COVID Data Thread

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA

The numbers for yesterday appear to have been lost by Gov UK due to a data crash.

I hope the new railways announced for the North are not involving the same tech as we might find HS 3 ends up as a branch line from Warrington to Lymm before they realise they got the sums wrong.

I have worked out there were roughly about 120 in England hospitals yesterday - down from around 139.But that is only a guesstimate based on the total we know was 144 and on past days hospital v out of hospital around 20 - 24 out of hospital is likely to be about right.

That would be down from the 139 in England hospital last Thursday. So another week to week fall.

Unfortunately it is all but impossible to know where those 120 (ish) would be allocated to the day. At least for a week to ten days until that 'finalised' data appears. Though around 100 yesterday were likely from the previous 5 days.

So we can only guess on the weekly total as the last 7 day total would have completed yesterday.

It was over those 7 days at five day totals:

96 - 99 - 74 - 89 - 83 - 66 AND ???

??? (13 NOV) stood at 72 on four days but we hae no idea how many were added to it from that 120 (ish)

12 were added to the equivalent day the previous week. But that was up on 86 so it is likely to have been a bit below 12. (Most of the 100 added will be on the first 3 days - Today for instance with similar numbers to yesterday 78 are added to those first 3 days and just 8 to day 5.

So I will split the difference and add 10 to make 82 on that final day as a guessed total as it is unlikely to be much more. And may even have been less.

Not sure if I will ever be able to unravel the Gov UK data crash unless they do themselves one day (just who do we pay to supply this 'world beating tech' as it is always going wrong?)

But on this (biggish) caveat the 5 day total of that week is 589 - That is down from 669 the week before AND 648 the week before that - but UP from 538 three weeks ago.

Data over the next week ref England hospitals will be impacted by this missing data before we get back to it not mattering.

But just think - if the NHS data tech cannot keep track of how many died yesterday with Covid then let us hope they do not use the same IT to do anything really important.

And ask yourself where the 120 or whatever it was they gave to Gov UK for hospital deaths came from if they are unable to give the same number they gave them to issue to the public in their own PhE records. You have to wonder if they just made it up more or less like I just did.

I am sure our crack team of journalists have spotted this and are trying to find out......maybe.
 
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ENGLAND HOSPITAL NUMBERS TODAY

Back to reality - I hope!

113 with 17 North West

UP from 90 with 16 North West last week

DOWN from 162 with 25 North West two weeks ago.


BY REGION:

East 16, London 17, Midlands 20, NE & Yorkshire 24, North West 17, South East 9, South West 10


BY TRUST:

10 in Leeds the most


NW Trusts:- 4 Manchester, 3 Mid Cheshire. 2 in East Lancashire & Tameside AND 1 each in Blackpool, East Cheshire, Nth Lancashire, Southport, Stockport and Wirral
 
NORTH WEST AND GREATER MANCHESTER SUMMARY

Both GM and North West actually did OK today - certainly better than some England regions.

In fact despite the fall on yesterday many of the southern regions were above North West today. Exacty as Zoe predicted earlier.

Numbers in NW are edging up as cases are well up in the country but by nothing like they might.

The numbers in South East today almost entirely have driven the England rise. They had over 8500 on their own today - double anywhere else in England.

NW on 4274 - was up by just 35 today. But GM FELL day to day by 106 to 1449.

That IS up by 177 week to week from 1272 BUT week to week North West is UP by 576 from 3708 and that Greater Manchester rise is at worst on a par with expectatrions and probably a bit below.

So GM did pretty well even versus the NW rise which was not as bad as in the south where most regions have caught up and the South East is the epicentre right now it seems.

HOWEVER

As the numbers are up pretty much everybody in GM rose. In fact the surprise and saving grace was Wigan who FELL by 51 week to week on just 162.

Every other borough is up week to week - around 10, 20 or 30. Even the two sub 100 scorers - Bury on 98 is up 17 and Oldham - the best - on 86 - is still up 2.

Manchester top scores on 251 up 61 week to week (the most) but Bolton (again seen by Zoe earlier) was up 42 on 161 which was probably the worst of the day.

Zoe had these two top of the GM table today and very close and the real numbers bear that out almost exactly.

Aside from that everyone was up by similar numbers and nobody had a terrible day or a really good day - just one consistent with the modest expected rise week to week fairly evenly shared out.
 
Another OK day in England hospital data.

Full details later but patients downfor fourth day running though by the lowest - just 26 to 6310.

However, North West had the best of that and is down 30 today on just 909 - more than the entire country fell today. Week to week it is down 125 too. The biggest weekly drop.

