE LOOK KEY

UNFORTUNATELY ZOE HAS NEVER TRACKED EAST LANCASHIRE AS IT CANNOT GET ENOUGH PARTICIPANTS THERE AND YET THROUGHOUT THE PANDEMIC THE SOCIAL FACTORS OF THE REGION THAT LIKELY EXPLAIN WHY IT CANNOT HAVE PROBABLY ALSO MADE IT BY FAR THE BIGGEST DRIVER IN THE NORTH WEST

BURNLEY ON 19,785 & BLACKBURN ON 21,011 HAVE THE HIGHESTLEVEL OF POP SCORES IN THE UK AND BOTH WAY OVER EVERYWHERE IN GREATER MANCHESTER

A SHAME ZOE HAVE NEVER BEEN ABLE TO TRACK THE ONE AREA THAT HAS BEEN THE BIGGEST PROBLEM ACROSS THE LAST 20 MONTHS
 
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SCOTLAND DATA

Sadly the same slow rises we are seeing everywhere now continue

17 deaths - was 20 last week - deaths falling everwhere - FOR NOW - they lag cases and will be rising again soon unfortuntely given the current trend everywhere

2771 cases - was 2233 last week - The rises are getting a bit more every day now unfortunately - last 4 days fall of 197, Rise of 169, Rise of 276 and today Rise of 538 - NOT LOOKING A GOOD TRAJECTORY

12.8% positivity - was 12.0% last week

779 patients - UP 8 on yesterday - was 753 last week - SO PATIENTS NOW RISING HERE TOO

57 Ventilated icu - same as yesterday & same as last week
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

And to complete the set

5 deaths - was 7 last week

1698 cases - was 1228 last week - deaths down from recent case falls - for now - but cases going up - as everwhere - so probably not down for long.

10,653 WEEKLY CASES - WAS 10,490 YESTERDAY & 8184 LAST WEEK

34 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 40 YESTERDAY & 36 LAST WEEK - At least better news here

429 patients - UP 17 on yesterday - was 395 last week

26 ventilated - was 28 yesterday & last week

Hospital numbers rising week to week here too.

England looks sure to follow the same pattern we are seeing but with much bigger numbers of course given the far larger population.
 
Healdplace said:
SCOTLAND DATA

Sadly the same slow rises we are seeing everywhere now continue

17 deaths - was 20 last week - deaths falling everwhere - FOR NOW - they lag cases and will be rising again soon unfortuntely given the current trend everywhere

2771 cases - was 2233 last week - The rises are getting a bit more every day now unfortunately - last 4 days fall of 197, Rise of 169, Rise of 276 and today Rise of 538 - NOT LOOKING A GOOD TRAJECTORY

12.8% positivity - was 12.0% last week

779 patients - UP 8 on yesterday - was 753 last week - SO PATIENTS NOW RISING HERE TOO

57 Ventilated icu - same as yesterday & same as last week
Click to expand...
Apparently driven by under 20s though

The FM explains who is fuelling the rise in cases in the last two weeks - from just over 2,500 new cases a day, to approximately 3,000 cases a day.

Much of this increase was in people under 20 whereas cases in the over 60s are falling - by 11%.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
I think the message really needs to be how the vaccine will likely save you from very serious illness and possible death and I think it all gets rather muddy when we start talking about passports and saving others.
For example. A vaccinated 30 year old who then catches covid can transmit that to a vulnerable elderly person, with very high risk of a poor outcome, if that elderly patient is not vaccinated.

It’s a simple, clear message. Get vaccinted and you have a much greater chance of not going into hospital and dying than if you are not vaccinated. That'll do….
Click to expand...

A lot of that makes sense to me.

However, I do like the idea of passports though. Mostly so as to nudge people to get vaccinated. You would hope that the behavioural unit at No10 are evaluating the impact around this messaging in relation to impact on vaccination rates of adults. I also dislike the attitude of "screw everyone else, I am not being injected with microchips or an experimental vaccines just to help people who are close to dying anyway" (kind of long-winded way of saying they are shithouses). Anything that annoys or negatively impacts on those people is worth it in the short term.
 
