COVID Data Thread

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

146 deaths - with 14 in the North West

Last week was 142 deaths with 21 North West & week before 188 deaths with 51 North West


By Region:-

East 20, London 18, Midlands 25, NE & Yorkshire 38, North West 14. South East 21, South West 10


Most by Trust:- 9 in MId Yorkshire & 8 in Birmingham


North West Trusts:-

4 in Stockport, 3 each in Bolton & Salford, 2 each in Morecambe & East Cheshire


By Age:-

40 - 59 (17), 60 - 79 (58), 80 PLUS (71)
 
ZOE APP NUMBERS

TODAY

SADLY THE RISE ON ZOE IS QUITE CLEAR NOW


Predicted cases

UP from 73.427 to 75,597 - Another big daily rise of 2170 after ries of 1879 and 1891 in last two days. Clearly going back upwards fast again.

That is a rise from 64,810 (UP 10,787) in the week.



AND

Ongoing symptomatic cases ARE rising now too after slowing towards a stall and now also escalating daily.

UP on 994,682 FROM 990,149 - a RISE of 4532 a fter a rise of 1592 yesterday after a FALL of 590 the day before.

NOT A GOOD TRACK


Week to week the fall is 8545 well down from 31, 477 - but this also looks like becoming a rise as early as tomorrow



NW DID NOT HAVE A GOOD DAY TODAY EITHER - UP A BIT - THOUGH MOST WERE UP

NW ROSE A PLACE TO 9th.

NORTH WEST UP FROM 878 / 1178 TO 918 / 1226


The 10 regions in the upper watch zone are:- in order

1: Northern Ireland UP BIG FROM 716 / 1985 TO 868 / 2218

2: Wales UP from 1205 / 1675 TO 1223 / 1699

3: East Midlands UP BIG FROM 1053 / 1423 TO 1108 / 1486

4: East UP to 1076 / 1340 FROM 1051 / 1310)

5: West MIdlands is up 2 more places as it rises UP FROM 981 / 1331 TO 1018 / 1373

6: South East stays 6th UP FROM 1063 / 1253 TO 1090 / 1283

7: Yorkshire - also UP a place rising FROM 966 / 1322 TO 1000 / 1361

8: South West UP from 975 / 1221 TO 985 / 1231

9: North West up a place via what happened below and itself going UP FROM 878 / 1178 TO 918 / 1226

10: North East relegates NW with a huge FALL - biggest today - taking it FROM 906 / 1446 TO 815 / 1328


AND the two left in the middle watch zone still are:


London in 11th and rising much like NW FROM 838 / 1061 TO 874 / 1099 - and sure to rise into the upper watch zone if it does this for anothee day or two.


And the best in UK is

Scotland (lowest in UK) but like nearly all today UP FROM 724 / 1039 TO 747 / 1068
 
ZOE APP NORTH WEST & GM NUMBERS

TODAY


Wirral is falling fast happily - down another 2000 to 17,427 after weeks in the 30Ks.

Wyre falls again also 2000 into the 14Ks.

St Helens which has been in trouble for weeks has been dropping fast and is now in the mid 7Ks Warrington too over the past week falls again below 10K on 8488.

Though in Cheshire

Cheshire West is up again by 700 on 9804.

Cheshire East has risen too by over 1000 FROM 11,865 to 12, 920




Here is the Greater Manchester 'Zoe league table':

Note still one borough miles ahead.


TOP TO BOTTOM


1: STOCKPORT 6462 - down 155 today and flattened off but lowest here in a very long time after falling for 14 days now.

NOW THE ONLY ONE IN THE LOWER WATCH ZONE BY QUITE SOME MARGIN YET IS ZOE BEHIND THE GOV UK DATA OR AHEAD OF IT AS THE LAST TWO DAYS THERE HAD STOCKPORT RISING STEEPLY. GUESS WE WILL FIND OUT THIS EVENING.


