Elon Musk

[ChicagoBlue]

Them goal posts on the move again….

Just keeping it real. TSLA isn’t MSFT!

Weird as that’s exactly what you’ve been doing.

Trying to stay factual. Heresy, I know.

“Not a car company but a tech company, no not that sort of tech company” etc etc.

More FACTS.

Whichever way you slice it, their revenue and profit are not anywhere near where they should be for the price of the share, even taking into account a 50% reduction in their value.

Says YOU! See below for more, Kanute.

The share price of TSLA is driven solely by what some large TSLA Bulls believe Elon will turn it into in the next five years. It’s sentiment led only rather than analytical.

This is clearly not entirely true, as it is very widely held, but if it’s a meme stock to you, that’s just fine. Dealer’s choice.

-/-/-/-/-

You appear to want an argument (and have been pretty pointed) and I have zero interest. I couldn’t care less what the TSLA stock price is or if it goes to zero!

I’m am merely trying to provide FACTS to counter some of the hyperbole and personalization of numbers.

You can believe the stock should be worth $50, but it has as much effect on it as someone else believing it should be $500!

I live by the old adage…”Do you know what it’s worth? Whatever you can sell it for!”

We have a GLOBAL LIQUID MARKET and there are 3,216,000,000 TSLA shares outstanding. That suggests to me that those shares belong to people who believe something contrary to you, but I’m sure you’re right.

Daily volume was about 170,000,000 TODAY, and they all traded at prices far removed from whatever price you believe they are worth. That’s the beauty of the market!

You can “should” and “believe” and “analyze” until you’re blue in the face, but MONEY TALKS and today’s money says “about $230!”

Now, on with the Musk and Tesla hate…

 

[I'm With Stupid]

Just keeping it real. TSLA isn’t MSFT!

Trying to stay factual. Heresy, I know.

More FACTS.

Says YOU! See below for more, Kanute.

This is clearly not entirely true, as it is very widely held, but if it’s a meme stock to you, that’s just fine. Dealer’s choice.

-/-/-/-/-

You appear to want an argument (and have been pretty pointed) and I have zero interest. I couldn’t care less what the TSLA stock price is or if it goes to zero!

I’m am merely trying to provide FACTS to counter some of the hyperbole and personalization of numbers.

You can believe the stock should be worth $50, but it has as much effect on it as someone else believing it should be $500!

I live by the old adage…”Do you know what it’s worth? Whatever you can sell it for!”

We have a GLOBAL LIQUID MARKET and there are 3,216,000,000 TSLA shares outstanding. That suggests to me that those shares belong to people who believe something contrary to you, but I’m sure you’re right.

Daily volume was about 170,000,000 TODAY, and they all traded at prices far removed from whatever price you believe they are worth. That’s the beauty of the market!

You can “should” and “believe” and “analyze” until you’re blue in the face, but MONEY TALKS and today’s money says “about $230!”

Now, on with the Musk and Tesla hate…

I think the point is arguably that the price was always less to do with the fundamentals of the business, and more to do with belief in Musk as a personality. There's also the fact that (at least in 2023) 43% of the shares are owned by retail investors, compared to an average of 18% for other tech stocks and just 11% of the S&P500 stocks. In other words, a far greater percentage of stocks are owned by ordinary punters who aren't typically doing the sort of research into business fundamentals as large investors, which at least partly justifies its description as a meme stock. It also explains why Tesla stock fluctuates far more wildly than most other stocks.

As for what something is 'worth' well in a sense you're right, except for the fact that if that worth is based entirely on lots of other people also believing and acting like it's worth the same too, you eventually end up with a huge correction, and if you're not lucky, a global financial crash.

 

[ChicagoBlue]

I think the point is arguably that the price was always less to do with the fundamentals of the business, and more to do with belief in Musk as a personality.

If I cared, I’d argue that point, but I don’t.

