COVID Data Thread

149 all settings deaths - down from 201 last week - Good falls in most countries

England only 129 - was 159 last week

43, 676 cases - up 1192 on yesterday & 5413 from 38,263 last week (this was the last day we were sub 40K)

England only

36,511 - DOWN 39 on yesterday - The last 3 days in England have been just 72 apart.

But up 5873 on last week's 30,638
 
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Bluehammer here were the cases and Pop Scores today in your two Kent areas so you can track them daily and compare them with GM to follow in later posts.

MEDWAY 192 cases today (DOWN from 210 yesterday) - Total cases 43,688 - Pop Score 15,651 (Up 69 today) & Weekly Pop Score 447 (UP 12)

DARTFORD 75 cases today (UP from 68 yesterday) - Total cases 18,874 - Pop Score 16,549 (Up 67 today) & Weekly Pop Score 349 (DOWN 5)
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL SUMMARY




ADMISSIONS (MONDAY) (always 48 hour behind on admissions - the rest of data is all from today)

602 V 695 last week


SO ADMISSIONS DOWN WEEK TO WEEK AND FROM 850 THE MONDAY BEFORE



London 73 v 115 (DOWN 42), Midlands 123 v 128 (DOWN 5), NE & Yorkshire 89 V 117 (DOWN 28) & North West 76 v 97 (DOWN 21)





PATIENTS YESTERDAY V TODAY

6257 / 6062 Today.

Down by 195



Last Week the numbers were

6623 / 6412

Down by 211



A week to week FALL of 350 today. It was a week to week fall of 366 yesterday & 440 the day before.


Last Wednesday patients were DOWN week to week by 549 (6961 TO 6412) - week before by 330 (7291 - 6961)

Still falling but the drop is slowing a bit



REGIONALLY London DOWN 22 at 1012, Midlands DOWN 29 at 1165 , NE & Yorks DOWN 59 to 1103 & NW DOWN 15 to 876.

Week to week London (DOWN 45), Midlands (DOWN 36), NE & Yorkshire (DOWN 125), East (DOWN 60), South East (DOWN 22) , South West (UP 24) and North West (DOWN 81) over the last 7 days.

So only South West not falling


VENTILATORS YESTERDAY V TODAY


780 / 783 Today UP 3


Last week the numbers were 796 / 792 DOWN 4


Week to week today ventilators are DOWN by 9 - this fall is slowing

Last week they were DOWN week to week by 54



REGIONALLY London has 173 (DOWN 7), Midlands 153 (UP 6), NE & Yorkshire 123 (DOWN 2)
& North West 96 (UP 3)



NORTH WEST NOW DOWN WEEK TO WEEK BY 16 (112 - 96)


Others week to week : East UP 4 (81-85), London DOWN 3 (178 -173). Midlands UP 3 (150 - 153), NE & Yorkshire DOWN 4 (127 - 123), South East UP 12 (79 - 91) & South West DOWN 3 (65 - 62).
 
UK HOSPITAL NUMBERS TODAY


UK PATIENTS NOW WELL UNDER 8000



PATIENTS:-


ENGLAND 6062, N IRELAND 386 , SCOTLAND 708 , WALES 488 UK TOTAL 7644 (DOWN 270)

Every nation falls today



VENTILATORS:-


ENGLAND 783 , N IRELAND 25, SCOTLAND 66, WALES 54 UK TOTAL 928 ( UP 5)


England and Scotland rise and Wales falls, N Ireland level
 
ENGLAND REGIONS BY CASE NUMBERS TODAY

CASES - Up/Down on day V Last Week



SOUTH EAST 7163 - DOWN 101 V 5016 UP 2147 wk to wk - way over every other region still

SOUTH WEST 4534 - UP 381 V 3875 - UP 659 wk to wk

LONDON 4457 - UP 196 V 2993 - UP 1464 wk to wk.