2: TAMESIDE 13,169 - DOWN 1000 but still more than double Stockport

3: WIGAN 15,970 - DOWN 800 here and IS doing the same on the real numbers after being very high.

4: SALFORD 16, 646 - UP 1800 and climbing fast as the real numbers have supported too.

5: BURY 17,672 - DOWN 1100.

6: OLDHAM 17,976- UP another 2500 in one day - more than yesterday's rise - like Salford leaping up from where Stockport is now and they were a few days ago - not encouraging for Stockport in coming days.

7: TRAFFORD 21,162 - UP 450 and been flattish around here for a couple of weeks

8: BOLTON 24,117- DOWN 400 after some rough numbers lately and starting to fall in real data a bit too

9: ROCHDALE 24,847 - UP but only by 78 after 400 yesterdat - becoming flat after big rises

10: MANCHESTER 28,306 - DOWN - only by 400 but the second fall and by more than yesterday so again fklattening off hopefully


NOTHING TOO SCARY IN THE GM NUMBERS - IF ZOE IS RIGHT GM WILL DO BETTER THAN NORTH WEST

BUT WE KNOW HOW ZOE PREDICTIONS CAN BE - UNPREDICTABLE!
 
TODAYS NORTHERN IRELAND NUMBERS PER 5 YEAR AGE GROUP TESTING POSITIVE IN THE PAST 7 DAYS OF CASES - 11.5K OF THEM.

IT SHOWS CLEARLY THE REDUCING NUMBERS OVER 70 AND THE TWO AGE GROUPS - CHILDREN AND THEIR PARENTS AND CLOSE FAMILY IN EFFECT - WHO ARE MASSIVELY DRIVING THIS WAVE AND HOW IT IS NOT EASILY GETTING THROUGH TO THE MORE VULNERABLE MINIMISING BOTH HOSPITAL NUMBERS AND DEATH

TWICE AS MANY UNDER 4 CATCHING IT THAN ANY AGE GROUP IN THE MOSTLY TRIPLE VACCINATED OLDER AGES STANDS OUT VERY CLEARLY TOO.

THE DECISION TO OFFER VACCINES TO ALL CHILDREN WILL EVEN REDUCE THAT AND AS NOTED BY ROUBAIX ON THE OTHER THREAD LOOKS AN IMMINENT SOUND DECISION


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NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

4 deaths - was 5 last week

1476 cases - was 1698 last week

11,502 WEEKLY CASES - WAS 11,930 YESTERDAY & 10,655 LAST WEEK

30 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - DOWN 5 ON YESTERDAY - WAS 34 LAST WEEK - KEY REASON FOR THE OLDER AGE RANGE NUMBERS TUMBLING IN THE CHART ABOVE

390 Patients - up 12 on yesterday - was 429 last week

25 ventilated - down 1 on yesterday - was 26 last week
 
SCOTLAND DATA

17deaths - was 17 last week

2527 cases - was 2771 last week

11.6% positivity - was 12,8% last week

743 patients - down 7 on yesterday - was 779 last week

60 ventilated icu - was 59 yesterday & 57 last week


SOME HOPEFUL HINTS HERE ESPECIALLY PATIENTS FALLING AGAIN
 
165 all settings deaths - was 214 last Tuesday

ENGLAND ONLY 140 - was 190 last Tuesday.

That 140 is BELOW the 146 reported from the hospitals alone. So I assume a lot were double counted - as there were quite a few backdated today and it might be lined with the missing numbers that have neveer been updated last Thursday as this would be the fifth day from then and after this will not really factor/



42,484 cases - DOWN 2433 on yesterday and UP 5241 on 37,243 last week

ENGLAND ONLY 36,550 - UP 72 on yesterday's 36,478 and UP 5697 on last week
 
ZOE V GOV UK - WE HAVE THE ANSWER

ZOE certainly seems not to be calling Stockport right. Unlike them having it fall for two weeks and miles better than everyone it had another below par day.

