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Dipper Takeover? [Merged]
- Thread starter bluemonkey71
- Start date
blue12
Well-Known Member
I posted on another part of the forum yesterday that a scouse journalist,the one who broke the story in the times said the chinese offer is the only one on the table and if it is turned down liverpool could be in densep shit.
The only thing is what has torres been told for him to commit his future to them without some kind of assurances,think there maybe a takeover but not sure of it being a good one for liverpool fans who lets face it have been lied to before.<br /><br />-- Tue Aug 03, 2010 4:10 pm --<br /><br />Sorry my first sentence at the end should read deep shit.
The only thing is what has torres been told for him to commit his future to them without some kind of assurances,think there maybe a takeover but not sure of it being a good one for liverpool fans who lets face it have been lied to before.<br /><br />-- Tue Aug 03, 2010 4:10 pm --<br /><br />Sorry my first sentence at the end should read deep shit.
bluemonkey71
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 26 Jan 2009
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<a class="postlink" href="http://soccernet.espn.go.com/news/story?id=811527&sec=england&cc=5739" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://soccernet.espn.go.com/news/story ... nd&cc=5739</a>
Confused again... shares must be worth something?
"The debt stands at around £350 million and at the moment the valuation is based on between 80p to £1 in the pound, but no more. In layman's terms the shares are worthless, and therefore there is no offer to the current shareholders."
Confused again... shares must be worth something?
"The debt stands at around £350 million and at the moment the valuation is based on between 80p to £1 in the pound, but no more. In layman's terms the shares are worthless, and therefore there is no offer to the current shareholders."
S04
Well-Known Member
Well, I for one would be a bit less jubilant if I was a LFC fan..Chinese money is not surplus money looking for a home really.
They are looking to earn interest or make a profit most likely.
That said given the way LFC are going getting rid of G&H must be a priority no doubt.
It wouldn´t surprise me if the Chinese are interested in sort of turn LFC around, new stadium, back the manager somewhat with transferfunds but I have never heard about them allowing any kind of extravagant spending anywhere unless it´s a major event like the olympics for example.
I´d guess that Huang got backers willing to finance the planned takeover, but not investors willing to share ownership which would simply mean that Huang replaces G&H..Just new lenders and ownership really.
Probably better ownership though as he might tap into the chinese market for sponsors.
But no threat to Citys financial hegemony as I see it.
They are looking to earn interest or make a profit most likely.
That said given the way LFC are going getting rid of G&H must be a priority no doubt.
It wouldn´t surprise me if the Chinese are interested in sort of turn LFC around, new stadium, back the manager somewhat with transferfunds but I have never heard about them allowing any kind of extravagant spending anywhere unless it´s a major event like the olympics for example.
I´d guess that Huang got backers willing to finance the planned takeover, but not investors willing to share ownership which would simply mean that Huang replaces G&H..Just new lenders and ownership really.
Probably better ownership though as he might tap into the chinese market for sponsors.
But no threat to Citys financial hegemony as I see it.
Kinky by name
Well-Known Member
<a class="postlink" href="http://www.sportingintelligence.com/2010/08/02/liverpool" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.sportingintelligence.com/201 ... /liverpool</a>’s-chinese-suitor-kenny-huang-‘doesn’t-have-the-money-or-route’-to-buy-the-club-himself-020806/?
apologies if already posted - at work and don't have the time to go through every page
apologies if already posted - at work and don't have the time to go through every page
10.Goater_Legend said:Let's cut to the point, who's backing this Kenny and will they be richer than us?.
No
Prestwich_Blue
Well-Known Member
There's a difference between City & Liverpool.
Wardle sold City to Thaksin for just over £20m and I don't believe ADUG paid much more than that for the shares. Having invested £500m, it's entirely possible that they could have a club worth something like that if everything goes to plan.
The rags are valued at about £1bn and Arsenal's current market value is about £650m (probably more if they were actually sold). Liverpool are being valued at £600m by Hicks & Gillett and considering the Emirates and the property portfolio at Arsenal, that looks too high. LFC's turnover this financial year will be about half that of the rags and maybe 60% that of Arsenal. Currently I'd say Liverpool are worth maybe £450m tops. That could be less if they again fail to make top 4.
