Well, on paper it comes down to whether they think his contribution next season is worth more than the difference between this season's price and next's. E.g. If they can get £120m for him this season and 75 next, is his contribution to them next season worth the £45m?
In practice, whether the deal will happen will come down to whether he is happy to tell BVB he wants a move. If he is, it will happen, if he isn't, it may not.
What will affect that is the fact that we are only in the market for a number 9 this season. I don't think we'll hold off, even for Haaland. If its not to be Haaland this summer, we'll buy someone else this, because this is the main gap in our team. And we're not going to buy Kane or Lukaku this summer and then Haaland in 12 months.
So it's this summer or never imo. I think we'll get him, but only after a KDB/Wolfsburg type saga.