Not as bad as the past two but well up week to week not down as Zoe has it by a mile. Though only up wk to wk by 24 today - lowest of the past three rises. And indeed it took a lot of Pop Score points back off Trafford who had the worst day today. Up 47 on last week. Manchester was up by 46 week to week too.

Everyone else today was down week to week so that mitigated the damage to a rise of just 144 on the day and week to week one of 24.

However, the North West had a good day (when Zoe claimed it was well up) and was DOWN 102 on the day on 3839 and DOWN week to week by 12 from 3851!

So pretty small numbers and the vagaries of day to day testing means they are of no real impact.

Perhaos Zoe will vindicate itself yet.

But once again NW did better than the southern regions - East, South West & London were all several hundred ahead of NW and South East was over 3400 more! This is where the BIG case numbers are appearing - not in the NW or GM.

If every region was performing like the NW (pretty flat) there would have been no notable rises in case numbers week to week at the moment.
 
Bluehammer here were the cases and Pop Scores today in your two Kent areas so you can track them daily and compare them with GM to follow in later posts.

MEDWAY 210 cases today (UP from 202 yesterday) - Total cases 43,496 - Pop Score 15,582 (Up 75 today) & Weekly Pop Score 435 (UP 3)

DARTFORD 68 cases today (UP from 43 yesterday) - Total cases 18,799 - Pop Score 16,483 (Up 60 today) & Weekly Pop Score 354 (DOWN 2)
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL SUMMARY




ADMISSIONS (SUNDAY) (always 48 hour behind on admissions - the rest of data is all from today)

648 V 678 last week


SO ADMISSIONS DOWN WEEK TO WEEK AND FROM 739 THE SUNDAY BEFORE



London 86 v 105 (DOWN 19), Midlands 111 v 124 (DOWN 13), NE & Yorkshire 127 V 125 (UP 2) & North West 83 v 87 (DOWN 4)





PATIENTS YESTERDAY V TODAY

6424 / 6257 Today.

Down by 167



Last Week the numbers were

6864 / 6623

Down by 241



A week to week FALL of 366 today. It was a week to week fall of 440 yesterday & 385 the day before.


Last Tuesday patients were DOWN week to week by 430 (7053 TO 6623) - week before by 457 (7510 - 7053)

Still falling but the drop is slowing week to week



REGIONALLY London DOWN 33 at 1034, Midlands DOWN 23 at 1194 , NE & Yorks DOWN 44 to 1162 & NW DOWN 14 to 891.

Week to week London (DOWN 54), Midlands (DOWN 37), NE & Yorkshire (DOWN 129), East (DOWN 77), South East (DOWN 44) , South West (UP 52) and North West (DOWN 77) over the last 7 days.

So only South West not falling


VENTILATORS YESTERDAY V TODAY


785/ 780 Today Down 5


Last week the numbers were 821 / 796 DOWN 25


Week to week today ventilators are DOWN by 16

Last week they were DOWN week to week by 69



REGIONALLY London has 180 (LEVEL), Midlands 147 (LEVEL), NE & Yorkshire 125 (DOWN 1)
& North West 93 (DOWN 1)



NORTH WEST NOW DOWN WEEK TO WEEK BY 23 (116 - 93)


Others week to week : East UP 3 (82-85), London UP 5 (175 -180). Midlands DOWN 7 (154 - 147), NE & Yorkshire DOWN 2 (127 - 125), South East UP 9 (79 - 88) & South West DOWN 1 (63 - 62).
 
