It looks like Gtr Manchester has had the surge and then peaked much quicker than London did. Great news if that is indeed the case.
Hopefully yes.
London though is still much higher than it was in the weeks before it surged. It kind of went 5000 - 15,000, 29,000 - then fell to 20,000 and has stuck around there for a couple of weeks.
NW has peaked a little lower (I think partly as Greater Manchester drove it first, then North Lancashire and most recently Merseyside and Cheshire which has spaced out the initial peaks a little). GM has started to fall it seems but if it behaves like London will stay for another week or two at least at the kind of numbers it is now. So down on the peak but between there and where it was before the rise started just pre Christmas. There are some good signs from London with patients starting to fall. We need to see where that goes over the coming week or two as NW will by the looks of it be fairly close behind
This is all guesswork partly based on the numbers Zoe App has for the GM boroughs and the London boroughs which are likey good guides to current numbers.
GM boroughs are almost all now over 30,000 on Zoe when one above 30,000 at a time was relatively rare in the past. And places like Salford have broken the barriers of 50,000 and 60,000 which nobody in GM ever has on Zoe before. Almost everywhere in the NW is now on Zoe higher than it has ever been. And though the NW is falling it is slowly and only just starting in GM and not clear if it will be slow and flat or a sharper drop to London's.
Plenty of boroughs in London have gone up to levels that Zoe has never seen before. Possibly one even got to 100,000 but Thurrock and Enfield last I looked were near 80,000 still. These are double most of Greater Manchester even now.
We will have to see how far and how fast any fall there goes. And hope it does not translate too much into increased hospitalisations and deaths though some of that is inevitable from the sheer size of the numbers especially now cases have reached older age groups who are the main place from which deaths will emerge.
Care homes are a special concern on this as the N Ireland data and the Scottish figures posted earlier in here show. Large numbers here are very vulnerable and the numbers are getting large sadly. Deaths will probably follow.
London patients may be falling but we need to see a sustained period of that to maybe half or more where they are now to be reasonably sure how the other regions (probably starting with the North West) will follow.
The unknown still is whether it will be a steep drop like the steep rise on the Zoe graph posted here earlier. Or a steep rise followed by a slower, shallower fall,
We will probably know which in the next week or so.