Ventilators also fell for the fifth straight day by 10 onto 769.

And again North West had the best day - down 7 to go sub 100 again on 98.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL SUMMARY




ADMISSIONS (WEDNESDAY) (always 48 hour behind on admissions - the rest of data is all from today)

727 V 821 last week


SO ADMISSIONS DOWN WEEK TO WEEK AND FROM 807 THE WEDNESDAY BEFORE



London 96 v 99 (DOWN 3), Midlands 133 v 157 (DOWN 24), NE & Yorkshire 111 V 148 (DOWN 327) & North West 110 v 124 (DOWN 14)





PATIENTS YESTERDAY V TODAY

6336 / 6310 Today.

Down by 26



Last Week the numbers were

6861 / 6777

Down by 84



A week to week FALL of 467 today. It was a week to week fall of 525 yesterday & 549 the day before.


SO ANOTHER FALL BUT SLOWING DOWN


Last Friday patients were DOWN week to week by 295 (7072 TO 6777) - week before by 41 (7113 - 7072)

Still unexpectedly going in the right direction here. For now.



REGIONALLY London DOWN 7 at 1030, Midlands UP 10 at 1198 , NE & Yorks DOWN 3 to 1199 & NW DOWN 30 to 909.

Week to week London (DOWN 26), Midlands (DOWN 66), NE & Yorkshire (DOWN 96), East (DOWN 79), South East (DOWN 68) , South West (DOWN 7) and North West (DOWN 125) over the last 7 days.

So NW had the biggest weekly fall of any region


VENTILATORS YESTERDAY V TODAY


779/ 769 Today Down 10


Last week the numbers were 842 / 838 DOWN 4


Week to week today ventilators are DOWN by 69,

Last week they were DOWN week to week by 22



REGIONALLY London has 172 (DOWN 1), Midlands 148 (LEVEL), NE & Yorkshire 123 (DOWN 3)
& North West 98 (DOWN 7)



NORTH WEST NOW DOWN WEEK TO WEEK BY 13 (111 - 98)


Others week to week : East DOWN 13 (94-81), London DOWN 9 (181 -172). Midlands DOWN 30 (178 - 148), NE & Yorkshire LEVEL (ON 123), South East DOWN 7 (89 - 82) & South West UP 3 on 65.
 
Bluehammer here were the cases and Pop Scores today in your two Kent areas so you can track them daily and compare them with GM to follow in later posts.

MEDWAY 189 cases today (UP from 170 yesterday) - Total cases 42,696 - Pop Score 15,295 (Up 67 today) & Weekly Pop Score 399 (UP 13)

DARTFORD 74 cases today (UP from 62 yesterday) - Total cases 18,569 - Pop Score 16,281 (Up 67 today) & Weekly Pop Score 381 (UP 2)
 
ENGLAND REGIONS BY CASE NUMBERS TODAY

CASES - Up/Down on day V Last Week

YOU WILL NOT HAVE TO LOOK FAR TO SEE WHERE THE BIG CHUNK OF TODAYS ENGLAND RISE CAME FROM - A GIGANTIC ONE



SOUTH EAST 8567 - UP 1053 V 6261 - UP 2306 wk to wk - another huge weekly rise here

LONDON 4358 - DOWN 566 V 3590 - UP 768 wk to wk.

SOUTH WEST 4321 - DOWN 189 V 4039 - UP 282 week to week

NORTH WEST 4274 - UP 35 V 3708 - UP 566 wk to wk - Much closer than it was yesterday

EAST 4195 - UP 50 V 3655 - UP 540 wk to wk - just 163 separate these 4 regions

WEST MIDLANDS 3613 - DOWN 842 V 3100 - UP 513 week to week

EAST MIDLANDS 3085 - DOWN 703 V 2876 - UP 209 Wk to wk

YORKSHIRE 2915- DOWN 451 V 2750 - UP 165 wk to wk

NORTH EAST 1506 - DOWN 48 V 1540 - DOWN 34 week to week


A MUCH TIGHTER GROUPING AND NW ONLY ONE OF THREE RISING TODAY - THOUGH BY THE LEAST - AND IT IS CLEAR WHO HAD THE WORST NUMBERS BY A MILE TODAY - ONE OF THE BIGGEST GAPS BETWEEN TOP AND THE REST EVER. IF NOT THE BIGGEST EVER.
 