UK HOSPITAL NUMBERS TODAY


BOTH NUMBERS DOWN AND UK PATIENTS NOW UNDER 8000



PATIENTS:-


ENGLAND 6257, N IRELAND 390, SCOTLAND 743, WALES 524 UK TOTAL 7914 (DOWN 174)

Every nation EXCEPT Northern Ireland down



VENTILATORS:-


ENGLAND 780, N IRELAND 25, SCOTLAND, 60 WALES 58 UK TOTAL 923 ( DOWN 4)


England and N Ireland fell but and Scotland and Wales rose
 
ENGLAND REGIONS BY CASE NUMBERS TODAY

CASES - Up/Down on day V Last Week



SOUTH EAST 7264 - UP 388 V 5603 UP 1661 wk to wk - way over every other region still

EAST 4634 - UP 280 V 3617 - UP 1017 wk to wk

LONDON 4261 - DOWN 86 V 3194 - UP 1067 wk to wk.

SOUTH WEST 4153 - DOWN 218 V 3863 - UP 290 wk to wk


THE SOUTHERN REGIONS ARE STILL THE MAIN REASON ENGLAND IS UP AS THE 4000 RISE OVER THE WEEK REVEALS!


NORTH WEST 3839 - DOWN 102 V 3851 - DOWN 12 wk to wk

WEST MIDLANDS 3807 - UP 80 V 3088 - UP 719 week to week

EAST MIDLANDS 3541 - UP 12 V 2859 - UP 682 Wk to wk


THESE THREE REGIONS VERY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER AS INDEED THEY ARE ON ZOE


YORKSHIRE 2777 - DOWN 357 V 3001 - DOWN 224 wk to wk

NORTH EAST 2140 - UP 505 V 1131 - - UP 1009 week to week - HUGE RISE FOR THE NORTH EAST ON ITS TERMS TODAY


EVERYONE UP WEEK TO WEEK APART FROM NORTH WEST AND YORKSHIRE - WHO CLEARLY HAD THE BEST DAYS TODAY - YORKSHIRE SLIGHTLY THE BETTER OF THE TWO
 
GREATER MANCHESTER BOROUGHS WEEKLY CASES


Oldham 680, Bury 751, Tameside 880, Trafford 965, Rochdale 978, Bolton 1034, Stockport 1057, Salford 1106, Wigan 1295, Manchester 1765


Most fell today Now FIVE over 1000 - most yet - with Rochdale and / or Trafford another bad day from it becoming six or seven.

Oldham still best. Manchester now a whopping 470 ahead of Wigan after the city rose the most today. Stockport was up quite a bit again too today defying Zoe's predictions of record low scores 3 days running and well up into the 1000 cases again and has climbed above an improving Bolton.
 
GREATER MANCHESTER TODAY CASES V POP SCORES

BOROUGH - CURRENT WEEKLY POP SCORE - Up/Down on day (LOWEST SCORE BEST) V POP SCORE Last Week & IF RISING THEN BY // CASES (c) TODAY v CASES LAST WEEK // POP SCORE RISE TODAY - UP TO - TOTAL POP SCORE OVER THE WHOLE PANDEMIC (LOWEST IS STILL BEST)


OLDHAM 286 (DOWN 4) V 255 RISING 31 // 86 c v 93 c // POP SCORE 36 * - UP TO 18,541 -* Lowest GM Pop Score today

MANCHESTER 317 (UP 8) V 297 RISING 20 // 263 c v 217 c // POP SCORE 47 - UP TO 18,244

STOCKPORT 359 (UP 8) V 318 RISING 41 // 184 c v 160 c // POP SCORE 62 - UP TO 16,970 - Lowest Pop Score in GM over all of the pandemic

BOLTON 359 (DOWN 7) V 340 RISING 19 // 147 c v 167 c // POP SCORE 51 - UP TO 17,632

TAMESIDE 388 (DOWN 8) V 401 DOWN 13 // 120 c v 140 c // POP SCORE 53 - UP TO 18,110

WIGAN 391 (DOWN 4) V 403 DOWN 12 // 171 c v 183 c // POP SCORE 52 - UP TO 18,204 - * Joint highest GM Pop Score today

