EU referendum

[steviemc]

It's almost entirely down to the Chinese. Their excess production is equal to the whole of the EU's production capacity and they're happy to sell it at a loss which has driven prices down hugely. The government could intervene if they really wanted to but they don't, so it's irrelevant really.

Perhaps you mean the EU could have intervened? They could have increased tariffs on Chinese steel, however they chose not to do that.

How could our government have intervened? I'm genuinely interested.

 

[FanchesterCity]

Production costs were far lower outside of the UK.

A primary cause was the strength of the Euro against the Pound - we simply couldn't compete. There were smaller issues such as much higher business rates in the UK making profitability more difficult, but ultimately the other EU members chose to do nothing to help British steel. By ensuring it was illegal for us to intervene, the remaining steel producing EU members effectively stuck nails into our coffin, and became beneficiaries from our loss.

Why didn't an investor come in to 'ride out' the exchange rate until the pound became stronger (and improve the competitiveness as well of course)?
Playing devil's advocate for a moment - if a business chooses to set up in the UK because we're more competitive and Spain said 'we'll subsidise things here to compete' wouldn't we cry foul? In theory the anti-subsidy measures are applied to all member states in order to stop a complete distortion of the market.

 

[FanchesterCity]

Perhaps you mean the EU could have intervened? They could have increased tariffs on Chinese steel, however they chose not to do that.

How could our government have intervened? I'm genuinely interested.

The EU wanted to charge a levy of 66% on Chinese steel imports, but it was the UK who vetoed that rather ironically. Our government might have intervened, by not intervening (not exercising the veto)

 

[IanBishopsHaircut]

In theory the anti-subsidy measures are applied to all member states in order to stop a complete distortion of the market.

Again though...WTF has it got to do with them how we run our affairs?

 

[without a dream]

Perhaps you mean the EU could have intervened? They could have increased tariffs on Chinese steel, however they chose not to do that.

How could our government have intervened? I'm genuinely interested.

It was our government that stopped the EU increasing tarriffs, Cameron used our veto.

The Italians do it by investing to improve the 'environmental impact', the Germans lower energy prices and the French fund R&D.

If there were any desire at all from the Government to do so they could have done numerous things, they didn't want to.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Think most Brexiters realise the economy will take a hit, that's not really in depute. question is however,as soon as independence is acquired all those institutions would work towards a better model, if we stay in they will argue that we will defiantly suffer the same in a decreasing EU economy which has been stagnating and slowing for 15 years

I can understand and respect that point of view, although in my personal judgement, it would involve significant risk for unsubstantiated and possibly never to be realised rewards and is therefore a bad idea.

It's the "don't worry about a thing, it will be marvellous" brigade that seriously piss me off with (a) stupidity or (b) lies, delete as applicable.

 

[AlgarveBlu]

Germany France and Spain will no doubt be following the UK straight out the door of the U.K. Left the EU. Which would immediately ruin every inners argument about not being able to trade.

Each country would look for tariff free trade deals with each other which is what the EU should be.

France is the best bet out of those three - Spain are paralysed with economic woe and Germany still seem to have an immense sense of guilt after the last century so they feel they have an obligation to do something in Europe.

I wouldn't normally link anything to the express as in my opinion they have a tendency to blow everything out of proportion but this was the findings from the der telegraaf in Holland which had 88% wanting a referendum - http://www.express.co.uk/news/world...n-referendum-Holland-Netherlands-Brexit-Nexit

Loads of Dutch in the central Algarve where I'm based and they generally range from contempt to hate for the eu for what it's done to Holland - mainly immigration on this one though

This is the commissions greatest fear the UK referendum, much bigger than grexit fears - it really does have the capacity to blow the doors of with other countries wanting their say -

 

[FanchesterCity]

Again though...WTF has it got to do with them how we run our affairs?

Well - because that's the whole point of the union! We joined it knowing that it means we have to (as much as possible) act in unison to maintain stability.
If you join a union at work, then cut yourself your own individual deal with the employer, you've just undermined the effectiveness of the union. In which case, the union's not for you.
But, given we did join the EU, it's perfectly understandable why they start setting out the rules. I'm not saying I agree with the rule (or disagree) but that's what a union HAS to do by it's very nature.

 

[FanchesterCity]

France is the best bet out of those three - Spain are paralysed with economic woe and Germany still seem to have an immense sense of guilt after the last century so they feel they have an obligation to do something in Europe.

I wouldn't normally link anything to the express as in my opinion they have a tendency to blow everything out of proportion but this was the findings from the der telegraaf in Holland which had 88% wanting a referendum - http://www.express.co.uk/news/world...n-referendum-Holland-Netherlands-Brexit-Nexit

Loads of Dutch in the central Algarve where I'm based and they generally range from contempt to hate for the eu for what it's done to Holland - mainly immigration on this one though

This is the commissions greatest fear the UK referendum, much bigger than grexit fears - it really does have the capacity to blow the doors of with other countries wanting their say -

I agree, a UK exit is a nightmare for them. I'm not 100% convinced our exit will initiate an immediate domino effect - but it will be close, but the moment we start to show progress outside the EU, it will collapse. Equally, the moment we show signs of struggling, it will strengthen their case.