GREATER MANCHESTER BOROUGHS WEEKLY CASES


Oldham 639, Bury 765, Trafford 883, Tameside 905, Salford 913, Stockport 927, Rochdale 942, Bolton 1000, Wigan 1305, Manchester 1665



Oldham still best of the pack and well over 100 clear of them now. Manchester now 360 ahead of Wigan who fell today. Stockport now ahead of Rochdale .But the top 7 just 303 or so between them and 59 between 3rd and 7th so much have the numbers closed together. Bolton though crashed the 1000 barrier JUST - something Zoe has been flagging up for days but has now become an unexpected reality.
 
GREATER MANCHESTER TODAY CASES V POP SCORES

BOROUGH - CURRENT WEEKLY POP SCORE - Up/Down on day (LOWEST SCORE BEST) V POP SCORE Last Week & IF RISING THEN BY // CASES (c) TODAY v CASES LAST WEEK // POP SCORE RISE TODAY - UP TO - TOTAL POP SCORE OVER THE WHOLE PANDEMIC (LOWEST IS STILL BEST)


OLDHAM 269 (UP 1) V 263 RISING 6 // 86 c v 84 c // POP SCORE 36 * - UP TO 18,383 - Highest in GM over all of the pandemic * But lowest GM Pop Score today

MANCHESTER 299 (UP 10) V 276 RISING 23 // 251 c v 190 c // POP SCORE 45 - UP TO 18,063

STOCKPORT 315 (UP 8) V 323 // 143 c v 122 c // POP SCORE 49 - UP TO 16,753 - Lowest Pop Score in GM over all of the pandemic

BOLTON 347 (UP 15) V 309 RISING 38 // 161 c v 119 c // POP SCORE 56 - UP TO 17,436

SALFORD 348 (UP 8) V 284 RISING 64 // 127 c v 108 c // POP SCORE 49 - UP TO 18,236

TRAFFORD 372 (UP 10) V 381 // 146 c v 124 c // POP SCORE 62 * - UP TO 17,214 * Joint highest GM Pop Score today

WIGAN 395 (DOWN 15) V 375 RISING 20 // 220 c v 213 c // POP SCORE 49 - UP TO 17,988

TAMESIDE 399 (UP 14) V 372 RISING 27 // 141 c v 110 c // POP SCORE 62 * - UP TO 17,898 * Joint highest GM Pop Score today

BURY 401 (UP 9) V 330 RISING 71 // 98 c v 81 c // POP SCORE 52 - UP TO 17,688

ROCHDALE 421 (UP 6) V 366 RISING 57 // 134 c v 120 c // POP SCORE 60 - UP TO 18,385


TRAFFORD AND STOCKPORT THE ONLY ONES FALLING WEEK TO WEEK - JUST IN BOTH CASES. THE REST STILL GOING UP WITH BURY NOW BY THE MOST

Bury indeed crashed back into the 400 club but Rochdale clear up top whilst Wigan had a suprisingly good day and was the only faller.

Bolton is now nearer top than bottom. Zoe has got that unexpected rise correct over the past week.

Trafford lost another 13 Pop Score points to Stockport today so the seemingly unassailable lead for the lowest Pop Score in GM across the entire pandemic keeps going one wa and rose to 461

BUT THE BIG STORY WAS AT THE OTHER END

Oldham took another 24 off Rochdale in the race for the highest Pop score across the pandemic. That was just enough to hand the highest Pop Score over the past 21 month pandemic to Rochdale by 2. It has bee coming for a while but these two adjacent boroughs swap places.

Wigan's unexpectedly good day was enough to stop it becoming the fifth borough to enter the 18K club but will not be so lucky tomorrow.

Tameside is next in line and could be there by the end of the weekend on present rises.

Stockport is all alone in the 16K club until next week sometime at least.
 
UK HOSPITAL NUMBERS

No increases in patients and several falls in all 4 nations


PATIENTS:-


ENGLAND 6310, N IRELAND 410, SCOTLAND 785, WALES 547 UK TOTAL 8052 (DOWN 58)

Every nation down today



VENTILATORS:-


ENGLAND 769, N IRELAND 21, SCOTLAND 64 WALES 59 UK TOTAL 913 ( DOWN 11)

Only Scotland rose all three other nations fell


Both numbers fall today again
 
SCOTLAND DATA

11 deaths - was 13 last week

2756 cases - was 3052 last week

9.3% positivity - was 10.1% last week

767 patients - DOWN 18 on yesterday - was 780 last week

61 ventilated icu - down 3 on yesterday - was 59 last week

BETTER NUMBERS HERE TODAY
 
NORTHERN IRELAND

6 deaths - was 3 last week

1846 cases- was 1806 last week

ALL WE GET HERE ON WEEKENDS


NO WALES DATA EITHER TODAY - FRIDAY NUMBERS TOMORROW, SAT & SUN ON MONDAY TOGETHER
 
ZOE APP NUMBERS

TODAY


Predicted cases

UP from 68,265 TO 69,659 - Another big daily rise of 1394 - a liitle less than yesterdays rise of 1665 and 1541 the day before. Clearly going back upwards now but let us hope this is a slowdown not a one off.

