Donald Trump

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Damocles said:
His fanatical base are generally pseudo America First Love it or Leave it nationalists. In their eyes he has committed some cardinal sins:

Drumming war drum against Iran after numerous promises of a war free reign

Fanatical support for Israel over and above the interests of the United States (this one has really got to the racists).

Pushing gun control reform

No wall/lack of wall building. The wall was always his flashpoint and if he could get it through then he had a great chance of reelection. Trump and the wall are so synonymous with each other now that its tied to him. I think he knows this which is why he went to pretty extraordinary lengths to get funding, but it's not enough. People need a visual and they wanted a Great Wall of China clone rather than a fence.

Lack of "draining the swamp". His hardcore base seemed to believe that there would be trials and investigations and arrests for all of those corrupt politicians in Washington. This was why they gravitated to QAnon. However it's the same as it ever was, Clinton walks free and there has been no big secret to unveil and take down the elites.

Trump should have won 2020. It would have been so easy for him. All he had to do was nothing. But instead he done something, which is not a good thing all the time. When you do nothing you can say that you're preparing to do something. When you do something however, it allows you to be judged.

Although Trump won a ton of demographics, the fanatical base were insane with their level of energy, promotion and positivity towards him. The edges of this have now cooled off and without that there's not enough going into the hype machine.

He's lost the centrists, though more down to shitty clickbait media and screeching hyperbole than any actual policies, and no election can ever be won without centrists. Don't get me wrong, the Democrats seem to be doing their absolute best to also lose the centrists but because they're in an election to pick a runner, none of their candidates have that toxic discussion around them yet with the exception of Warren and Biden.

Also, many respectable candidates would have beat Trump the first time around but they picked one of the world's most unlikeable people. Remember the "Mother of Dragons" Clinton thing? Or the tweet about her as a kid being President? Or her "I carry hot sauce" type comments? America just dislikes her and with decent reason.

Dont get me wrong, Trump has started to become more of a mainstream Republican than he was after he was elected so he'd pick up a lot of their base but the buzz behind him back in 2016 was special. People voted for Trump for the same reason they voted for Obama, they saw the opportunity for real change in politics. Instead they pretty much got more of the same.

The US doesnt generally like one term Presidents so I wouldn't write him off completely but if Bernie or Harris gets the nod then he's going to be in serious trouble for a reelection.
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I don't think Iran matters, nor Israel especially, to his base. The gun control thing is about 24 hours old. The wall and the swamp maybe, but there are convenient targets for blame there.

The economy is strong, even as he's simply kicked the can down the road fiscally and jawboned the Fed to cut rates in a full employment environment. He's made progress on deregulation. He got tax reform done. North Korea is our "friend", China our enemy (which one stole American jobs)? One would think farmers would be furious losing an export market -- latest poll I saw shows 78% still support him. Consumer confidence split between red and blue is still enormous, but blue confidence has gone up more than red has gone down since the election.

I don't think he's alienated his base much personally; maybe on a few issues, but on the pocketbook issues he's been fine to this point save the tariffs and for now he's still got them convinced the pain is worth it. If anything they've formed a protective shield around him.

I agree he's lost the centrists though, which is why the Democrats need to run a centrist IMO. I think it will be too easy to galvanize his supporters and paint Sanders as a Socialist which could depress blue turnout. I agree I think Harris gives him problems. I think Biden does too, potentially, but that could go either way. Biden needs to stay above the fray and innocuous and safe and I'm not sure he will because he's older, dimmer and prone to the gaffe.

Still hoping for a late charge from Steve Bullock!
 
Trevor Morley's Tache said:
Where do you get this idea of NO PROOF?

The issue with Muller was the BURDEN OF PROOF, not the lack of any any proof. The reason Muller couldn't prove beyond reasonable doubt of collusion with Russia was because of the levels of obstruction from Trump, his lawyers and the White House.
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I don't think even Meuller will agree with this :(
 
1.618034 said:
I'm unsure whether this is good or bad for Trump.

Definitely good for those associated with Epstein, but who don't have elections to win.

It stinks to high heaven though.
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I would say good for Trump ( and no doubt other high profile individuals).

Dead man don't talk, and now there is no case therefore no trial.

Any evidence collected already will now go in the shredder. AG Barr will see to that.
 
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