Donald Trump

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

SCOTUS decide on Colorado ballot case today.

I'm expecting this to fall in line with political leanings. The easy decision for the conservatives is to claim insufficient due process. However that could give them an issue down the line.

If they agree he is not an officer then that's a huge blow to their credibility. That would be a bit of a shock as it would signal the court would go to extreme lengths to help Trump. This is the first opportunity to show their hand. Interesting times ahead.

 

[johnnytapia]

Fingers crossed

Looking like he’ll “win” this according to most commentators

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Looking like he’ll “win” this according to most commentators

Yes but there are levels here. If they say lack of due process then this could come back. It's more a dodge and delay than a decision.

If they make some ruling that guts the amendment then it's a clear tip of the scales to help Trump.

I think most suspect the former. No one expects the Colorado decision to survive. So it will be a Trump victory but how and why will be important.

 

[SWP's back]

The flat Earth article seems to be at odds with the headline.

‘…the spreadsheet data indicate that they are not substantially more likely to agree that the Earth is flat. Indeed, firm belief in a flat Earth was rare, with less than a 2 percent acceptance rate in all age groups.’

Either way, there’s a far too large number of people that aren’t sure the Earth is a ball:

“we used the information in the spreadsheet to calculate acceptance of the round Earth by age groups and found that only about 82.5 percent of millennials (as YouGov called 18–24-year-olds) agreed with “I have always believed the world is round.” That’s still dismayingly low, of course, but it’s not as dismayingly low as 66 percent. And those aged 25–34 turned out to fare a tad worse, with only about 81.8 percent agreeing.”

 

[johnnytapia]

I'm expecting this to fall in line with political leanings. The easy decision for the conservatives is to claim insufficient due process. However that could give them an issue down the line.

If they agree he is not an officer then that's a huge blow to their credibility. That would be a bit of a shock as it would signal the court would go to extreme lengths to help Trump. This is the first opportunity to show their hand. Interesting times ahead.

I think he’ll “win” on the 2/3 Congress rule, namely, congress can overturn a decision that says the person committed insurrection. I think they’ll argue that this hasn’t been applied.

 

[johnnytapia]

Yes but there are levels here. If they say lack of due process then this could come back. It's more a dodge and delay than a decision.

If they make some ruling that guts the amendment then it's a clear tip of the scales to help Trump.

I think most suspect the former. No one expects the Colorado decision to survive. So it will be a Trump victory but how and why will be important.

Where do you see him “losing”? The Mar a Lago case looks strongest.

 

[johnnytapia]

Either way, there’s a far too large number of people that aren’t sure the Earth is a ball:

“we used the information in the spreadsheet to calculate acceptance of the round Earth by age groups and found that only about 82.5 percent of millennials (as YouGov called 18–24-year-olds) agreed with “I have always believed the world is round.” That’s still dismayingly low, of course, but it’s not as dismayingly low as 66 percent. And those aged 25–34 turned out to fare a tad worse, with only about 81.8 percent agreeing.”

There can’t be any argument that the world is spherical surely?
How else can you explain the time it takes for Father Christmas to make all those deliveries on one day?

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Where do you see him “losing”? The Mar a Lago case looks strongest.

I think the first up will be the stormy case. I guess it's 60:40 he losses and then 50:50 he sees any jail time.

After that the DC case might come next and this + Georgia are difficult to prove. I guess 50:50 chance in both but only time for 1 to get done this year. Even if it drags on the prosecution evidence will be very compelling and damaging for Trump.

Agree docs case is strongest. I'd put that at 80:20 on guilty but a friendly judge will help delay and a light sentence.

 

[Citizen of Legoland]

Either way, there’s a far too large number of people that aren’t sure the Earth is a ball:

“we used the information in the spreadsheet to calculate acceptance of the round Earth by age groups and found that only about 82.5 percent of millennials (as YouGov called 18–24-year-olds) agreed with “I have always believed the world is round.” That’s still dismayingly low, of course, but it’s not as dismayingly low as 66 percent. And those aged 25–34 turned out to fare a tad worse, with only about 81.8 percent agreeing.”

The word “round” is giving me concerns here. A circle is round and a plate is a circle so there will be some who might have answered incorrectly, thinking that they determine a flat earth like a plate and hence, round. And of course the earth isn’t round it’s ellipsoid so there’s the smart arse response too.


Or smart ass in America.

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

Either way, there’s a far too large number of people that aren’t sure the Earth is a ball:

“we used the information in the spreadsheet to calculate acceptance of the round Earth by age groups and found that only about 82.5 percent of millennials (as YouGov called 18–24-year-olds) agreed with “I have always believed the world is round.” That’s still dismayingly low, of course, but it’s not as dismayingly low as 66 percent. And those aged 25–34 turned out to fare a tad worse, with only about 81.8 percent agreeing.”

Regardless of whether these stats are reflective or not, I do get a general sense that we have somehow ended up with a society (in the UK and US) in which being factually incorrect is seen as a virtue.

The acceptance of “fuck experts, what do they know?” as a valid life philosophy is really depressing.