Ongoing symptomatic cases ARE still falling but slowing rapidly towards a stall and a rise is very close now I fear. Inevitable a week or so into daily cases rising.

It did fall from 980,537 TO 976,109 - a fall of just 4428 after a fall of 5850 yesterday and 7307 the day before.

The size of the daily fall is decreasing each day and looks set to reverse into a rise in the next couple of days due to the lag in this number.

Unfortunately after good days for the North West despite these rises not today. North West goes UP by more than any other region. And rises from 9th to 8th AND yet again stays in the lower watch zone for just 24 hours as it did a week or so ago.

NORTH WEST UP BIG FROM 840 / 1123 TO 890 / 1186

THERE ARE NOW ONLY SCOTLAND AND LONDON IN THE MIDDLE WATCH ZONE AGAIN!

The 10 regions in the upper watch zone are:- in order

Wales - TOP - but DOWN (1192/1640 TO 1168 / 1619), Northern Ireland behind but DOWN even more from 783 /2037 TO 720 /1954, North East third also DOWN from 971/1504 TO 922 / 1454 , East Midlands in fourth and UP almost as much as the NW today from 940/1281 TO 981 / 1331, South East rising again up into fifth from 965 / 1141 TO 997 / 1178, East stays 6th and UP too but only a touch from 954 / 1194 to 960 / 1203, Yorkshire shoot up out of the lower watch zone even above North West into 7th on 882 / 1215 - NORTH WEST SLOT IN HERE NOW ON 890 / 1186 and in 9th is South West up a little FROM 902 /1138 to 915 / 1149. With West MIdlands up out of the lower zone too in 10th - though barely moving FROM 859 / 1179 TO 861 / 1184 - VERY CLOSE TO NORTH WEST

Just two now left in the middle watch zone:



Scotland in 11th UP as big as NW was FROM 715/1022 TO 757 / 1076

And still the best in UK is

London (lowest in UK) UP quite a bit too FROM 737 / 942 TO 778 / 990
 
ZOE APP NORTH WEST & GM NUMBERS

TODAY


Wirral is falling fast happily - down another 4 K 23,927 after weeks in the 30Ks.

Wyre has flattened in the 19Ks. Neighbouring Fylde though is still low and DOWN by 1 (!) from 7234 to 7233.

St Helens which has been in trouble for weeks has been dropping fast and is now in the 8Ks Warrington too over the past week falls again into 11K.

Much the same in Cheshire - some big drops.

Cheshire West has fallen so much today it is now in the lower watch zone! But flattish on 7505 - a quarter of where it was 3 weeks ago.

Cheshire East in past 3 weeks has continually fallen too from 29K and today down on 12, 185 FROM 12,947 so the Cheshire falls havbe flattened off today.




Here is the Greater Manchester 'Zoe league table':

Note THERE IS A NEW LEADER - as sadly some boroughs are starting to go back up.


TOP TO BOTTOM


1: STOCKPORT 7279 - down only 300 today but enough as you will see to go from worst to best in GM. Lowest here in many weeks bit given what happened to the two below after getting down here I would ot bet on this lasting!

2: SALFORD 9935 - UP over 2000 and only just stayed in the lower watch zone. Well below where it was recently but did not stay top for long.


AND THESE ARE THE ONLY TWO NOW IN THE LOWER ZONE IN GM AS....


3: OLDHAM - bit of a jump up by 2300 in one day to 11,157

4: TAMESIDE 14,078 - down 1000

5: TRAFFORD 18,362 - up 800

6: BURY 18,369 - down 900 & going the right way just 7 behind Trafford.

7: WIGAN 19,624 - also down again today after big drops lately - today by 500

8: ROCHDALE 24.286 - DOWN 300 - finally reversing its bad run that saw it take over highesyt Pop Score in Greateer Manchester from the whoke pandemuic from Oldham yesterday

9: BOLTON 26,539 - DOWN 500 after some rough numbers lately a good sign - maybe

10: MANCHESTER 28,556 - UP 700 and top of the tree


~
BUT THESE NUMBERS COULD BE WORSE GIVEN THE NORTH WEST RISE TODAY



Most of the above is tracking well the real case data from Gov UK each day
 
150 all settings deaths - was 157 last week

England only 133 - was 141 last week


40, 941 cases - down 3301 on yesterday

UP 2590 on last week's 38, 351

England only 36, 339 - down justb 667 on yesterday (no Wales data today unlike yesterday remember is in effect why the numbers fall)

UP 2846 on last week's 33, 493
 
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NORTH WEST AND GREATER MANCHESTER SUMMARY


NOT that good a day in GM though better for the North West.