I suspect a decent proportion of the EU population might not wait to see what happens to the UK though - they may well just be spurred on by seeing us exit... adding more internal pressure within each nation to withdraw (but their governments will probably resist as long as they can hoping that we fail and thus public opinion will go back in favour of the EU).

 

[Chippy_boy]

France is the best bet out of those three - Spain are paralysed with economic woe and Germany still seem to have an immense sense of guilt after the last century so they feel they have an obligation to do something in Europe.

I wouldn't normally link anything to the express as in my opinion they have a tendency to blow everything out of proportion but this was the findings from the der telegraaf in Holland which had 88% wanting a referendum - http://www.express.co.uk/news/world...n-referendum-Holland-Netherlands-Brexit-Nexit

Loads of Dutch in the central Algarve where I'm based and they generally range from contempt to hate for the eu for what it's done to Holland - mainly immigration on this one though

This is the commissions greatest fear the UK referendum, much bigger than grexit fears - it really does have the capacity to blow the doors of with other countries wanting their say -

I agree with lots of this, but the other interpretation that cannot be ignored is that the EU will be forced to act as tough on us as they possibly can, in order to make other countries think twice about leaving or attempting to. It could go one of many ways this.

One this is for sure, if we leave they will definitely want things to go badly for us.

 

[AlgarveBlu]

I don't doubt the scepticism is on the rise. It's much harder to say if the public perception of the EU is accurate though.
Yes, Portugal, Italy, Spain, Greece and Ireland have suffered, but Italy and Spain's GDP still sees them in the top 11 nations. Poor by EU standards, but not by global standards.
I suppose the million dollar question is - how much worse (or better) would they have been outside the EU? - We'll never know. If we leave the EU though, I am absolutely sure we'll be the measure with which other nations determine the value of the EU. If we fall flat on our face in the next couple of years, then that will probably increase belief that the EU is worthwhile - it will deter others from leaving and Euro cynicism will decline. If we remain in a roughly similar state or better, then it's going to add incredible pressure to the EU to justify how it's benefitting its members and the cynicism will skyrocket.

In relation to the people and their views on the eu I'm not sure their relevant ranking in GDP terms would be of much baring in their decision, however, if your talking GDP per capita then yes as the higher this is then the more people have a good standard of living.

None of those countries are anywhere near the top ten even the uk, Germany and France. I am sure Switzerland and Norway are in the top five in the world which again is another indicator of how more relevant GDP per capita is a better barometer of EU sentiment as both countries have made it blatantly clear they want no part in joining the eu.

I read some time ago that Italy's economy has contracted to below it's pre-euro introduction in 2002 - that's quite a hard thing to get your head around really.

 

[FanchesterCity]

I agree with lots of this, but the other interpretation that cannot be ignored is that the EU will be forced to act as tough on us as they possibly can, in order to make other countries think twice about leaving or attempting to. It could go one of many ways this.

One this is for sure, if we leave they will definitely want things to go badly for us.

Precisely how I see it too.
It's a shame that market forces themselves will not dictate the success or failure of an exit, but politics will intervene on a grand scale.
I wouldn't like to say how much influence the German and French governments have on their businesses, but I'd imagine it's a least some, and possibly quite a bit... they will exert pressure to make things awkward for us.
It's hard to see such companies willing losing business just to help their governments though, but at the same time, we don't know what compensation / favours / pressure might be applied to make up for it.

 

[Helmet Cole]

It was our government that stopped the EU increasing tarriffs, Cameron used our veto.

The Italians do it by investing to improve the 'environmental impact', the Germans lower energy prices and the French fund R&D.

If there were any desire at all from the Government to do so they could have done numerous things, they didn't want to.

Bang on. There is more than one way to subsidise an industry. Protectionism is not nationalisation. Our govt have acted as spineless shit bags in all of this and cow towed to the Chinese.

 

[blueonblue]

But no, we can't manage to work in the EU because they're all intolerably corrupt and with less of a world view than us, and far more likely to make strategic business errors than us, the self appointed experts.
I support a club transformed by foreigners who've brought business acumen (and yes, finance) to our shores.

And that in a nutshell is why your totally wrong, the EU has NOTHING to do with any of that, its a self serving elite with its own agenda that has everything to do with power and control.
Nowhere on the out side will you find any voice that does not want to continue trading with European countries, just not under the ever descending jackboot of a corrupt bunch of c*nts hell bent on creating a super state for their own ends.

Try speaking to those people who you shared a beer with an see if they have a different take on the EU, France,Germany,Holland,Greece, and most of the rest of those countries have ever growing anti EU movements, are they all "Anti foreigner little Englanders" ?

