Energy, the environment & climate change.

[Chippy_boy]

Oh, I see now. Stick your head in the sand and your fingers in your ears saying ‘la la la, la‘ and it will be sorted out? Well I never.

I'll file you under, "The hysteria around it is perhaps caused by people who wrongly believe the world is ending (because they know no better)"

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

I think some things we do, such as the way plastics are dumped into the oceans, are absolutely diabolical and should be a source of shame to all of us.

That said, I really don't buy into this narrative of "climate catastrophe" with respect to CO2 and warming etc. Climate change is a much better term. Our climate is always changing and yes the rate of change is faster but that does not mean the world will end. It will simply be a bit different, with some places warmer and wetter, others drier and some colder. And we are talking decades upon decades before there's anything dramatically detrimental and even then there will be some upsides never discussed, such as less people dying of cold, places which are currently not arable becoming viable for agriculture.

Neither do people typically consider the technological advances which may occur over the next 100 years to put changes into reverse if needed. "Free" clean energy from nuclear fusion reactors meaning near zero athropogenic CO2 output. Enormous carbon sequestration capability, either man-made or bio-engineered, for example.

It's not something for us to become complacent about, for sure. But it's not something to lose sleep over either, IMO. The hysteria around it is perhaps caused by people who wrongly believe the world is ending (because they know no better) and by factions whose self-interest is served by fuelling this melodrama. It's naïve to think that all of the content being pushed out is done with virtuous intent. Some of it is done for commercial gain. Does anyone think Elon Musk is on a mission to save the planet? I don't. Ditto are Volvo (for example) so concerned about the environment? Or concerned about how to continue to sell cars?

Watch that documentary on the fishing industry if you get a chance.

All these companies that sell 'sustainable' fish mention nothing of the up to 40% of the plastic in the oceans being discarded fishing nets and other waste plastics from the fishing industry. Also explains how the oceans have a huge part to play in how the planet regulates CO2.

 

[es1]

That said, I really don't buy into this narrative of "climate catastrophe" with respect to CO2 and warming etc. Climate change is a much better term. Our climate is always changing and yes the rate of change is faster but that does not mean the world will end. It will simply be a bit different, with some places warmer and wetter, others drier and some colder.

it's all part of the balancing act that keeps the world in a sort of equalibrium, if certain things change, even small things that seem insignificant then other elements of the ecosystem can be damanged which can lead to damage elsewhere and so on and so on, and once this process starts happening it'll be impossible to rectify.

i dont imagine this will be the end for the human race, we'll be able to adapt and sort ourselves out to some degree and i cant imagine that it'll happen in our lifetimes. but it will happen at some point and it will lead to many species going extinct, many areas of the globe changing and it will all have been man made and in the most part, all avoidable.

but we couldnt be arsed to sort it out because it would cost a bit of money and reduce our quality of life

 

[Chippy_boy]

Watch that documentary on the fishing industry if you get a chance.

All these companies that sell 'sustainable' fish mention nothing of the up to 40% of the plastic in the oceans being discarded fishing nets and other waste plastics from the fishing industry. Also explains how the oceans have a huge part to play in how the planet regulates CO2.

I'm sure it's painful viewing. For example, some of the better-intentioned rules about minimum fish sizes and weights, meaning we just throw dead fish back in the sea when in fact we could be eating them at least.

The physical damage we are doing to the planet with plastics, pollution, deforestation etc are much more concerning to me than CO2-driven climate change.

That is not to say the latter is a non-issue, but I do think it's over-hyped. The IPCC published details of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) which pulls together an unprecedented amount of data in order to make more reliable predictions. A key concept is Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios which consider how much additional heating ("Radiative Forcing") is applied and the likely resultant global mean temperature increases. Net net, the lower and middle scenarios are predicted to result in rises of only a couple of degrees by 2100. Warming of more than 4C is unlikely in all scenarios other than the "do fuck all" (technical term ;-) scenario RCP8.5.

The models go a long way out in as well, predicting temps at +2C to +4C above the baseline until 2300 for all other than worst-case scenarios.