Zoe seems to be predicting things very well.

Numbers in NW are pretty flat and just a bit up on last week but GM again have more rising than not so had an excess today.

South East is down in the mid 7000s today but still over 3000 more than the NW.

North West had 4112 cases - that is down by 162 on yesterday.

HOWEVER, Greater Manchester is UP by 289 on the day to 1738. The highest for weeks.

This is not possible to describe as anything but a pretty bad day in the ten boroughs.

That IS up by 240 week to week from 1498 BUT week to week North West is UP by 377 from 3735 and that Greater Manchester rise is clearly above par (which is around 100 fewer thsn GM had).

So GM clearly underperformed today but it has been worse.



Bolton was the only borough to fall on the day but at 148 still quite high and UP 38 week to week.

Seven other boroughs are up week to week too some by a lot.

Manchester top scores on 310 up 16 week to week, Bolton despite being the one down on the day is up week to week (the more crucial number) by 38.

Bury up 12 on 101 - which was the lowest score today. Bury are doing better now as Zoe predicted.

Oldham - though - are going the other way and again Zoe saw this coming. Up on 140 - a rise of 44 week to week.

Rochdale had a better day - up just 15 but higher on 166.

Salford though outdid them both UP a massive 91 on the day and 97 week to week on 218 - its highest in some time. Zoe again saw its rapid rise today earlier sadly.

Trafford is also up 34 week to week on 164 and Wigan rather less up 15 from last week to 188

ONly two boroughs were actually DOWN week to week

Tameside stuck on 141 cases which is down 15 from 156 last week.

And going just one better still is neighbour Stockport - today scored best in GM by Zoe - and indeed down week to week by 16 on 162.

So a mixed bag right now. But a lot of boroughs heading up. Hopefully this will change soon.
 
Bluehammer here were the cases and Pop Scores today in your two Kent areas so you can track them daily and compare them with GM to follow in later posts.

MEDWAY 183 cases today (DOWN from 189 yesterday) - Total cases 42,879 - Pop Score 15,361 (Up 66 today) & Weekly Pop Score 407 (UP 8)

DARTFORD 37 cases today (DOWN from 74 yesterday) - Total cases 18,606 - Pop Score 16,314 (Up 33 today) & Weekly Pop Score 388 (UP 7)
 
ENGLAND REGIONS BY CASE NUMBERS TODAY

CASES - Up/Down on day V Last Week



SOUTH EAST 7278 - DOWN 1289 V 5844 - UP 1434 wk to wk - another big weekly rise but half what it was

EAST 4289 - UP 94 V 3902 - UP 387 wk to wk - just 177 separate these next 4 regions NOW VERY CLOSE

LONDON 4231 - DOWN 127 V 4081 - UP 150 wk to wk.

SOUTH WEST 4200 - DOWN 121 V 4035 - UP 165 week to week

NORTH WEST 4112 - DOWN 162 V 3735 - UP 377 wk to wk - Down much the same as the two above but UP weekly more due to GM mostly I suspect

WEST MIDLANDS 3499 - DOWN 114 V 3392 - UP 107 week to week

YORKSHIRE 3082 UP 167 V 3005 - UP 77 wk to wk

EAST MIDLANDS 2926 - DOWN 159 V 3107 - DOWN 181 Wk to wk

NORTH EAST 1552 - UP 46 V 1481 - UP 71 week to week


A MUCH TIGHTER GROUPING AN ONLY EAST MIDLANDS NOT RISING WEEK TO WEEK TODAY AND IT IS CLEAR SOUTH EAST HAD THE WORST NUMBERS BY A MILE AGAIN TODAY - 3000 CLEAR OF THE REST. BUT THE GAP IS NARROWING AND THE OTHERS ARE VERY MUCH OF A MUCHNESS NOW.
 
GREATER MANCHESTER BOROUGHS WEEKLY CASES


Oldham 683, Bury 777, Tameside 890, Stockport 911, Trafford 917, Rochdale 957, Salford 1010, Bolton 1038, Wigan 1320, Manchester 1681



Oldham still best of the pack but up today as were most. Manchester now 361 ahead of Wigan. Stockport now in fourth after so long way over 1000.But the top 6 just 274 between them. Bolton though crashed the 1000 barrier yesterday and Salford joined them in doing so today - something Zoe has been flagging up for days.
 
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