Double-dip!

[Ronnie the Rep]

Ok, I've looked through this thread and I don't pretend to be an economist but I have travelled around a lot over the last 15 years and I have to say that talking to the average man on the street the general concencus is that the Euro is fucked and that if that is the case the sooner it goes the better as the pain will less than if the EU try to shore it up.

I agree with this.

Does anyone of you "experts" think it will survive?

 

[SWP's back]

Germany won't let it fail as it works for them to tie themselves to weaker economies, thus keeping their currency artificially low and helping their exports. Especially as it allowed the weaker economies to borrow more to buy their goods.

I read a superb piece in the NYT a month back that sums it up well. I'll have a look later when I get back to the laptop and link it.

It will survive but with fewer members and more fiscal union with Germany running the show.

 

[BoyBlue_1985]

Im interested to see where France end up once its all said and done

 

[Ancient Citizen]

Germany won't let it fail as it works for them to tie themselves to weaker economies, thus keeping their currency artificially low and helping their exports. Especially as it allowed the weaker economies to borrow more to buy their goods.

I read a superb piece in the NYT a month back that sums it up well. I'll have a look later when I get back to the laptop and link it.

It will survive but with fewer members and more fiscal union with Germany running the show.

Will these fewer members include Spain and Italy, in your opinion SWP? It looks like Greece, Portugal and Ireland will eventually be shown the door; exclusion for these two would surely mean the Euro is unsustainable IMO.

 

[Ronnie the Rep]

Germany won't let it fail as it works for them to tie themselves to weaker economies, thus keeping their currency artificially low and helping their exports. Especially as it allowed the weaker economies to borrow more to buy their goods.

I read a superb piece in the NYT a month back that sums it up well. I'll have a look later when I get back to the laptop and link it.

It will survive but with fewer members and more fiscal union with Germany running the show.

as I understand it, if this happens then the Euro will be strong against the new currencies that replace it in the Countries that leave (and sterling I suppose) which would make German exports even more expensive.<br /><br />-- Mon Jul 30, 2012 9:41 am --<br /><br />

Im interested to see where France end up once its all said and done

Me too smug fuckers take far too much out and put too little in.

 

[SWP's back]

Germany won't let it fail as it works for them to tie themselves to weaker economies, thus keeping their currency artificially low and helping their exports. Especially as it allowed the weaker economies to borrow more to buy their goods.

I read a superb piece in the NYT a month back that sums it up well. I'll have a look later when I get back to the laptop and link it.

It will survive but with fewer members and more fiscal union with Germany running the show.

Will these fewer members include Spain and Italy, in your opinion SWP? It looks like Greece, Portugal and Ireland will eventually be shown the door; exclusion for these two would surely mean the Euro is unsustainable IMO.

I have no idea mate. It will depend entirely on what happens in the next few months. I think the majority will stay within the Euro but that's just my opinion. Time will tell but I'd stick my money on Spain and Italy staying in but ceding more control to Berlin. Same with Ireland and Portugal tbh, Greece wants to stay and are suffering but they should never have been allowed to join.

 

[SWP's back]

Germany won't let it fail as it works for them to tie themselves to weaker economies, thus keeping their currency artificially low and helping their exports. Especially as it allowed the weaker economies to borrow more to buy their goods.

I read a superb piece in the NYT a month back that sums it up well. I'll have a look later when I get back to the laptop and link it.

It will survive but with fewer members and more fiscal union with Germany running the show.

as I understand it, if this happens then the Euro will be strong against the new currencies that replace it in the Countries that leave (and sterling I suppose) which would make German exports even more expensive.

.

Not sure I follow you mate.

If Germany leaves, the Mark will be very strong and it would fuck their exports. Plus their 1.4 trillion exposure wouldn't help them.

If the Euro stays then it won't strengthen dramatically if at all.

 

[Ronnie the Rep]

Germany won't let it fail as it works for them to tie themselves to weaker economies, thus keeping their currency artificially low and helping their exports. Especially as it allowed the weaker economies to borrow more to buy their goods.

I read a superb piece in the NYT a month back that sums it up well. I'll have a look later when I get back to the laptop and link it.

It will survive but with fewer members and more fiscal union with Germany running the show.

as I understand it, if this happens then the Euro will be strong against the new currencies that replace it in the Countries that leave (and sterling I suppose) which would make German exports even more expensive.

.

Not sure I follow you mate.

If Germany leaves, the Mark will be very strong and it would fuck their exports. Plus their 1.4 trillion exposure wouldn't help them.

If the Euro stays then it won't strengthen dramatically if at all.

but the only countries to stay will be the ones with decent economies therebye strengthening their joint currency. I suppose what I am saying is that if the euro shrinks or collapses it could be as catastrophic for the germans as it is for the weaker members and that's why they are trying so hard to continue

 

[Rammy Blue]

All this political and economic claptrap is completely irrelevant, just look at the basics that the eurozone is fubar and once Spain and Italy inevitably pop then we can have all the policies we want but the fallout will fuck us up.

The Spaniards aren't happy and it's only going to get worse (you won't read the true stuff on mainstream media)....

http://www.greenleft.org.au/node/51702

Markets up still on the calendar year rammy. Your apocalypse still yet to materialise:

I wouldn't get too excited if I were you, there's only so much QE available to help kick the can further down the road.

Missed you last week, wasn't the same without you defending the realm.....

 

[BoyBlue_1985]

Germany won't let it fail as it works for them to tie themselves to weaker economies, thus keeping their currency artificially low and helping their exports. Especially as it allowed the weaker economies to borrow more to buy their goods.

I read a superb piece in the NYT a month back that sums it up well. I'll have a look later when I get back to the laptop and link it.

It will survive but with fewer members and more fiscal union with Germany running the show.

as I understand it, if this happens then the Euro will be strong against the new currencies that replace it in the Countries that leave (and sterling I suppose) which would make German exports even more expensive.

.

Not sure I follow you mate.

If Germany leaves, the Mark will be very strong and it would fuck their exports. Plus their 1.4 trillion exposure wouldn't help them.

If the Euro stays then it won't strengthen dramatically if at all.

If that is too happen though wouldn't we need sterling to weaken and keep exports cheaper