EAST 4219 - DOWN 415 V 3293 - UP 926 wk to wk





THE SOUTHERN REGIONS ARE STILL THE MAIN REASON ENGLAND IS UP AS THE OVER 5000 RISE WEEK TO WEEK REVEALS - PRETTY MUCH ALL OF TODAYS RISE!


NORTH WEST 4040 - UP 201 V 4400 - DOWN 360 wk to wk

WEST MIDLANDS 3345 - DOWN 462 V 3086 - UP 259 week to week

EAST MIDLANDS 2945 - DOWN 596 V 2698 - UP 247 Wk to wk


YORKSHIRE 2679 - DOWN 98 V 3208 - DOWN 529 wk to wk

NORTH EAST 1720 - DOWN 420 V 1501 - - UP 219 week to week


EVERYONE UP WEEK TO WEEK APART FROM NORTH WEST AND YORKSHIRE AGAIN
 
NORTH WEST AND GREATER MANCHESTER SUMMARY


Zoe again had Stockport far and away the best in GM and falling but - like yesterday though not the worst numbers - it was nowhere near where Zoe is putting it for fourth day running. So not a great advert for Zoe right now as it has risen quite a bit whilst thy are saying the opposite.



NORTH WEST UP DAY TO DAY 201 TO 4040.

Greater Manchester UP just 40 of that ON 1579 - this is well below expectation. Pretty good news for a rise.

Manchester is up 29 on 292 , Oldham up 45 on 131, Rochdale up 49 on 170, Bury up 13 on 114, Tameside up 10 on 130, Wigan up 8 on 179 (second but a big113 behind Manchester) and Salford up 7 on 168

The other three fall day to day - a really very good Trafford drop down a whopping 89 to just 96 - the only sub 100 score. Bolton by 18 on 129. And Stockport by 14 on 170.

Trafford gained another huge chunk back on Stockport whose highish numbers easily put it into the 17 K club.

HOWEVER WEEK TO WEEK IT IS QUITE DIFFERENT:

NORTH WEST IS DOWN 360 FROM 4400. BUT GREATER MANCHESTER IS ACTUALLY UP by 28 FROM 1551.

Obviously not good news and created by several boroughs up week to week still. Though not by as much as was the case last few days. Hence the modest numbers.

UP WEEK TO WEEK are Bury by 3, Salford by 8, Oldham by 18, Tameside by 21, Stockport by 23. Manchester by 24

AS you see the damage not as bad.

DOWN WEEK TO WEEK are Bolton by 4, Rochdale by 12, Wigan by 19 and Trafford best of all by 34.

And Trafford with another very good day actually had the LOWEST Pop Score in GM today (just 40) which clawed back another 18 Pop Score Points from Stockport's 58 cutting the gap to just 463!

Rochdale's 170 cases easily earned it the highest Pop Score today - 76.
 
GREATER MANCHESTER BOROUGHS WEEKLY CASES


Oldham 698, Bury 754, Tameside 901, Trafford 931, Rochdale 966, Bolton 1030, Stockport 1080, Salford 1114, Wigan 1276, Manchester 1789



Oldham still best. Manchester now a whopping 513 ahead of Wigan Stockport was up again too today and well up into the 1000 cases again and above an improving Bolton.
 
GREATER MANCHESTER TODAY CASES V POP SCORES

BOROUGH - CURRENT WEEKLY POP SCORE - Up/Down on day (LOWEST SCORE BEST) V POP SCORE Last Week & IF RISING THEN BY // CASES (c) TODAY v CASES LAST WEEK // POP SCORE RISE TODAY - UP TO - TOTAL POP SCORE OVER THE WHOLE PANDEMIC (LOWEST IS STILL BEST)


OLDHAM 294 (UP 8) V 266 RISING 28 // 131 c v 113 c // POP SCORE 55 - UP TO 18,596 -* Lowest GM Pop Score today