214 all settings deaths (a lot of out of hospital weekend catch up on Tuesdays)

But down from 262 last week

190 in England (so 48 out of hospital) V 230 last week with 42 out of hospital)

37,243 Cases

Unsurprisingly down 2462 from 39,705 yesterday as Wales was double numbers (Sat & Sun) yesterday

Was 33,117 last week - so UP 4126

ENGLAND ONLY

30,853 DOWN by 587 on yesterday & UP from 27,872 last week by 2981

Could have been worse.
 
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NORTH WEST AND GREATER MANCHESTER SUMMARY

Unfortunately it was in no way a good day in GM today. Up both day to day and week to week in every borough bar one and some by quite a lot.

North West was up too on both but GM was most of those rises sadly.

Worst numbers in the 10 borouighs in some time. Hope for a lot better tomorrow!

NW on 3851 - up on the day by 510.

GM is on 1515 - which is up 407 of that 510 - obviously not good news and way over expectations.

Week to week North West rises by 326 from 3525 and Greater Manchester is up from 1221 by 294 of that 326 - in other words pretty much near all of it

As I said easily the worst day in GM for some time and we can only hope testing is the reason and tomorrow will even that out as day to day returns of test results over multiple days can create these kind of odd daily ups and downs.

It will only be more serious if it turns into a trend. Hence why week to week numbers matter more.

Zoe though seems to be predicting well which boroughs are faring the worst.

Bolton is in real trouble at the moment with a run of bad numbers - up most week to week by 73 onto 167.

Bury also as seen by Zoe not far behind up 67 to 131.

Salford more odd as Zoe has it low but up 51 week to week to 163.

Manchester up 39 week to week to top score on 217.

Even Stockport up 30 to 160. Though it still gained 4 more pop score points off Trafford,

The rest all up less week to week - Tameside by 18, Trafford by 16, Wigan by 12, Oldham by 8, and Rochdale FELL by 18 though was up day to day.

Not much to cheer there.
 
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ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA

There is however much better news here as patients fell unexpectedly a lot today by 241 in fact. To 6623.

North West was down well - the most in any region - and admissions Sunday were also the lowest in the region and well down week to week.

So NW is now sub 1000 patients again.

Last Mon - Tue the fall was just 22 and the week before 25

Full details to follow
 
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INTERESTING GRAPH FROM SOMEONE CALLED ANGUS WALKER ON LINE SHOWING CASES. HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS AND DEATHS ACROSS THE PANDEMIC WITH THE JANUARY PEAK MADE AS 100 AND HOW IT WAS BEFORE AND SINCE. HE HAS SHIFTED THE DATA SO ADMISSIONS ARE TIED ON THE GRAPH TO CASES AS THEY WERE 4 DAYS AFTER THE CASE NUMBER AND DEATHS AS THEY WERE 11 DAYS AFTER THE CASES TO TRY TO CREATE A GRAPH THAT TIME MATCHES THE THREE EVENTS IN REAL TIME GIVEN EXPECTED DELAYS FROM CASE TO HOSPITALISATION TO DEATH


SHOWS VERY WELL HOW THE VACCINES HAVE UNCOUPLED THE TIGHT LINK BETWEEN CASES AND HOSPITAL AND DEATH SINCE THE SPRING. WILL LEAVE IT UP TO SOMEONE MORE KNOWLEDGEABLE TO SEE ANYTHING MORE IN HERE.


Covid CvAvD Nov 2021.png
 
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Bluehammer here were the cases and Pop Scores today in your two Kent areas so you can track them daily and compare them with GM to follow in later posts.

MEDWAY 156 cases today (UP from 155 yesterday) - Total cases 42,181 - Pop Score 15,111 (Up 56 today) & Weekly Pop Score 368 (UP 29)

DARTFORD 62 cases today (UP from 58 yesterday) - Total cases 18,402 - Pop Score 16,135 (Up 54 today) & Weekly Pop Score 371 (DOWN 24)
 
ENGLAND REGIONS BY CASE NUMBERS TODAY


CASES - Up/Down on day V Last Week


SOUTH EAST 5603 - DOWN 663 V 4599 - Up 1004 wk to wk - BIG DROP only 1700 above the NW now

SOUTH WEST 3863 - UP 67 V 3387 - UP 476 week to weekand also still JUST above NW

NORTH WEST 3851 - UP 510 V 3525 - UP 326 wk to wk - NW as Zoe predicted earlier had a bad day versus the rest abd only just avoided being second and rose ahead of East and London easily. Still well behind the South East but they were well down as NW was well up today.Not a good trajectory if it continues.