There's also the fact that (at least in 2023) 43% of the shares are owned by retail investors, compared to an average of 18% for other tech stocks and just 11% of the S&P500 stocks. In other words, a far greater percentage of stocks are owned by ordinary punters who aren't typically doing the sort of research into business fundamentals as large investors, which at least partly justifies its description as a meme stock. It also explains why Tesla stock fluctuates far more wildly than most other stocks.

I think there are a significant number of large investors invested in TSLA, but for many who have made good money on it, it is a store of wealth, and thus cash, for other things.

The point below is that those people have almost always found a willing buyer at prices that are not reflective of TSLA as a normal “tech company.”

As for what something is 'worth' well in a sense you're right, except for the fact that if that worth is based entirely on lots of other people also believing and acting like it's worth the same too, you eventually end up with a huge correction, and if you're not lucky, a global financial crash.

There is no “except.” That’s the market at work. I don’t need 10, 100, 1000, or 1M people to think it’s worth what I want to sell it for, I need 1. Only rarely is that person NOT indicative of the current market as a whole.

 

[SWP's back]

The point below is that those people have almost always found a willing buyer at prices that are not reflective of TSLA as a normal “tech company.”

For the exact reasons you’ve already been told. The share price is based on what investors believe Musk can do with robotaxis and AI home robots and the like.

 

[SWP's back]

There is no “except.” That’s the market at work. I don’t need 10, 100, 1000, or 1M people to think it’s worth what I want to sell it for, I need 1. Only rarely is that person NOT indicative of the current market as a whole.

Exactly like crypto which has no intrinsic value and is entirely sentiment led which is also why it’s compared with TSLA.

 

[west didsblue]

Just keeping it real. TSLA isn’t MSFT!

Trying to stay factual. Heresy, I know.

More FACTS.

Says YOU! See below for more, Kanute.

This is clearly not entirely true, as it is very widely held, but if it’s a meme stock to you, that’s just fine. Dealer’s choice.

-/-/-/-/-

You appear to want an argument (and have been pretty pointed) and I have zero interest. I couldn’t care less what the TSLA stock price is or if it goes to zero!

I’m am merely trying to provide FACTS to counter some of the hyperbole and personalization of numbers.

You can believe the stock should be worth $50, but it has as much effect on it as someone else believing it should be $500!

I live by the old adage…”Do you know what it’s worth? Whatever you can sell it for!”

We have a GLOBAL LIQUID MARKET and there are 3,216,000,000 TSLA shares outstanding. That suggests to me that those shares belong to people who believe something contrary to you, but I’m sure you’re right.

Daily volume was about 170,000,000 TODAY, and they all traded at prices far removed from whatever price you believe they are worth. That’s the beauty of the market!

You can “should” and “believe” and “analyze” until you’re blue in the face, but MONEY TALKS and today’s money says “about $230!”

Now, on with the Musk and Tesla hate…

If normal business metrics are applied to Tesla - sales, profit, new product potential etc etc, the share price bears no relation to practically any other listed share. However good its products are, there is plenty of competition from numerous other suppliers. However innovative it is, there are plenty of other companies just as innovative. If we take self driving cars which was always many people’s justification for its inflated SP, Tesla is as far away from level 5 autonomous vehicles as everyone else, and even if it were anywhere near there’s no guarantee it would turn into a huge money spinner. Tesla has a P/E ratio more like what you’d see in a start up that has a truly innovative product that’s going to take the world by storm. It’s way past that stage and it’s not going to happen again.

Whilst there may be some argument in Musk controlling the regulatory environment, any relaxed regulations will also apply to its competitors.

The only thing left is that it has become the corporate personification of the MAGA movement endorsed by the orange fuhrer. As soon as MAGA starts to disintegrate so will Tesla’s SP. It’s already down 50% and once it becomes just a normal profitable car/tech company it will drop another ~80% to bring it in line with its peers. That’s if anyone will still buy its products, because MAGA’s core supporters aren’t interested in EVs.

At the moment it’s like crypto, as other people have said. It’s become a bet on the success of MAGA.