MANCHESTER 322 (UP 5) V 291 RISING 31 // 292 c v 268 c // POP SCORE 53 - UP TO 18,297

BOLTON 357 (DOWN 2) V 336 RISING 21 // 129 c v 133 c // POP SCORE 44 - UP TO 17,676

STOCKPORT 367 (UP 8) V 316 RISING 51 // 170 c v 147 c // POP SCORE 58 - UP TO 17,028 - Lowest Pop Score in GM over all of the pandemic

WIGAN 386 (DOWN 5 ) V 408 DOWN 22 // 179 c v 198 c // POP SCORE 54 - UP TO 18,258 - * Joint highest GM Pop Score today

TRAFFORD 392 (DOWN 14) V 395 RISING 11 // 96 c v 130 c // POP SCORE 40 * - UP TO 17,491 - * Lowest GM Pop Score today

BURY 395 (UP 1) V 377 RISING 18 // 114 c v 111 c // POP SCORE 59 - UP TO 17,956

TAMESIDE 397 (UP 9) V 382 RISING 15 // 130 c v 109 c // POP SCORE 57 - UP TO 18,167

SALFORD 424 (UP 3) V 342 RISING 82 // 168 c v 160 c // POP SCORE 64 UP TO 18,557

ROCHDALE 432 (DOWN 5) V 414 RISING 18 // 170 c v 182 c // POP SCORE 76 - UP TO 18,700 * Highest GM Pop Score today and Highest in GM over all of the pandemic


STOCKPORT HAD ANOTHER POOR DAY AND NO ADVERT FOR ZOE AS IT IS NOTHING LIKE THEY ARE CLAIMING.

TRAFFORD THOUGH SUPPOSEDLY MUCH WORSE ON ZOE HAD AN EXTREMELY GOOD DAY TODAY THOUGH AND NOW FALLING WEEK TO WEEK BY THE MOST


Trafford actually clawed back anothee 18 Pop Score points off Stockport today cutting the gap to 463.

Stockport's bad run accelerated it's entry into the 17K club a day or two earlier than expected.

At the other extreme of the Pop Score battle across the whole pandemic Oldham took another 21 off Rochdale. Rochdale now leads Greater Manchester by 104.

Barring a very good day Bury will likely enter the 18K club tomorrow.

Rochdale is heading to be the first into the 19K club possibly by this weekend.
 
WALES DATA

More hopeful signs here

9 deaths - was 20 last week

2377 cases - was 2576 last week

9.4% positivity - was 9.1% last week

488 patients - was 547 last week

54 ventilated - was 59 last week
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

* TWO BIG CAVEATS TODAY - FIRSTLY LAST WEEK WAS THE DAY WHEN THEY LOST ALL THE DATA AND NEVER RECOVERED IT - THOUGH THE TOTAL DEATHS ARE SUPPOSEDLY ACCURATE VIA OTHER MEANS. SO THE NUMBER USED V LAST THURSDAY IS BASED ON THAT AND IS AS CLOSE AS WE CAN GET TO THE ACTUAL ONE. WE JUST MAINLY LOST THE ALLOCATION TO SPECIFIC DAYS AND REGIONS.

THE OTHER CAVEAT IS THAT MIDLANDS REPORTED ZERO DEATHS TODAY. THERE IS NO NOTE SAYING THERE WAS A PROBLEM HERE BUT THAT IS EXTREMELY UNLIKELY TO BE REAL AND NOT TO INVOLVE ONE. IT IS USUALLY IN THE 20s AT THE MOMENT SO I SUSPECT THAT KIND OF NUMBER IS MISSING TODAY. AND WE WILL CATCH UP TOMORROW PRESUMABLY.

THE REPORTING ON THESE THINGS HAS BECOME RATHER SLOPPY AT THE MOMENT



82 with 15 North West

(though likely nearer 100/105 - though I assume these will just be added to tomorrow's total so this number will still BE the comparative)

STILL LOOKS DOWN THOUGH

WAS 120 (ish last week & 139 with 36 North West the week before & 107 with 12 North West the week before that.

