crypto interest

zerox said:
comparing index funds with cryto is like comparing Stockport with City.

Crypto could drop 90% today, and still be miles in front of index funds over the last 5 years.

God knows what the comparision will be like in 5 years time
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Haha spot on
 
Manchester33 said:
No, I'm not a fan and my reasoning is that crypto is completely speculative. You're investing in the hope that someone else will be willing to invest more than you for the same thing in the future. At best crypto is a commodity like gold, watches, wine, tulips etc. When you're gambling, there's always going to be winners (and losers). You only ever hear about the 0.000001% who made £10m overnight and not the 99% who have made losses or very modest gains.

I do perfectly well investing in index funds. These are real businesses with the smartest minds in the world working towards increasing value or paying dividends. It's very easy to do, it's tax efficient and its much lower risk (although there's always going to be risk involved with investing).
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The mistake you're making is lumping crypto into one basket and analysing it as a whole. To use your own example of index funds and businesses, you wouldn't compare Tesla with Crusty's bouncy castle company... Point being there's various progressive, cutting-edge companies out there and there's various duds too. Just like in crypto.

And by the way some of the smartest minds on this planet work in crypto. Only something like 1000 people know how to programme and build it. Crypto is largely open source which by definition means you need to continually improve on it otherwise it will absolutely die because any tom dick and harry can copy it (of course they need to know how to and that alone requires advanced understanding). Imagine this, if Steve Jobs and Bill Gates started their respective companies what would have happened if they'd made it open source? They firstly wouldn't be as rich and secondly the technology would have accelerated much quicker than it ever did because someone else could have come along, learned their code but have spotted a way to improve it and then launched their own computer. That would have benefitted the marketplace and consumer but not the individual companies. Those launching crypto (with exception of the joke ones) have to stay at the very top of the game otherwise they die. Therefore, for investors it's absolutely a gift and curse because unless you know your shit and follow the market (and by that I mean the technological leaps various companies are making) you can easily lose out. That's why, along with it being unregulated, it's so volatile.
 
bugsyblue said:
The mistake you're making is lumping crypto into one basket and analysing it as a whole. To use your own example of index funds and businesses, you wouldn't compare Tesla with Crusty's bouncy castle company... Point being there's various progressive, cutting-edge companies out there and there's various duds too. Just like in crypto.

And by the way some of the smartest minds on this planet work in crypto. Only something like 1000 people know how to programme and build it. Crypto is largely open source which by definition means you need to continually improve on it otherwise it will absolutely die because any tom dick and harry can copy it (of course they need to know how to and that alone requires advanced understanding). Imagine this, if Steve Jobs and Bill Gates started their respective companies what would have happened if they'd made it open source? They firstly wouldn't be as rich and secondly the technology would have accelerated much quicker than it ever did because someone else could have come along, learned their code but have spotted a way to improve it and then launched their own computer. That would have benefitted the marketplace and consumer but not the individual companies. Those launching crypto (with exception of the joke ones) have to stay at the very top of the game otherwise they die. Therefore, for investors it's absolutely a gift and curse because unless you know your shit and follow the market (and by that I mean the technological leaps various companies are making) you can easily lose out. That's why, along with it being unregulated, it's so volatile.
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Also I would add the caveat that the market doesn't swing based purely on technological advances. Nowadays Bitcoin is very limited technologically but it benefits from being the first of its kind. Equally the market swings because of various: manipulation, speculation etc. So yes, purely from an investing standpoint it's a volatile and potentially dangerous flurry.
 
metalblue said:
People got wealthy eh? And in what currency did they measure that wealth? That’s right, them old fiat dinosaur currencies.

Your whole post sums up what crypto is. It’s a highly volatile (and becoming a highly leveraged) asset. 99% of people don’t give two fucks about the “back story” they just care about being able to make cash - you included if you read your post. That’s fine with me but just call it for what it is. Then there are the TAs who crack me up, spouting about retracement lines and the such like there are logical conclusions you can draw about value.

Will crypto disappear? Not any time soon if at all. Money laundering is a massive problem. Is it overpriced? Fuck yeah, it has zero intrinsic value, it’s a money store that’s all. Would I have brought some 5 years ago if I could see the value today - fuck yeah.

Remember this, for every winner their is a loser or losers. So for every story you read about people making fortunes one or more people have had to pay for that. Everyone thinks they’ll be that winner.
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It makes sense to express gains in fiat. Beyond expressing it in numerical gains vs the initial gain, for example percentage, how else would you measure it? If you bought 5 Bitcoin years ago and held it, you still only have 5 Bitcoin. You need something to measure the performance in, the same way you would if you held gold, oil or shares.

TA’s works, if nothing else, enough people use it that it is a self fulfilling prophecy which influences demand which in turn is reflected in the price.

It seems you acknowledge crypto has value to arrive at your conclusion it’s overpriced. What are you basing it being overpriced on? Is there are price for instance Bitcoin gets to where you think it’s good value aunderpriced?

It’s also estimated the proportion of funds laundered via crypto is now at least half that laundered via fiat.

There is going to be someone else on the other side of the trade but if it’s going up in value you’re going to get way more “winners” than “losers”, the same you would in say Apple shares.

It is risky and I get not everyone either understands it, and/or has the risk appetite, but you said yourself you’d have bought some 5 years ago if you could see the value today. I feel in another 5 years you’ll be saying the same thing.
 
zerox said:
comparing index funds with cryto is like comparing Stockport with City.

Crypto could drop 90% today, and still be miles in front of index funds over the last 5 years.

God knows what the comparision will be like in 5 years time
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Utter nonsense and also demonstrably false.

Bitcoin (the largest Crypto coin on the market) vs the S&P 500 over the past 5 years....

Look at the price charts and say that again.
 
zerox said:
not in crypto there isn't.
Next week El Salvador are making bitcoin legal tender, and giving their population of 6.5m a small amount of bitcoin to start their wallets off. El Salvador is a country where a lot of citizens recieve money from relatives working abroad.

They have been living wsith up to 20% charges from firms such as Western Union and the big banks, stimated at 350 million per year in total.

With bitcoin the cost for each remittance goes to less than a penny.
Plenty of crypto winners there.
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I’m not sure how serious your post is.

You’re conflating me holding GBP versus me trading cable or some other GBP cross. The two are completely different as you ought to well know.

Regarding El Salvador, it’s a bit of a gimmick… only those that have the ability to accept it are obligated to. You won’t walk into a shop and them show you a cup of coffee priced at 0.00001BTC unless they have digital menus linked to the current spot price and algorithms to support it, you know like all coffee shops do. What you’ll find is the odd bureau de change showing we buy/we sell rates, what’s daily vol on BTC? 4%…I’d be quoting you a minimum of $4000 spread BTC/USD guaranteed for the day to allow you to convert it - and that’s a very competitive price - on the street you’ll see it wider me thinks. Any business accepting BTC will have to reprice daily. In any case will the banks in El Salvador actually let you hold BTC nominated accounts? My guess is not so you transfer your BTC worth $1000 to your Aunt in El Salvador… she’ll get $600-800 at best. What was that about it being win win?

I’m sure the El Salvador coke producers are delighted though. They won’t care about taking a 20-30% haircut to launder their ill gotten gains - that’s cheap in the traditional scheme of things. No losers in drugs either eh?
 
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