Donald Trump

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Bigga said:
I agree with FogBlue.

Before I read his response, I wanted to ask WHO is the economy good for? The economy, as FogBlue says, was already doing well and Trump hijacked that position.

He has done NOTHING of any note to impact the economy. The Dow? Yes, as I think Wall St is pretty much betting against the people, which is why the markets soared more than at any point.
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That's not the point though - the point is that the economy is doing, basically well. By-in-large voters aren't going to be dissatisfied with the economy; hopeful for a better job - yes - but out-of-work, insisting on change? - no.

A large portion of the electorate is locked in - going to vote Democrat/Republican almost no matter what. And among Republicans - Trump is hugely popular.

Counting on huge Democratic turnout to swing the election?... really, that's a long shot (because Trump is as disgusting now as he was 2 years ago and Democrats lost then).

It's the swing vote that counts - and that vote will prefer status quo over change unless they're personally affected (the economy).
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I'm hopeful that Republicans lose seats in Congress in the midterms - but I don't see loss of Republican control over both houses following 2018 elections. I hope I'm wrong - but history indicates that the status quo is more likely.
 
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CityInWashingtonState said:
What's changed since 2016 though in terms of dislike for Trump?

In 2016, Trump was reviled by Democrats and was a known misogynist/racist/etc. - yet he won the election. That he's even more polarizing/disgusting - well, nothing's much changed.
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Nobody really thought he could win in 2016, they've now been rudely disabused of that notion and won't be as complacent in future.
 
He will get a second term unless the Dems get their shit together and rally round a potential unifying candidate. Fucked if I can identify one at the moment.
 
CityInWashingtonState said:
That's not the point though - the point is that the economy is doing, basically well. By-in-large voters aren't going to be dissatisfied with the economy; hopeful for a better job - yes - but out-of-work, insisting on change? - no.

A large portion of the electorate is locked in - going to vote Democrat/Republican almost no matter what. And among Republicans - Trump is hugely popular.

Counting on huge Democratic turnout to swing the election?... really, that's a long shot (because Trump is as disgusting now as he was 2 years ago and Democrats lost then).

It's the swing vote that counts - and that vote will prefer status quo over change unless they're personally affected (the economy).
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I'm hopeful that Republicans lose seats in Congress in the midterms - but I don't see loss of Republican control over both houses following 2018 elections. I hope I'm wrong - but history indicates that the status quo is more likely.
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Even if the Democrats secure more than 50% of the senate seats, the maximum they can get is 55 as there are only 8 Republican held seats being contested. Even if that happens they will be nowhere near the 67 needed for a two thirds vote to impeach to go through without GOP support so unless Mueller comes up with something so bad that even Republican senators won't turn a blind eye to, it's most likely you're stuck with the Dotard until 2020, albeit with a paralysed government.
 
west didsblue said:
Even if the Democrats secure more than 50% of the senate seats, the maximum they can get is 55 as there are only 8 Republican held seats being contested. Even if that happens they will be nowhere near the 67 needed for a two thirds vote to impeach to go through without GOP support so unless Mueller comes up with something so bad that even Republican senators won't turn a blind eye to, it's most likely you're stuck with the Dotard until 2020, albeit with a paralysed government.
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Correct. Impeachment is off the table. Paralysis is the "best" that can be hoped for if the House switches over. I doubt Republicans will abandon him unless his/their base does.
 
CityInWashingtonState said:
What's changed since 2016 though in terms of dislike for Trump?

In 2016, Trump was reviled by Democrats and was a known misogynist/racist/etc. - yet he won the election. That he's even more polarizing/disgusting - well, nothing's much changed.

To get Trump out of office (and Republicans in general) - it's the economy that's the biggest driver. If you're out of work, you're more than likely to seek change.

If you've got a job, chances are that you're not going to change your vote since last election.
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It's the economy that predominately drives elections.

To effect a big swing, voters who previously voted for Trump will need to change their opinion and vote Democrat instead of Republican. And, as the economy is doing well (even though Trump has almost nothing to do with this) - I honestly don't see any shift in voter opinion (voted for Trump last election - will, by-in-large, do so again).
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Turnout, turnout, turnout, T-U-R-N-O-U-T.

No one's mind needs to be changed. Blue voters need to show up and actually vote.

No one, including Trump (and possibly excepting Bannon) thought he was going to win.

What's changed mate is that he wasn't the President before and now he is.
 
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