EITHER WAY YOU READ IT A GOOD FALL TODAY FOR A THURSDAY






By Region:-

East 16, London 7, Midlands ZERO (see above - was 22 yesterday), NE & Yorkshire 13, North West 15, South East 18, South West 13


Most by Trust:- 8 in Dartford (sorry to report,Bluehammer)


North West Trusts:-

3 each in Blackpool, Pennine Acute (Oldham/Rochdale) & Tameside, 2 in Morecambe AND 1 each in Bolton, Salford, St Helens & Christies (Manchester).


By Age:-

40 - 59 (11), 60 - 79 (30), 80 PLUS (41)
 
TODAYS GRAPH OF ZOE CASES - AS YOU SEE THE CLIMB UPWARD IS NOW CLEAR AND STEEPER THAN IT WAS. WILL IT FLATTEN OFF AS IT DID IN SEPTEMBER - OR RISE STEEPLY AS YOU CAN SEE IT DID FOR WEEKS BETWEEN ABOUT NOW AND LATE JANUARY THIS TIME LAST YEAR? HOPEFULLY NOT AS WE ARE STARTING THIS TIME TO ESCALATE FROM AROUND THE PEAK WE REACHED AFTER A VERY STEEP CLIMB LAST WINTER. BUT THEN WE HAD NO VACCINES TO ALTER THE PATH - THIS YEAR WE DO.



1637847317450.png
 
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ZOE APP NUMBERS

TODAY

BIG RISES TODAY SADLY

Predicted cases

UP from 76, 728 TO 79,838 Biggest rise yet of 3110 after ones of 1130, 2170, 1879 and 1891 in last few days.

That is a rise from 66,600 (UP 13,238 in the week - it was a rise of 11,669 yesterday & 10,787 the day before).

OBVIOUSLY NOT A GOOD RISING PATH HERE



AND

Ongoing symptomatic cases ARE rising too.

UP on 1,022,321 FROM 1,012,829 - a RISE of 9492 after rises of 9251 & 8762 the days before.

NOT A GOOD TRACK - THOUGH A SLIGHT HINT OF A SLOWING OF THE RISE BUT COULD BE A BLIP


Week to week the RISE is 23,623 FROM 987,062 - it was a rise of 10,685 yesterday



NW FELL TODAY - THE ONLY ONE IN THE UK TO DO SO - AND DROPS INTO 10TH OUT OF 11 NOW IN THE UPPER WATCH ZONE AS LONDON MAKES THE JUMP UP INTO THERE AS LONG EXPECTED AND ONLY SCOTLAND NOW LEFT ALL ALONE IN THE MIDDLE ZONE


NORTH WEST DOWN FROM 927/ 1237 TO 913 / 1224


The 11 regions in the upper watch zone are:- in order

1: Northern Ireland UP FROM 853 / 2217 TO 961 / 2390

2: Wales UP from 1208 / 1685 TO 1249 / 1745

3: East Midlands UP FROM 1124 / T) 1137 / 1526

4: East UP THE FROM 1131 / 1403 TO 1171 / 1453

5: South East UP A PLACE AND BIG TODAY FROM 1105 / 1299 TO 1183 / 1386

6: West MIdlands another big rise UP FROM 1044 / 1406 TO 1095 / 1471

7: Yorkshire - also UP quite a bit FROM 1000 / 1362 TO 1037 / 1411

8: South West another on the UP track quite a bit FROM 1028 / 1281 TO 1062 / 1322

9: North East another big rise - a lot of them today - UP FROM 782 / 1283 TO 836 / 1360

10: North West falls a place and on this day of rises is DOWN FROM 927 / 1237 TO 913 / 1224

AND FINALLY JOINING THE UPPER WATCH AFTER A SERIES OF RISES:-

11: London UP big FROM 880 / 1107 TO 943 / 1181


And the best in UK is now all alone in the middkl watch zone



12: Scotland (lowest in UK) like EVERYONE BAR THE NORTH WEST UP today FROM 773 / 1101 TO 785 / 1121
 
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ZOE APP NORTH WEST & GM NUMBERS

TODAY


Wirral is falling fast happily - down another 2000 to 13K. Was 30 K ten days ago.