BURY 394 (DOWN 16) V 371 RISING 23 // 101 c v 131 c // POP SCORE 53 - UP TO 17,897

TRAFFORD 406 (UP 10) V 395 RISING 11 // 185 c v 138 c // POP SCORE 78 * - UP TO 17,451 - * Highest GM Pop Score today

SALFORD 421 (DOWN 1) V 330 RISING 91 // 161 c v 163 c // POP SCORE 61 UP TO 18,493

ROCHDALE 437 (DOWN 1) V 381 RISING 56 // 121 c v 123 c // POP SCORE 54 - UP TO 18,624 * and Highest in GM over all of the pandemic


STOCKPORT HAD ANOTHER POOR DAY AGAIN THOUGH NOT AS BAD AS THE LAST TWO BUT NOT CLOSETO WHERE ZOE HAD IT! WE WILL SEE WHETHER ZOE ARE LOOKING BACK AT WHEN IT WAS FALLING OR IF IT STARTS TO RISE THERE TOO JUST LAGGING.

TRAFFORD DID WORSE TODAY THOUGH AND NOW RISING WEEK TO WEEK LEAVING ONLY TAMESIDEAND WIGAN CURRENTLY ON A WEEK TO WEEK DOWN TRACK

SALFORD BETTER TODAY BUT STILL RISING THE MOST


Trafford actually LOST another 16 Pop Score points to Stockport today so clearly Stockport had the best of today atleast but a bit worrying that thease two high scorers that SEEMED to have scaled the peak and were on the downslope are up there together right now.

But that lowest in GM across the pandemic battle is the clue perhaps? The most potential cases are there as they are the least scorers over the past 20 months.

Either way the seemingly unassailable lead for the lowest Pop Score in GM across the entire pandemic is now 481.

Stockport though ensured it will be in the 17K club tomorrow a day or two earlier than expected owing to the last 3 days of higher trhan usual numbers.

At the other extreme of the Pop Score battle across the whole pandemic Oldham was best in GM again - though 36 a high 'low' score. It took another 18 off Rochdale. Rochdale now leads Greater Manchester by 83.

Bury's better numbers mean it might not make the 18K club until Friday now. By then there will just be Bolton,Stockport and Trafford in the 17K club.

Rochdale is heading to be the first into the 19K club next week.

Stockport is all alone in the 16K club for just another 24 hours now. It will have spent 21 days in there. Trafford managed 18.

At least that is an improvement for both on the 13 days it took each of them to cruise through the 15Ks
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

116 with 29 North West

Was 131 with 24 NW last week & 146 with 13 NW two weeks ago.

Looks to be a good downward track here


By Region:-

East 14, London 10, Midlands 22, NE & Yorkshire 22, North West 29, South East 6, South West 13


Most by Trust:- 10 in South Tyneside & Sunderland


North West Trusts:-

6 in St Helens, 3 each in Blackpool, Manchester, Tameside and Warrington, 2 each in East Lancashire. Pennine & Wirral AND 1 each in Bolton, East Cheshire, Liverpool, Morecambe & Salford


By Age:-

20 - 39 (1), 40 - 59 (10), 60 - 79 (51), 80 PLUS (54)
 
SCOTLAND DATA

And here too

9 deaths - was 13 last week

3080 cases - was 3360 last week

7.8% positivity - was 8.8% last week

708 patients - down 35 on yesterday - was 774 last week

BUT: 66 ventilated icu - UP 6 on yesterday - was 57 last week - rather less good here
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

Bit harder to call here

4 deaths - was 12 last week

1931 cases - was 1848 last week

11,704 WEEKLY CASES - WAS 11,502 YESTERDAY AND 10,889 LAST WEEK

31 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 30 YESTERDAY & 33 LAST WEEK

386 Patients - was 390 yesterday & 427 last week

25 Ventilated - was 25 yesterday & 26 last week
 
ZOE APP NUMBERS

TODAY


Predicted cases

UP from 75,597 TO 76, 728 A smaller rise of 1131 after ones of 2170, 1879 and 1891 in last three days days. Will see if this is a slowdown or just a blip.