 

[M18CTID]

My NIO shares were up 17% yesterday. It's only one day though and they're still way lower than the average price I've paid but hopefully in the long-term I do well out of them. If the price gets remotely close to some of the predictions that were kicking around a few years ago and I'm still invested in the stock then I'll be retiring on a very nice pension. According to many, they have a good product on their hands - their battery swap service is surely a huge positive as well - but as others have said there are plenty of other good brands in the EV market too and competition is fierce.

 

[fulabeer]

 

[ChicagoBlue]

For the exact reasons you’ve already been told. The share price is based on what investors believe Musk can do with robotaxis and AI home robots and the like.

“Been told”?!

I was the one who said it! You’re the one saying there is NOTHING behind it! UFB!

 

[ChicagoBlue]

Exactly like crypto which has no intrinsic value and is entirely sentiment led which is also why it’s compared with TSLA.

Nonsense! TSLA has real estate, hard assets, profits, and desirable technology, and thus has intrinsic value. Crypto lives on the belief that someone will buy that belief for more tomorrow.

Like I said earlier, you only seem interested in an argument and I’m not interested, especially considering the nonsense you’re spouting now.

Later.

 

[ChicagoBlue]

If normal business metrics are applied to Tesla - sales, profit, new product potential etc etc, the share price bears no relation to practically any other listed share. However good its products are, there is plenty of competition from numerous other suppliers. However innovative it is, there are plenty of other companies just as innovative. If we take self driving cars which was always many people’s justification for its inflated SP, Tesla is as far away from level 5 autonomous vehicles as everyone else, and even if it were anywhere near there’s no guarantee it would turn into a huge money spinner. Tesla has a P/E ratio more like what you’d see in a start up that has a truly innovative product that’s going to take the world by storm. It’s way past that stage and it’s not going to happen again.

Whilst there may be some argument in Musk controlling the regulatory environment, any relaxed regulations will also apply to its competitors.

The only thing left is that it has become the corporate personification of the MAGA movement endorsed by the orange fuhrer. As soon as MAGA starts to disintegrate so will Tesla’s SP. It’s already down 50% and once it becomes just a normal profitable car/tech company it will drop another ~80% to bring it in line with its peers. That’s if anyone will still buy its products, because MAGA’s core supporters aren’t interested in EVs.

At the moment it’s like crypto, as other people have said. It’s become a bet on the success of MAGA.

You are acting like I am defending the market valuation of TSLA. I am not. I am saying that SOMEONE (as in millions of shareholders) does that every single day but it just isn’t at the valuation you and others deem more appropriate. I own a metric shitton of Berkshire…Buffet doesn’t believe it, either!

Some companies trade at a 5 PE, others at 55. Why? Belief in something. When someone buys TSLA at $200, someone is selling at $200. That means they both feel differently about it, even with access to the same information. THAT is what creates a liquid market, and THAT is all I’m saying.

In the effort to denounce, denigrate and decry anything Musk, MAGA or Tesla, you (like others) are reading too much into things. (Shocked that this could happen on an Internet forum!)

Neither you, me nor the fence post have any control over the price of TSLA and for those for whom traditional stock analysis is a must before buying a stock, TSLA will probably never be in your portfolio. That’s perfectly fine, and I certainly don’t care, but millions of other people (even long before Musk came out as a Nazi or a MAGAt or a DOGE disciple) have felt differently.

For context, the stock is up 6% so far today, after being up about 4% yesterday. Idiots, the lot of them, right?

Just so I understand…



SMART!!!



ABOVE MARKET RETURNS, BUT…




STUPID!!! HOW CAN YOU OWN IT?! IT’S GOT NO INTRINSIC VALUE, IT’S LIKE CRYPTO AND IS GOING TO DIE WITH MAGA!!!

Did I get it right???

Maybe this is the beginning of the end, I don’t know OR CARE, but while there is a market of believers, there will be ups and downs.