Wyre falls again also 2K into the 9Ks now.

St Helens which has been in trouble for weeks has been dropping fast and is up slightly but hovering around 8K - a third of where it was.

In Cheshire

Cheshire West is up again out of the lower watch zone on 10,849.

Cheshire East has risen too by another 1000 UP to 14,942

But the best numbers in the NW border Greater Manchester

High Peak is on just 3731




Here is the Greater Manchester 'Zoe league table':

Note still one borough miles ahead. Despite it having risen on the real numbers for 4 days now, A bit puzzling.


TOP TO BOTTOM


1: STOCKPORT 5857 - down 248 today and flattened off but lowest here in a very long time after falling for over three straight weeks now.

NOW THE ONLY ONE IN THE LOWER WATCH ZONE BY QUITE SOME MARGIN YET THE LAST FOUR DAYS THE GOV UK CASES HAVE HAD STOCKPORT RISING STEEPLY. NOT SURE WHAT IS WRONG HERE.


2: TAMESIDE 11,036 - DOWN 1000 may yet go into the lower watch zone - Tameside and Stockport BOTH border High Peak by the way - the lowest NW borough.

3: WIGAN 13,744 - DOWN 700 here and IS doing the same in the real numbers after being very high.

4: BURY 15,862- DOWN 900 like its neighbour above going the right way now.

5: OLDHAM 17,959- DOWN by 270 today - hopefully flattening.

6: TRAFFORD 21,742 - UP 331 and been flattish around here for a couple of weeks

7: BOLTON 23,670 UP 61 after high numbers eased down and a bit up and down in real data too

8: ROCHDALE 24,251 - DOWN 700 - becoming flat after big rises too

9: SALFORD 24,931- UP 4700 and climbing by over 4000 a day worryingly fast here of late. Risen from top to almost bottom in 10 days or so./

10: MANCHESTER 27,413 - DOWN 1000 so there are hints of stability here too

SEVEN OF THE TEN BOROUGHS FALLING IS GOOD NEWS - INDEED TWO OF THE THREE RISING ARE DOIN SO BARELY AND ONLY SALFORD IS REALLY SHOOT(ING UP A LOT - BUT WILL THE REAL DATA MATCH? IT IS A BIT HIT AND MISS AS STOCKPORT GOV UK V ZOE NUMBERS REVEAL
 
SCOTLAND DATA

After Wales down here too

20 deaths - was 29 last week

2932 cases - was 3235 last week

7.2% positivity - was 7.5% last week

712 patients - UP 4 on yesterday - was 786 last week

61 ventilated icu - DOWN 5 on yesterday - was 63 last week

BUT THERE IS YET ANOTHER IT ISSUE THIS TIME IN GLASGOW AND HIGHLANDS HEALTH AREAS SO THEY HAVE NOT CHANGED TODAY AND EITHER MAY BE UP OR DOWN EFFECTING THESE TWO NUMBERS AS THEY JUST REUSED YESTERDAYS NUMBERS IN THESE TWO LOCATIONS
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

Bit harder to call here

5 deaths - was 6 last week

1549 cases - was 1681 last week

11,514 WEEKLY CASES - WAS 11,704 YESTERDAY AND 11,122 LAST WEEK - VERY FLAT

33 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 31 YESTERDAY & 32 LAST WEEK - THIS IS A LITTLE LESS HOPEFUL

395 Patients - was 386 yesterday & 419 last week

24 Ventilated - was 25 yesterday & 22 last week
 
So week to week

Deaths in all three home nations down and in England hospitals

Cases down in all three home nations - though only collectively by a few hundred (around 10%)

All good news - BUT the hospital numbers in the two nations to report are up on yesterday though down week to week.
 