That is a rise from 65,059 (UP 11,669 in the week - it was a rise of 10,787 in the week yesterday).



AND

Ongoing symptomatic cases ARE rising too.

UP on 1,004,209 FROM 998,074 - a RISE of 6135 after rises of 5666 & 4904 the days before.

NOT A GOOD TRACK - THOUGH A SLIGHT HINT OF A SLOWING OF THE RISE BUT COULD EASILY JUST BE A BLIP


Week to week the RISE is 10, 685 FROM 993,524



NW UP AGAIN TODAY BUT BY LESS THAN YESTERDAY AND STAYS IN 9th OUT OF 10 IN THE UPPER WATCH ZONE WITH JUST 3 OTHERS BELOW IN THE UK.

NORTH WEST UP FROM 918 / 1226 TO 927/ 1237


The 10 regions in the upper watch zone are:- in order

1: Northern Ireland DOWN FROM 868 / 2218 TO 853 / 2217

2: Wales DOWN from 1223 / 1699 TO 1208 / 1685

3: East Midlands UP FROM 1108 / 1486 TO 1124 / 1506

4: East UP BIG FROM 1076 / 1340 TO 1131 / 1403

5: West MIdlands is UP FROM 1018 / 1373 TO 1044 / 1406

6: South East stays 6th UP FROM 1090 / 1283 TO 1105 / 1299

7: Yorkshire - all but flat FROM 1000 / 1361 TO 1000 / 1362

8: South West UP quite a bit 985 / 1231 TO 1028 / 1281

9: North West UP a tad FROM 918 / 1226 TO 927 / 1237

10: North East is still falling DOWN FROM 815 / 1328 TO 782 / 1283


AND the two left in the middle watch zone still are:


London in 11th and stil edging UP much like NW FROM 874 / 1099 TO 880 / 1107- and sure to rise into the upper watch zone if it does this for anotherfew days.


And the best in UK is

Scotland (lowest in UK) but like nearly all UP today FROM 747 / 1068 TO 773 / 1101
 
ZOE APP NORTH WEST & GM NUMBERS

TODAY


Wirral is falling fast happily - down another 2000 to 15K.

Wyre falls again also 2000 to under 12K.

St Helens which has been in trouble for weeks has been dropping fast and is now in the mid 7Ks Warrington too over the past week falls again on 7671.

Though in Cheshire

Cheshire West is up again slightly on 9993.

Cheshire East has risen too by over 1000 FROM 12, 920 TO 13,957




Here is the Greater Manchester 'Zoe league table':

Note still one borough miles ahead.


TOP TO BOTTOM


1: STOCKPORT 6105 - down 357 today and flattened off but lowest here in a very long time after falling for over two weeks now.

NOW THE ONLY ONE IN THE LOWER WATCH ZONE BY QUITE SOME MARGIN YET THE LAST THREE DAYS THERE HAD STOCKPORT RISING STEEPLY. A BIT ODD.


2: TAMESIDE 11,999 - DOWN over1000 may yet go into the lower watch zone

3: WIGAN 14,402 - DOWN 1500 here and IS doing the same on the real numbers after being very high.

4: BURY 16,734- DOWN 1100 like its neighbour above going the right way now.

5: OLDHAM 18,229- UP but only by 300 today - hopefully flattening.

6: SALFORD 20,269- UP 4000 and climbing worryingly fast here.

7: TRAFFORD 21,411 - UP 250 and been flattish around here for a couple of weeks

8: BOLTON 23,609 DOWN 500 after some rough numbers lately and starting to fall in real data a bit too

9: ROCHDALE 24,932 - UP but only by 85 after 78 yesterday - becoming flat after big rises

10: MANCHESTER 28,391 - UP just 85 too - so there are hints of stability emerging
 
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