Donald Trump | Found guilty on all 34 counts

BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
And you make my point. It's 50-50-ish either way at this point.

It's not down to what you and I believe and watch in the news.

It's not even down to what the majority of Americans believe.

It's down to a handful of swing states; and voter turnout in those states; and likely to last-minute news just prior to election.
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It’s plainly not, for the reasons @SWP's back comprehensively set out and more. Referring back to 2016 is not a cogent argument. Can Trump win? Certainly, but to say it’s 50-50 ish is both speculative and nebulous. He’s got a one in three chance at best if we’re going to ascribe numbers to it.
 
BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
I think the "who" is obvious. That you're asking, seems to be designed to spark controversy. Who do you think in this thread is over-confident that Biden will win? No one?
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It's "obvious" -- okay, well, not to me -- so I'll ask again -- who here specifically is in the "Biden-can't-possibly-lose-reality-distortion-bubble"?

Which posters? Name them.

It's only controversial if you won't answer. Give those you label this way a chance to agree or disagree with said label.
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
It’s plainly not, for the reasons @SWP's back comprehensively set out and more. Referring back to 2016 is not a cogent argument. Can Trump win? Certainly, but to say it’s 50-50 ish is both speculative and nebulous. He’s got a one in three chance at best if we’re going to ascribe numbers to it.
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1-in-3? Then get in on the betting odds as SWP has done. Moreover, what's your basis for this plucked-out-of-thin-air 1-in-3?

50-50 isn't speculative at all. It's the reflection that no one knows either way. There are the polls; and the betting odds; and then there are recent voting results, albeit not on a national level; and there is the historical accuracy of presidential election polling results over-favoring Democrats; and so on and so on.

It's as clear as fucking mud who will win.

What's clear is that what you or SWP or FogBlue or I believe about Trump has zero bearing on the election outcome - it's down to a few - for whatever unfathomable reason, undecided voters, in a handful of swing states - that will decide the election. And those margins are razor thin, measured in the 1/2 percent or so.

No fucking way that it's clear who will win.
 
BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
I think the "who" is obvious. That you're asking, seems to be designed to spark controversy. Who do you think in this thread is over-confident that Biden will win? No one?
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Many people in the thread are asking because we don’t know who you are talking about.

The only one sparking controversy is you by making a broad statement that you then only support with vague “them” responses.

And overconfident is completely different to what you have been claiming (i.e. that people in this thread, who shall remain nameless for some reason, think it is impossible for Trump to win or for Biden to lose).

Do you not think it odd that every regular participant in the thread is calling you out on this point?
 
SebastianBlue said:
Many people in the thread are asking because we don’t know who you are talking about.

The only one sparking controversy is you by making a broad statement that you then only support with vague “them” responses.
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Read my post starting with "1-in-3?" if you're honestly confused - which I very much doubt.

This thread is almost exclusively pro-Democracy, anti-Trump, indeed, never Trump.

I hate Trump as much or more than any other poster in this thread. But... I recognize that this thread is an echo-chamber, mostly reflecting the desires of the posters, even when at variance with outside opinions.
 
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BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
1-in-3? Then get in on the betting odds as SWP has done. Moreover, what's your basis for this plucked-out-of-thin-air 1-in-3?

50-50 isn't speculative at all. It's the reflection that no one knows either way. There are the polls; and the betting odds; and then there are recent voting results, albeit not on a national level; and there is the historical accuracy of presidential election polling results over-favoring Democrats; and so on and so on.

It's as clear as fucking mud who will win.
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It’s not plucked out of thin air. As I expressly stated, it’s based on what @SWP's back reasoned in his post. If you have such poor comprehension skills it’s little wonder you struggle to evaluate likely outcomes with any apparent care or skill.

Your reasoning appears to be rooted in what happened in 2016, since when, as has been posted many times, a number of factors have materially (some overwhelmingly) changed.

My figure, based in that logic, places Trump’s prospects as less than likely (so concomitantly less than 50%) but realistic and plausible, hence the figure of 33%.

I accept its quite a crude and simple calculation, but is in direct response to yours, which is misconceived and flawed.
 
BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
Read my post starting with "1-in-3?" if you're honestly confused - which I very much doubt.
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Read my edit.

Everyone is calling you out on your point, and for good reason.

So either you are the only one that knows the truth (sounds familiar) or there may be some cause for everyone else questioning your broad statements.
 
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