FlemishDuck
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 23 Oct 2015
- Messages
- 1,782
You want me to speculate in a fashion that is realistic, withought defining what realistic is. When speculation is involved, realism is to each ones impression only, never a fact.
One thing however upon which i have speculated hard since the start of the war, was that the more time would go on the more drone warfare would become prominent, to the point that it would more and more redefine modern war. From my own professional background i am acutely aware how in recent decades the mass production of cheap components that fit such end products have risen. hence i can speak with some knowledge of facts that drone production is notably of a kind where it is not so hard to reach production orders of ... millions!
There is a potential fair amount of paradigm shift that this might cause. When one thinks of a future of drone warfare to the greatest extend it could happen, then one would immagine that the most important metrics to victory are such things like technological advancement and industrial capacity. The paradigm shift is that this takes away from the importance of being superior in terms of manpower for example. Indeed, it must be extremely demoralizing for soldiers to fight nothing but drones, even if you kill it its just a cheap product noone cries, if you loose you die. There is much to say about all the features of this paradigm shift, another part besides is just that drones are very cheap which shows in the production volumes they are made, few weapons of war are indeed ever made in such proportions other than rifles and ammunition but it has shown that indeed it can defeat pretty much anything under good conditions and often its just a matter to swarm and take a 33% succes rate as "simply a succes". Perhaps Ai can be involved with it, perhaps miniaturizitaion can makes these things yet even more scary than they are, the potential power of drone warfare has indeed many scary elements to it too, immagine its use within the wrong hands.
Ukraine has said .. "claimed" that they can already produce more than a million "drones" a year, and are upscaling that production to many millions. i do not have reason to disbelieve that such a thing is possible, not at all. I do think that whoever gets a very large quantitive and/or technological drone advantage can win the war irrespective of who has more tanks or soldiers or rockets or planes, mostly because the production volumes are quite stacked against such conventional weapons.
That really puts my perspective that "on the longer term, anything can happen", the longer this war takes. it's not unreasonable to think that the west might provide Ukraine with a lot of industrial help too as to upscale production, much that you might think that perhaps they are not "doing enough". Given that within the west lies the industries that do the crucial mass production of o so many components, the kind of "cheap diplomatic trick" as to give aid and not be so associated with it would be that all the Ukrainians have to do is mount said components in a drone assembly and off it goes. By the millions yes. And what design? Well that might evolve a lot and/or fast too, so lots of possible outcomes there too.
Thus, it is too hard to tell, the way i see it and especially given that it is a long war and one that is currently moving very few it can still go every way, i do think superiority in drone warfare might be key in victory and i do think Ukraine has a fair chance to attain that dominance too.