As with many rides, it’s where you got on and where you get off that determines your experience. I’m not on this ride, so I can’t comment…but the MARKET does, every day, regardless of what the gawpers and naysayers are saying and doing.

 

[I'm With Stupid]

My NIO shares were up 17% yesterday. It's only one day though and they're still way lower than the average price I've paid but hopefully in the long-term I do well out of them. If the price gets remotely close to some of the predictions that were kicking around a few years ago and I'm still invested in the stock then I'll be retiring on a very nice pension. According to many, they have a good product on their hands - their battery swap service is surely a huge positive as well - but as others have said there are plenty of other good brands in the EV market too and competition is fierce.

Battery swap services are good if they have the appropriate level of customer service to go along with it. I was chatting with the owner of a motorbike rental company here in Vietnam that bought a bunch of electric motorbikes with a battery swap deal as part of the purchase price. The company failed to offer the level of promised infrastructure and then sold off the battery rental part of the company to a third party, who had absolutely no experience. He said that it was taking up to a month to get a replacement at times, and ended up getting rid of them all and replacing them with petrol. I'm sure the big Chinese manufacturers will run things better, but it's definitely something to be aware of.

 

[west didsblue]

You are acting like I am defending the market valuation of TSLA. I am not. I am saying that SOMEONE (as in millions of shareholders) does that every single day but it just isn’t at the valuation you and others deem more appropriate. I own a metric shitton of Berkshire…Buffet doesn’t believe it, either!

Some companies trade at a 5 PE, others at 55. Why? Belief in something. When someone buys TSLA at $200, someone is selling at $200. That means they both feel differently about it, even with access to the same information. THAT is what creates a liquid market, and THAT is all I’m saying.

In the effort to denounce, denigrate and decry anything Musk, MAGA or Tesla, you (like others) are reading too much into things. (Shocked that this could happen on an Internet forum!)

Neither you, me nor the fence post have any control over the price of TSLA and for those for whom traditional stock analysis is a must before buying a stock, TSLA will probably never be in your portfolio. That’s perfectly fine, and I certainly don’t care, but millions of other people (even long before Musk came out as a Nazi or a MAGAt or a DOGE disciple) have felt differently.

For context, the stock is up 6% so far today, after being up about 4% yesterday. Idiots, the lot of them, right?

Just so I understand…

View attachment 149582

SMART!!!

View attachment 149583

ABOVE MARKET RETURNS, BUT…


View attachment 149584

STUPID!!! HOW CAN YOU OWN IT?! IT’S GOT NO INTRINSIC VALUE, IT’S LIKE CRYPTO AND IS GOING TO DIE WITH MAGA!!!

Did I get it right???

Maybe this is the beginning of the end, I don’t know OR CARE, but while there is a market of believers, there will be ups and downs.

As with many rides, it’s where you got on and where you get off that determines your experience. I’m not on this ride, so I can’t comment…but the MARKET does, every day, regardless of what the gawpers and naysayers are saying and doing.

I don’t disagree with your general point but all I’m saying is that there are unusual factors that are affecting the stock valuation. Three or four years ago it was overpriced because people thought they were so far ahead of the competition that the company was going to become the biggest motor manufacturer in the world. A similar situation played out with the dot com bubble. For example a start up online booking tool briefly had a larger market cap than some of the UK’s biggest industrial companies. That didn’t last long. It’s slightly different with Tesla because it has a new USP which is its close ties to MAGA/Trump, and I believe its fortunes are intrinsically related to the success or otherwise of MAGA. But, as you say, the market will decide.

 

[I'm With Stupid]

The market is the market is kind of a weird position to take though. It's basically like saying that because someone paid that price, no-one else can have an opinion on whether it's worth the price they paid, because someone once thought it was worth that amount. In essence, what you're saying is that we can never accuse Antony of being overvalued.