Sadly the good news does not translate to UK when England added

Deaths 147 - well down from 199 (though with the Midlands caveat in England reported above to factor in)

England 113 - was 144 last week



That is OK however cases well up on 47,240 - up 3564 on yesterday - though just 433 on last Thursday's 46,807

Though still the highest cases total since 22 October.

England only 40,382 - UP 3871 on yesterday AND UP 1067 on last Thursday's 39,315

First time in over a month England cases have topped 40,000
 
Bluehammer here were the cases and Pop Scores today in your two Kent areas so you can track them daily and compare them with GM to follow in later posts.

MEDWAY 247 cases today (UP 55 from 192 yesterday) - Total cases 43,935 - Pop Score 15,739 (Up 88 today) & Weekly Pop Score 456 (UP 9)

DARTFORD 70 cases today (DOWN 5 from 75 yesterday) - Total cases 18,944 - Pop Score 16,610 (Up 61 today) & Weekly Pop Score 347 (DOWN 2)
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL SUMMARY




ADMISSIONS (TUESDAY) (always 48 hour behind on admissions - the rest of data is all from today)

659 V 713 last week


SO ADMISSIONS DOWN WEEK TO WEEK AND FROM 808 THE WEEK BEFORE



London 81 v 92 (DOWN 11), Midlands 142 v 147 (DOWN 5), NE & Yorkshire 90 V 120 (DOWN 30) & North West 99 v 116 (DOWN 17)





PATIENTS YESTERDAY V TODAY

6062 / 6068 Today.

UP by 6 The first rise on a Thursday in a month.


Last Week the numbers were

6412 / 6336

Down by 76



A week to week FALL of 268 today. It was a week to week fall of 350 yesterday & 366 and 440 the days before.

The numbers have been slowly changing direction as you can see.


Last week patients were DOWN week to week by 525 (6861 TO 6336)

Still falling but the drop is less



REGIONALLY London UP 16 at 1028, Midlands UP 16 at 1181 , NE & Yorks UP 5 to 1108 & NW DOWN 23 to 853

Week to week London (DOWN 45), Midlands (DOWN 36), NE & Yorkshire (DOWN 125), East (DOWN 60), South East (DOWN 22) , South West (UP 24) and North West (DOWN 81) over the last 7 days.

So remarkably only the North West of the four large regions fell today and by more than South East and South West the only other two fallers - in their case by less - 10 and 3.


VENTILATORS YESTERDAY V TODAY


783 / 790 Today UP 7


Last week the numbers were 792 / 779 DOWN 13


Week to week today ventilators are UP by 11 - the firt signs of a reversal here just as with patients.

Last week they were DOWN week to week by 63



REGIONALLY London has 170 (DOWN 3), Midlands 160 (UP 7), NE & Yorkshire 128 (UP 5)
& North West 102 (UP 6)



NORTH WEST NOW DOWN WEEK TO WEEK BY 3 (105 - 102)


Others week to week : East UP 6 (81-87), London DOWN 3 (173 -170). Midlands UP 12 (148 - 160), NE & Yorkshire UP 2 (126 - 128), South East UP 4 (81 - 85) & South West DOWN 7 (65 - 58).
 
UK HOSPITAL NUMBERS TODAY


UK PATIENTS NOW WELL UNDER 8000


TINY CHANGES BUT BOTH UPWARD ONES

PATIENTS:-


ENGLAND 6068, N IRELAND 395 , SCOTLAND 712 , WALES 476 UK TOTAL 7651 (UP 7)

Every nation was up today bar Wales



VENTILATORS:-


ENGLAND 790, N IRELAND 24, SCOTLAND 61, WALES 54 UK TOTAL 929 ( UP 1)


Only England up today
 
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