I don't disagree with this. It's been true for a while in the U.S.
I just don't agree that there's anyone here who thinks that Biden is a 100% guaranteed lock to win, as you've asserted, is all.
And then I don't know that there's much data to support that the swing voters in those states who helped elect Biden in 2020 will suddenly switch to Trump in 2024, whereas there seems to be a fair amount of evidence (especially in the primary vote) that some GOPers are to hell and done with Trump.
That increases my confidence that Biden will win, but it doesn't make him any kind of lock, especially with a lot of the campaign left to go. Were I a betting man (and I'm not save for wagers or pools with friends, and the occasional poker game), I would consider doing what
@SWP's back has too.