 

[ChicagoBlue]

I don’t disagree with your general point but all I’m saying is that there are unusual factors that are affecting the stock valuation. Three or four years ago it was overpriced because people thought they were so far ahead of the competition that the company was going to become the biggest motor manufacturer in the world. A similar situation played out with the dot com bubble. For example a start up online booking tool briefly had a larger market cap than some of the UK’s biggest industrial companies. That didn’t last long. It’s slightly different with Tesla because it has a new USP which is its close ties to MAGA/Trump, and I believe its fortunes are intrinsically related to the success or otherwise of MAGA. But, as you say, the market will decide.

To me, Musk has used the U.S. govt to help him create the lowest cost producer of EVs outside China, with Chinese vehicles banned in America.

In addition, he has onshored production of both batteries and vehicles for domestic production, which means he’s ahead of the game on batteries and getting subsidies others cannot enjoy…yet.

His tooling and production is reducing vehicles to minimum moving parts and minimum structural parts, which requires minimum human interaction, and robots where able. He also “enjoys” union-free workplaces, which keeps costs down.

These are all advantages that others are struggling to erode. GM is still pushing hard with its Ultium platform, but pricing is a problem, as is overcoming GM’s build quality reputation, but they’re getting there. Ford has cut back on EVs for Hybrids, as they don’t have proprietary battery tech or even a plug & play platform, and Stellantis is almost dead in the water here.

The desire for low cost SUV-type vehicles in the U.S. is massive. Tesla looks like it’s going to be first to market with a semi-luxury $35,000 EV Compact SUV with decent range. That could be a game-changer…or could have been!

Like you, I think Musk is cooking his own goose with the Trump-MAGA-DOGE bullshit. However, it wouldn’t surprise me if he steps down from Tesla to focus on Space X and the A.I. robotics revolution he sees for the future.

Whether that washes his stink off the Tesla name and vehicle range or not, I have no idea, but it feels like the timing and execution of the CyberTruck have harmed the brand, possibly terminally.

Ironically, the market will decide!

 

[ChicagoBlue]

The market is the market is kind of a weird position to take though. It's basically like saying that because someone paid that price, no-one else can have an opinion on whether it's worth the price they paid, because someone once thought it was worth that amount. In essence, what you're saying is that we can never accuse Antony of being overvalued.

That’s NOT what I’m saying, if that’s aimed at me. What I AM saying is the market doesn’t care what your opinion is, until it does!

That’s the beauty of it…no-one knows if, or where, the tipping point might be!

People buy stocks all the way up to where they crash, and many even try to catch the falling knife, believing they’re buying in at a new low for future outsized gains.

As for Antony, and Grealish for that matter, you can have any opinion you like about player valuations, because opinions on such things are like arseholes…

 

[I'm With Stupid]

Like you, I think Musk is cooking his own goose with the Trump-MAGA-DOGE bullshit. However, it wouldn’t surprise me if he steps down from Tesla to focus on Space X and the A.I. robotics revolution he sees for the future.

Whether that washes his stink off the Tesla name and vehicle range or not, I have no idea, but it feels like the timing and execution of the CyberTruck have harmed the brand, possibly terminally.

I'd assume that would depend on whether he remains a major shareholder tbh. As long as the company benefits him, and he remains a destructive force in people's lives, I can't see people going back to them. Then again, memories are short and people tend to let their wallet decide once any hysteria has died down.

I genuinely wonder the extent to which he is surprised by all this. Let's be honest, maybe he's always been like this, but it's also entirely possible that he's the most high-profile example of someone being radicalized by social media (ironically his own platform). We know that it basically just shows you what you want to hear and surrounds you with voices that agree with you a lot of the time, so it's possible that he genuinely thought that everyone was behind him. I've seen enough previously sensible people radicalized online, particularly during covid.

 

[ChicagoBlue]

I'd assume that would depend on whether he remains a major shareholder tbh. As long as the company benefits him, and he remains a destructive force in people's lives, I can't see people going back to them. Then again, memories are short and people tend to let their wallet decide once any hysteria has died down.

