crypto interest

[everythingchangesbutblue]

I think some people just like saying "crypto"

 

[zerox]

as for your elsavador post, well im an flabbergasted.

Y ou are posting of a subject that you know nothing about.

The Elsalvador government have passed the technical application of the experiment over to square., you know the 120 billion upstart challenger to traditional banks.

Square who have created the biggest ligtning network there is to facillate the transactions, and keep them off the bitcoin blockchain.

I am sure they have all your concerns in hand.

 

[Manchester33]

bitcoin 5 years ago sept 2016= 600 dollars

s&p 5 years ago sept 2016= 2160

today bitcoin 50000 --------UP 83 TIMES
today s&p 4520------ up 2 times


Which of us talking utter nonsence?

The part where you said 'Crypto could drop 90% today, and still be miles in front of index funds over the last 5 years.'

I'm just quoting what you said.

 

[Manchester33]

some more 5 year returns

etherium $13 to 3750 ----UP 288 TIMES
xrp <0.01 to 1.27----- 16,160 times

@Manchester33 still think 2 times on a index fund is ok?

Ethereum lost half it's value in 12 days last year. It's too volatile for any serious invester.

Do you honestly expect similar gains in the next 5 years? Remember that around 1/5th of Crypto Currencies have become 'dead coins' and now cease to exist. Link here

I genuinely hope you and any other City fan on this forum does really well out of crypto. But you can't change the fact that it's essentially just gambling.

 

[zerox]

fair play to you, if thats your view.

Just think you are doing yourself a disservice accepting meagre returns from outdated financial instruments.

 

[Craig]

The part where you said 'Crypto could drop 90% today, and still be miles in front of index funds over the last 5 years.'

I'm just quoting what you said.

So because your argument looks pretty pathetic in general you find one exaggeration in an otherwise spot on post.

On the bright side I suppose you still do better with index than a bank.

 

[metalblue]

It makes sense to express gains in fiat. Beyond expressing it in numerical gains vs the initial gain, for example percentage, how else would you measure it? If you bought 5 Bitcoin years ago and held it, you still only have 5 Bitcoin. You need something to measure the performance in, the same way you would if you held gold, oil or shares.

TA’s works, if nothing else, enough people use it that it is a self fulfilling prophecy which influences demand which in turn is reflected in the price.

It seems you acknowledge crypto has value to arrive at your conclusion it’s overpriced. What are you basing it being overpriced on? Is there are price for instance Bitcoin gets to where you think it’s good value aunderpriced?

It’s also estimated the proportion of funds laundered via crypto is now at least half that laundered via fiat.

There is going to be someone else on the other side of the trade but if it’s going up in value you’re going to get way more “winners” than “losers”, the same you would in say Apple shares.

It is risky and I get not everyone either understands it, and/or has the risk appetite, but you said yourself you’d have bought some 5 years ago if you could see the value today. I feel in another 5 years you’ll be saying the same thing.

Why does it make sense to measure your p&l in the fiat currencies? Unless you see crypto as just another currency I suppose…but then it’s whole raison d’être is to be the only currency.

I spent some time as a TA, I get the self fulfilling prophecy narrative, it’s as old as the “art” of being a TA. When you look at a price chart do you actually know what you are really looking at? It took me a few years to figure this out, I was too busy thinking I could read markets by drawing a few lines here and there!! Haha

Value is an interesting question, you got me thinking about this for the first time. So let me give you my two pennies worth. I see the value of crypto as a concept not so much the execution, the idea of money without borders is fantastic. The problem as I see it is the cost of production, what people would call the gate price. It is expensive to produce a bit coin that they need a high value to make them worth producing (around $10k each but I think the average is nearer $20k). If Bitcoin dropped below $10k for a sustained period they would stop being “mined”, below $20k you’d probably see less “miners” making the average of the remaining “miners” closer to $10k. But that’s not the value of Bitcoin, it doesn’t have a value beyond the problem it solves (cost of transferring and exchanging money) however I see a massive disconnect between this value and the cost to produce. So then a fraction of a coin becomes the value store, in that case you have to go to the smaller denomination of both BTC and say USD, so that gets me to 0.000001BTC being worth 0.01USD or 1BTC = 1 million cents or $10,000, maybe add another what $200? for the costs of transferring money across borders. It’s got some very symmetrical structural problems really hasn’t it? So I’ll be a bit generous and say anything above $11-12k is overvalued to me. However you still have to solve the problem of volatility before bitcoin can realise it’s potential.

Trading is a zero sum game mate. Money doesn’t just magically appear. For every $1 you make one or more people have to provide that $1 to the market. The only people that always win are the trading platforms because they take commission on both sides. The number of people who win or lose won’t be balanced, just the value, but that’s largely irrelevant if you’re on the wrong side of a trade.

If you’re making good money in this stuff then I’m pleased for you. Keep an eye on your profits, always ask yourself would I buy it here if I wasn’t already long - and if the answer is no, sell and buy back when you say yes. May the trading gods be on your side

 

[zerox]

your general outline is pretty good, but you must realise that the difficulty of mining is built into the bitcoin protocol, and self adjusts to take account of the points you raise, whatever the price.

The cost of producing bitcoin is directly related to the cost of the electricity consumed, hence multi billion pound companys are always looking for cheap electricity, and more recently renewable energy(i.e hydro, and gas fron oil rigs), causing them to move operations from one country to another.

 

[grunge]

General Crypto question. got an invite to Pi Network, anyone heard of it and had a try? seems shadey as hell to me when I took a look, basically a crypto forcet where doing a simple action gets you "pi". the simple action is open app and click a button every 24 hours.

app shows adverts and seems to access every bit of data the phone has on you which makes me think this is just Cambridge analytica 2.0.

 

[Wafty Cranker]

Ethereum lost half it's value in 12 days last year. It's too volatile for any serious invester.

Do you honestly expect similar gains in the next 5 years? Remember that around 1/5th of Crypto Currencies have become 'dead coins' and now cease to exist. Link here

I genuinely hope you and any other City fan on this forum does really well out of crypto. But you can't change the fact that it's essentially just gambling.

I don’t expect similar gains but I think there is a very strong chance ETH & BTC continue to outperform the markets for next few years.

I agree there is an element of gambling, but it could be compared to going into a casino and putting your money on black, if it doesn’t come in you lose, but if it does come in you 10x you stake.
Obviously it’s not that straight forward but hopefully you get my point in the risk & upside vs downside.

By some distance my best investments have been in cryptocurrency. For the reasons you mentioned though only a small allocation of my capital is in it. It’s not much fun watching its value free fall before your eyes.