So you pay £450/500m for the club (assuming H&G will take that) and another £250m for a new stadium. Then £100m for team building. That assumes the debt will be cleared as part of the deal so that's something like £800-850m minimum to buy something worth closer to £500m.
I can't see it.
Wardle sold City to Thaksin for just over £20m and I don't believe ADUG paid much more than that for the shares. Having invested £500m, it's entirely possible that they could have a club worth something like that if everything goes to plan.
The rags are valued at about £1bn and Arsenal's current market value is about £650m (probably more if they were actually sold). Liverpool are being valued at £600m by Hicks & Gillett and considering the Emirates and the property portfolio at Arsenal, that looks too high. LFC's turnover this financial year will be about half that of the rags and maybe 60% that of Arsenal. Currently I'd say Liverpool are worth maybe £450m tops. That could be less if they again fail to make top 4.
So you pay £450/500m for the club (assuming H&G will take that) and another £250m for a new stadium. Then £100m for team building. That assumes the debt will be cleared as part of the deal so that's something like £800-850m minimum to buy something worth closer to £500m.
I can't see it.
S04
Well-Known Member
VOOMER said:10.Goater_Legend said:Let's cut to the point, who's backing this Kenny and will they be richer than us?.
No
No
Kinky by name said:http://www.sportingintelligence.com/2010/08/02/liverpool’s-chinese-suitor-kenny-huang-‘doesn’t-have-the-money-or-route’-to-buy-the-club-himself-020806/?
apologies if already posted - at work and don't have the time to go through every page
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
If this is accurate Kenny is the chinese dell boy, "oh ladies I've got some lovely liverpool shares going half price, but you need to pay today to get delivery,,,,,,,,,whenever!"
bluemonkey71 said:http://soccernet.espn.go.com/news/story?id=811527&sec=england&cc=5739
Confused again... shares must be worth something?
"The debt stands at around £350 million and at the moment the valuation is based on between 80p to £1 in the pound, but no more. In layman's terms the shares are worthless, and therefore there is no offer to the current shareholders."
Not necessarily. A business has a valuation that includes its assets and its liabilities. Where its liabilities exceed its overall value the shares are worth nothing and the debt a discount to its headline amount. Whenever a business goes into administration its shareholders get nothing and its creditors get [INSERT NUMBER LESS THAN 100] pence in the £.
I was looking at this before and concluded that Liverpool out of the Champions League and with severe question marks over its ability to qualify is worth much less than £350m. Realistically Liverpool should be valued (as an enterprise) at around 2-2.5x its turnover. Its turnover for a non-Champions League season will be approximately £100-110m. This is insufficient to make a significant profit (before player trading). The clubs history and global standing (including its ability to generate substantial sponsor revenues) increase the value of the club as does its highly sellable player assets (Reina, Torres, Mascherano, Gerrard and Kuyt in particular) but its low capacity and need for stadium investment counters this. In terms of assets, given it's property is in Liverpool this asset is of low value. I would say that the realistic range is therefore around £200-250m including the debt.
In English I am saying that the club is worth around the value of the RBS debt and, currently, the equity held by H&G is worthless. This could (and would) change if Liverpool surprised us all with a Champions League qualifying season but I really dont believe that is likely and H&G (and the potential buyers) will know this. Apparently Rhone Group bid £110m for 40% in December when they could have qualified for the Champions League. This makes my £200-250m valuation about where they saw it too.
Aside from Champions League qualification and success there is very limited medium term upside here. Even if you manage to build a 60k stadium and fill it (easier said than done in Liverpool in a recession) you still have the burden of repaying the build cost. This has hampered even Arsenal despite massive net trading profits, real estate in one of the best areas of London and 60,000 fans paying the highest average price outside of Chelsea.
In summary, Liverpool have major major problems that wont go away unless UEFA fix it for them to be a regular player in a Super League or Champions League. The clock is ticking on this Club and only an imminent explosion at Chelsea, our place or United can save them. Arsenal are bombproof in the long term given the size of the stadium and its Central London wealthy customer base.