I genuinely wonder the extent to which he is surprised by all this. Let's be honest, maybe he's always been like this, but it's also entirely possible that he's the most high-profile example of someone being radicalized by social media (ironically his own platform). We know that it basically just shows you what you want to hear and surrounds you with voices that agree with you a lot of the time, so it's possible that he genuinely thought that everyone was behind him. I've seen enough previously sensible people radicalized online, particularly during covid.

I think he’s an enabled asshole, for whom money has always played a large role in his ability to be that asshole.

That said, I like the idea of generating your own electricity to power your own house and your own car(s), while providing any excess to battery storage on your property or grid credits for personal use at a later date. Indeed, I have put my money where my mouth is on the latter. I use solar to power a house and car, and deliver the excess to the grid for when I’ll need it over the winter! 2/3 of my upfront costs were borne by the Federal Government and local utility, because it saves them creating new electrical generation facilities, which gives me a 6.7 year break-even on my own outlay. I’m almost 1/3 of the way there and ahead of schedule.

THAT is what I “bought into,” not the megalomania that has come with it!

The social media aspect of all this was a huge black eye for him, because in his zeal to be a dick he made a ridiculous offer that was accepted and the courts forced him to live up to it! There is no way he wanted to buy Twitter at $24Bn, but his mouth got him in trouble…again! That comes from money bring his enabler, and in America, if you have the money to back it up, you can almost say and do ANYTHING!!

I think his current social media guise is meant to create money. I think it’s that craven and that calculated, but I also believe he is full on MAGA, in that he has swallowed Trump’s fever dreams hook, line and sinker.

In short, Trump is enabling Musk, because Musk is enabling Trump!

It’s amazing what $250M can buy these days, isn’t it?!

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

You are acting like I am defending the market valuation of TSLA. I am not. I am saying that SOMEONE (as in millions of shareholders) does that every single day but it just isn’t at the valuation you and others deem more appropriate. I own a metric shitton of Berkshire…Buffet doesn’t believe it, either!

Some companies trade at a 5 PE, others at 55. Why? Belief in something. When someone buys TSLA at $200, someone is selling at $200. That means they both feel differently about it, even with access to the same information. THAT is what creates a liquid market, and THAT is all I’m saying.

In the effort to denounce, denigrate and decry anything Musk, MAGA or Tesla, you (like others) are reading too much into things. (Shocked that this could happen on an Internet forum!)

Neither you, me nor the fence post have any control over the price of TSLA and for those for whom traditional stock analysis is a must before buying a stock, TSLA will probably never be in your portfolio. That’s perfectly fine, and I certainly don’t care, but millions of other people (even long before Musk came out as a Nazi or a MAGAt or a DOGE disciple) have felt differently.

For context, the stock is up 6% so far today, after being up about 4% yesterday. Idiots, the lot of them, right?

Just so I understand…

View attachment 149582

SMART!!!

View attachment 149583

ABOVE MARKET RETURNS, BUT…


View attachment 149584

STUPID!!! HOW CAN YOU OWN IT?! IT’S GOT NO INTRINSIC VALUE, IT’S LIKE CRYPTO AND IS GOING TO DIE WITH MAGA!!!

Did I get it right???

Maybe this is the beginning of the end, I don’t know OR CARE, but while there is a market of believers, there will be ups and downs.

As with many rides, it’s where you got on and where you get off that determines your experience. I’m not on this ride, so I can’t comment…but the MARKET does, every day, regardless of what the gawpers and naysayers are saying and doing.

If only someone had said 3 months ago that it would be a great time to sell....

 

[ChicagoBlue]

If only someone had said 3 months ago that it would be a great time to sell....

Did you? Or was it me? It’s not the only one…

Trump has decimated the markets’ mentality.

The truth of Trump is writ large so far, just as the anticipation of same ran it up for a month or two!

Sadly, while we are focused on bullshit, his minions are below the surface reshaping the future daily lives of Americans in ways we cannot yet conceive.