EAST 3617 - DOWN 266 V 3180 - another southern region well down but UP 437 wk to wk

LONDON 3194 - DOWN 149 V 2845 - UP 349 wk to wk.

WEST MIDLANDS 3088 - DOWN 182 V 3114 - DOWN 26 week to week

YORKSHIRE 3000- UP 227 V 2432 - UP 568 wk to wk

EAST MIDLANDS 2859 - DOWN 112 V 2748 - UP 111 Wk to wk

NORTH EAST 1131 - DOWN 254 V 1566 - DOWN 435 week to week


AS YOU CAN SEE ZOE HAD IT SPOT ON AGAIN EARLIER TODAY. EVERYONE DID INDEED DO BETTER THAN NORTH WEST TODAY AND IT WAS INDEED AS THEY PREDICTED UP BY THE MOST
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL SUMMARY




ADMISSIONS (SUNDAY) (always 48 hour behind on admissions - the rest of data is all from today)

678 V 739 last week


SO ADMISSIONS DOWN WEEK TO WEEK AND ALSO A LOT FROM 860 THE SUNDAY BEFORE


London 105 v 90 (UP 15), Midlands 124 v 136 (DOWN 12), NE & Yorkshire 125 V 124 (UP 1) & North West 187 v 102 (DOWN 15)



NORTH WEST CLEARLY HAD THE BEST SUNDAY



PATIENTS YESTERDAY V TODAY

6864 / 6623 Today.

Down by 241



Last Week the numbers were

7075 / 7053

Down by 22



A week to week FALL of 430 today. It was a week to week fall of 211 yesterday & of 203 the day before.


SO TODAY WAS A PROMISING DAY BY SURPRISE WITH A BIGGER DROP IN PATIENTS THAN LAST WEEK


Last Tuesday patients were DOWN week to week by 457 (7510 TO 7053) - week before UP 627 (6883 - 7510)

Still unexpectedly going in the right direction here. For now.



REGIONALLY London DOWN 6 at 1088, Midlands DOWN 21 at 1231 , NE & Yorks DOWN 47 to 1291 & NW DOWN 56 to 968.

Week to week London (UP 36), Midlands (DOWN 59), NE & Yorkshire (DOWN 82), East (DOWN 96), South East (DOWN 36) , South West (DOWN 85) and North West (DOWN 106) over the last 7 days.

So NW had the biggest daily fall - dropped below 1000 again AND well below the numbers in London again after rising above AND had the biggest weekly fall too.



VENTILATORS YESTERDAY V TODAY


821 / 796 Today Down 25


Last week the numbers were 869 / 865 DOWN 4


So week to week today ventilators are DOWN by 69,

Last week they were UP week to week by 6



REGIONALLY London has 175 (DOWN 9), Midlands 154 (DOWN 3), NE & Yorkshire 127 (UP 2)
& North West 116 (DOWN 2)

NORTH WEST UP WEEK TO WEEK BY 7 (108 - 115)

Others week to week : East DOWN 17 (99-82), London DOWN 10 (185 -175). Midlands DOWN 21 (175 - 154), NE & Yorkshire DOWN 11 (138 - 127), South East DOWN 18 (97 - 79) & South West FLAT on 63.
 
