Elon Musk

I think there’s a dawning realisation that irrespective of Musk’s bullshit that fully unassisted self driving cars that can go pretty much anywhere without close supervision by a driver/operator (level 5 autonomy) is decades away. It’s something that software safety specialists have always known but it’s very difficult to spell out to the general public that there’s a huge difference between it working safely 99.9% of the time and it working safely 99.999999% of the time. The recent crashes of a number of Teslas in self drive mode have probably illustrated this better than any dry report from a certification authority. I reckon this is dragging down Tesla as much as any bullshit from Musk.
 
west didsblue said:
I think there’s a dawning realisation that irrespective of Musk’s bullshit that fully unassisted self driving cars that can go pretty much anywhere without close supervision by a driver/operator (level 5 autonomy) is decades away. It’s something that software safety specialists have always known but it’s very difficult to spell out to the general public that there’s a huge difference between it working safely 99.9% of the time and it working safely 99.999999% of the time. The recent crashes of a number of Teslas in self drive mode have probably illustrated this better than any dry report from a certification authority. I reckon this is dragging down Tesla as much as any bullshit from Musk.
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And people harp on about train drivers being phased out by having driver-less trains!
 
west didsblue said:
I think there’s a dawning realisation that irrespective of Musk’s bullshit that fully unassisted self driving cars that can go pretty much anywhere without close supervision by a driver/operator (level 5 autonomy) is decades away. It’s something that software safety specialists have always known but it’s very difficult to spell out to the general public that there’s a huge difference between it working safely 99.9% of the time and it working safely 99.999999% of the time. The recent crashes of a number of Teslas in self drive mode have probably illustrated this better than any dry report from a certification authority. I reckon this is dragging down Tesla as much as any bullshit from Musk.
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To be fair it’s Still far lower % of crashes than human driver cars.

The biggest problem with AI cars isn’t the AI it’s self, its human drivers on the road driving in erratic ways . If all cars were AI there would be pretty much 0 crashes as AI would be able to predict how the other AI’s decision making works.

This however will alway be an issues as there won’t be a binary switch between AI and Human driver.
 
Zubrman said:
And people harp on about train drivers being phased out by having driver-less trains!
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The Docklands trains in London have been driverless since 1987. From what I can see from a quick google they have had one incident in 87. Nothing since.

The main issue with it on standard lines is assisting disabled passengers etc and dealing with crossings that Docklands won’t have.
 
west didsblue said:
I think there’s a dawning realisation that irrespective of Musk’s bullshit that fully unassisted self driving cars that can go pretty much anywhere without close supervision by a driver/operator (level 5 autonomy) is decades away. It’s something that software safety specialists have always known but it’s very difficult to spell out to the general public that there’s a huge difference between it working safely 99.9% of the time and it working safely 99.999999% of the time. The recent crashes of a number of Teslas in self drive mode have probably illustrated this better than any dry report from a certification authority. I reckon this is dragging down Tesla as much as any bullshit from Musk.
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It’s very likely full autonomous self driving cars will be solved by the hive mind, not each car having their own independent super computer level proprietary AI.

Open source AI rolled out to all car manufacturers, essentially Android OS for Automobiles. They would communicate with each other and prevent collisions with other vehicles. If they can link into a hive mind with mobiles and wearables and street cameras then vehicle-pedestrian collisions would be reduced.

I don't see that model being compatible with the flash dickhead Mobile producing Tesla.
 
grunge said:
The Docklands trains in London have been driverless since 1987. From what I can see from a quick google they have had one incident in 87. Nothing since.

The main issue with it on standard lines is assisting disabled passengers etc and dealing with crossings that Docklands won’t have.
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Yes, I think their tracks are pretty inaccessible on the whole. Up on raised levels above the roads with no trackside access. No shopping trolleys pushed on to the tracks by scrotes etc. Plus they don't drive too fast in general.
 
grunge said:
The Docklands trains in London have been driverless since 1987. From what I can see from a quick google they have had one incident in 87. Nothing since.

The main issue with it on standard lines is assisting disabled passengers etc and dealing with crossings that Docklands won’t have.
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Compared to driverless cars, safely implementing driverless trains to the required safety level would be a piece of piss, and it’s still only been implemented in very controlled environments like the DLR and at various airports. For a fraction of the investment required to achieve level 5 autonomy in cars, the whole rail network could be fully automated. Even then, as you say there are a number of variables that will probably need human interaction for quite some time. There’s about 22,000 journeys a day to manage on 10,000 miles of track. Compare that to maybe 30,000,000 car journeys a day on 250,000 miles of road with variable road markings, gradients, intersections, roadworks and no rails to guide the cars. Then there’s going to be a mix of autonomous and driven cars for decades. For the foreseeable future the best that can be achieved for cars is level 4 autonomy which would be geographically constrained as well as other constraints. The holy grail of fully autonomous cars right across the road network won’t be achieved in most people’s lifetimes imo.
 
grunge said:
The Docklands trains in London have been driverless since 1987. From what I can see from a quick google they have had one incident in 87. Nothing since.

The main issue with it on standard lines is assisting disabled passengers etc and dealing with crossings that Docklands won’t have.
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The docklands trains are manned with an operative who does the manoeuvring to and from the depot and takes over if anything goes wrong
 
grunge said:
To be fair it’s Still far lower % of crashes than human driver cars.

The biggest problem with AI cars isn’t the AI it’s self, its human drivers on the road driving in erratic ways . If all cars were AI there would be pretty much 0 crashes as AI would be able to predict how the other AI’s decision making works.

This however will alway be an issues as there won’t be a binary switch between AI and Human driver.
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A ptoblem I have found with the tech that keeps your car a safe distance from the vehicle in front is this.
You are in the middle lane of a 3 lane motorway.
A slower moving vehicle is in front of you which you wish to overtake.
Having checked your mirror and decided to make the maneouvre the tech will not allow you to accelerate until the whole of your car is clear of the slower moving vehicle ahead. This means that you can't build up speed exactly when you want, in order to join the third lane.
The tech interferes with your personal judgement.
Likewise if you want to get out of the third lane to move across towards an exit.
As soon as your car starts to get behind a slower moving vehicle speed is scrubbed off straight away.
This is not always ideal!
 
At what price do we think the banks will margin call his $40bn TSLA stock surety for their $10bn loan? As soon as they do then TSLA will crash again.
 
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Robinho's Subbuteo said:
What happens when a Tesla hits 88 miler per hour?
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HT_tesla_fire_jtm_131003_16x9_992.jpg
 
I'm With Stupid said:
Long distance or metro?
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Metro in terms of they service Sydney. The distance was long enough, at a guess 20 stations on the line I used regularly, others far longer.
The platform is shielded from the tracks by a glass wall. Once the driverless train stops, doors open. It stops in the exact spot to align with the doors. It is level with the platform to ensure wheelchair users can easily access the trains.
It requires investment but also co-operation from the unions which we will never have.
 
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