Is this concerning? Sure. Is the world coming to an end, as extinction rebellion would have you believe? Absolutely not.

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

I'm sure it's painful viewing. For example, some of the better-intentioned rules about minimum fish sizes and weights, meaning we just throw dead fish back in the sea when in fact we could be eating them at least.

The physical damage we are doing to the planet with plastics, pollution, deforestation etc are much more concerning to me than CO2-driven climate change.

That is not to say the latter is a non-issue, but I do think it's over-hyped. The IPCC published details of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) which pulls together an unprecedented amount of data in order to make more reliable predictions. A key concept is Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios which consider how much additional heating ("Radiative Forcing") is applied and the likely resultant global mean temperature increases. Net net, the lower and middle scenarios are predicted to result in rises of only a couple of degrees by 2100. Warming of more than 4C is unlikely in all scenarios other than the "do fuck all" (technical term ;-) scenario RCP8.5.

The models go a long way out in as well, predicting temps at +2C to +4C above the baseline until 2300 for all other than worst-case scenarios.

Is this concerning? Sure. Is the world coming to an end, as extinction rebellion would have you believe? Absolutely not.

I still have a degree of scepticism over the IPCC. Something just doesn't sit right with me.

 

[BlueHammer85]

just don't see how we can prevent environmental issues when the world population is growing at such an alarming rate

50 years ago , world population was 3.7 billion

right now it is 7.6 billion!

 

[Manchester33]

Is this concerning? Sure. Is the world coming to an end, as extinction rebellion would have you believe? Absolutely not.

The world isn't coming to an end. But it's heading towards catastrophe. Even with moderate increases in global temperatures, we'll see:

- mass extinction of both animal and plant species
- increased extreme weather events
- increased famine/food supply issues
- increased chance of pandemics
- rise in sea level
- desertification

All of these will lead to increases in conflicts, economic damage, vast migration etc. Millions of people will be dragged into poverty.

It's incredibly disingenuous to plan to rectify climate change with currently unavailable technology, rather than tackle the issue before it's too late. Sadly I think we're all too selfish to change our ways in any meaningful way.

 

[Chippy_boy]

The world isn't coming to an end. But it's heading towards catastrophe. Even with moderate increases in global temperatures, we'll see:

- mass extinction of both animal and plant species
- increased extreme weather events
- increased famine/food supply issues
- increased chance of pandemics
- rise in sea level
- desertification

All of these will lead to increases in conflicts, economic damage, vast migration etc. Millions of people will be dragged into poverty.

It's incredibly disingenuous to plan to rectify climate change with currently unavailable technology, rather than tackle the issue before it's too late. Sadly I think we're all too selfish to change our ways in any meaningful way.

I think we will see some of these effects, I agree. Semantics perhaps but I don't think that this is a catastrophe however, and even if it is, I don't think it's reasonable to pin it all on climate change. Famine in Africa for example is something we as mankind have had the ability to fix for decades and yet relatively speaking have done fuck all about it. If we do see increased famine in Africa, then it's also as a result of our inaction when action to prevent it is absolutely possible.

And I don't know what is disingenuous about suggesting that 2100 to 2200 technology will inevitably be unimaginable compared to what we have today. That's just a statement of fact, is it not?

 

[es1]

I think we will see some of these effects, I agree. Semantics perhaps but I don't think that this is a catastrophe however, and even if it is, I don't think it's reasonable to pin it all on climate change. Famine in Africa for example is something we as mankind have had the ability to fix for decades and yet relatively speaking have done fuck all about it. If we do see increased famine in Africa, then it's also as a result of our inaction when action to prevent it is absolutely possible.

And I don't know what is disingenuous about suggesting that 2100 to 2200 technology will inevitably be unimaginable compared to what we have today. That's just a statement of fact, is it not?

seems risky to gamble being able to solve these issues on technology that we dont know will exist or if it will, when and if it'll be any good!

 

[Chippy_boy]

I still have a degree of scepticism over the IPCC. Something just doesn't sit right with me.

Well them being established by Margaret Thatcher in response to increasing threats of industrial action by coal-miners, should ring some alarm bells for sure!