UK HOSPITAL NUMBERS


PATIENTS:-


ENGLAND 6623, N IRELAND 429, SCOTLAND 779, WALES 621 UK TOTAL 8452 (DOWN 102)

Only England was NOT up today though Wales has not updated since Friday


VENTILATORS:-


ENGLAND 796, N IRELAND 26, SCOTLAND 57 WALES 62 UK TOTAL 941 ( DOWN 46)

Only England & Northern Ireland fell


Both numbers fall today and now under 8500 in UK hospitals and ventilators have fallen back below 950
 
GREATER MANCHESTER BOROUGHS WEEKLY CASES


Oldham 604, Bury 707, Rochdale 852, Salford 867, Tameside 912, Stockport 934, Trafford 938, Bolton 981, Wigan 1332, Manchester 1647



Oldham still best of the pack and Manchester now 713 ahead of Stockport and 315 ahead of Wigan. Stockport still just ahead of Trafford and now much nearer the lowest than the highest. Wigan and Manchester left over 1000 but both well over as yet. Their turn to start to drop next hopefully.
 
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GREATER MANCHESTER TODAY CASES V POP SCORES

BOROUGH - CURRENT WEEKLY POP SCORE - Up/Down on day (LOWEST SCORE BEST) V POP SCORE Last Week & IF RISING THEN BY // CASES (c) TODAY v CASES LAST WEEK // POP SCORE RISE TODAY - UP TO - TOTAL POP SCORE OVER THE WHOLE PANDEMIC (LOWEST IS STILL BEST)


OLDHAM 255 (UP 5) V 263 // 93 c v 85 c // POP SCORE 40 - UP TO 18,255 - - Highest in GM over all of the pandemic

MANCHESTER 297 (UP 7) V 264 RISING 33 // 217 c v 178 c // POP SCORE 39 * - UP TO 17,927 * Lowest Pop Score today

STOCKPORT 318 (UP 10) V 335// 160 c v 130 c // POP SCORE 54 - UP TO 16,611 - Lowest Pop Score in GM over all of the pandemic

SALFORD 330 (UP 19) V 265 RISING 65 // 163 c v 112 c // POP SCORE 62 - UP TO 18,072

BOLTON 340 (UP 25) V 291 RISING 49 // 167 c v 94 c // POP SCORE 58 - UP TO 17,273

BURY 371 (UP 34) V 348 RISING 23 // 131 c v 66 c // POP SCORE 69 * - UP TO 17,503 * Highest in GM Today

ROCHDALE 381 (DOWN 8) V 379 RISING 2 // 123 c v 141 c // POP SCORE 55 - UP TO 18,187

TRAFFORD 395 (UP 7) V 348 RISING 47 // 138 c v 122 c // POP SCORE 58- UP TO 17,045

TAMESIDE 401 (UP 7) V 366 RISING 35 // 140 c v 122 c // POP SCORE 61 - UP TO 17,722

WIGAN 403 (UP 4) V 329 RISING 74 // 183 c v 171 c // POP SCORE 56 - UP TO 17, 813



ONLY STOCKPORT AND OLDHAM STILL FALLING AND NOT RISING WEEK TO WEEK AS THE NUMBERS REVERSE BUT BOTH COULD BE TOMORROW IF THEY GET SIMILAR NUMBERS TO TODAY

The rest of GM is now going upwards week to week - never a good thing.

Both Wigan and Tameside edged back up into the 400s Pop Scores.

Bolton is higher than it has been in weeks and now in fifth place after so long since at the top - being caught up in the East Lancashire triangle of high cases with Burnley and Blackburn and neghbour Bury.

Stockport was up too but stays third as so were everyone bar Rochdale.

Trafford only lost another 4 Pop Score points to Stockport today given the latters rise taking the seemingly unassailable lead for the lowest Pop Score in GM across the entire pandemic to 'just' 434.

Oldham had the best day again in the numbers (though Manchester just pipped it for lowest daily Pop Score) and it took 15 more points off Rochdale who are still struggling though had a better day today than of late. So Oldham's lead for the highest Pop score across the pandemic care of its very low numbers is still dwindling and now just 68. At current rates Rochdale will take over as highest in GM across the pandemc later this week.

Salford became the third borough to join the 18K club today. Manchester will follow probably on Thursday and Wigan is probably just a couple of days after that at current rates.

Trafford did enter the 17 K club today leaving Stockport alone in the 16K club. But likely only for another six or seven days. Less if numbers start to really shoot up as they might the way things are balanced.
 
WALES DATA

17 deaths - was 18 last week

2417 cases - was 2171 last week

13.3% postitivy - was 14.0% last week
 
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