 

[FanchesterCity]

In relation to the people and their views on the eu I'm not sure their relevant ranking in GDP terms would be of much baring in their decision, however, if your talking GDP per capita then yes as the higher this is then the more people have a good standard of living.

None of those countries are anywhere near the top ten even the uk, Germany and France. I am sure Switzerland and Norway are in the top five in the world which again is another indicator of how more relevant GDP per capita is a better barometer of EU sentiment as both countries have made it blatantly clear they want no part in joining the eu.

I read some time ago that Italy's economy has contracted to below it's pre-euro introduction in 2002 - that's quite a hard thing to get your head around really.

No I agree, it's no real measure of standard of living, and I am bloody sure disgruntled Spaniards, or even disgruntled Swiss care much about their ranking - only what they perceive as their own 'struggle / discomfort'. Not being able to afford the new Ferrari still pisses off the wealthy, and they'll still blame someone for that!

 

[Chippy_boy]

Precisely how I see it too.
It's a shame that market forces themselves will not dictate the success or failure of an exit, but politics will intervene on a grand scale.
I wouldn't like to say how much influence the German and French governments have on their businesses, but I'd imagine it's a least some, and possibly quite a bit... they will exert pressure to make things awkward for us.
It's hard to see such companies willing losing business just to help their governments though, but at the same time, we don't know what compensation / favours / pressure might be applied to make up for it.

I don't see that happening at all to be honest. I just think the EU will play extremely hardball on any trade negotiations, effectively making agreement impossible. I think we'll be forced to go it alone outside the FTA and will have to sell to the EU on the worst possible terms.

 

[Chippy_boy]

And that in a nutshell is why your totally wrong, the EU has NOTHING to do with any of that, its a self serving elite with its own agenda that has everything to do with power and control.
Nowhere on the out side will you find any voice that does not want to continue trading with European countries, just not under the ever descending jackboot of a corrupt bunch of c*nts hell bent on creating a super state for their own ends.

Try speaking to those people who you shared a beer with an see if they have a different take on the EU, France,Germany,Holland,Greece, and most of the rest of those countries have ever growing anti EU movements, are they all "Anti foreigner little Englanders" ?

So why is the answer not to collaborate with like-minded people in the EU and reform it from within? Why risk the prosperity of generations to come when a much lower risk option exists (if what you say is true, and I am inclined to agree that it is.)

 

[AlgarveBlu]

I agree with lots of this, but the other interpretation that cannot be ignored is that the EU will be forced to act as tough on us as they possibly can, in order to make other countries think twice about leaving or attempting to. It could go one of many ways this.

One this is for sure, if we leave they will definitely want things to go badly for us.

That's a definite - there will be a window between the announcement of Brexit that the eu will be spitting blood and the French will be the loudest with their threats to try and ward off the Le pen et al from using this result as a springboard for their own referendum. The Germans will just be thinking oh f*ck we're in trouble as we are going to have to align ourselves with Poland and other east European xenophobes to combat the socialist tendencies of the French and Italians.

 

[FanchesterCity]

And that in a nutshell is why your totally wrong, the EU has NOTHING to do with any of that, its a self serving elite with its own agenda that has everything to do with power and control.
Nowhere on the out side will you find any voice that does not want to continue trading with European countries, just not under the ever descending jackboot of a corrupt bunch of c*nts hell bent on creating a super state for their own ends.

Try speaking to those people who you shared a beer with an see if they have a different take on the EU, France,Germany,Holland,Greece, and most of the rest of those countries have ever growing anti EU movements, are they all "Anti foreigner little Englanders" ?

Who are these people?
Is is the Germans alone, or the French in collusion with them? are the Spanish in on it too? Wait, maybe it's all of them against us, even those two timing nice Dutch guys!!! They're all jealous of the UK and want to give up their own nationalities to be part of the Super State(tm) or SS for short, wait no, bad idea that acronym.

It's nonsense.

There will be without doubt, some self serving members, but they aren't all in collusion, so if Spain is self serving, France will be self serve in a different manner - they aren't all meeting one common agenda, it would be a whole mixed bunch of agendas, many contra to each other.

I have no doubt that there ARE mixed agendas - as there are in any union, there are within our own governments.

I don't believe a single person has suggested that nobody wants to trade with the EU - I've no idea where you got that notion from.

And of business friends in Europe - I've never believed any of them want to shaft me, they want to do business - continued business at that which calls for trust between both sides. It is easier for those companies to do that business if we're operating in the same system as them. They will STILL do business outside of it, of course they will - but the parameters of the deal change slightly, and it's generally less smooth outside the EU than inside it. That's not because of animosity between businesses, just additional small, but notable hurdles that have to be overcome - usually at cost to profitability on both sides.

 

[FanchesterCity]

That's a definite - there will be a window between the announcement of Brexit that the eu will be spitting blood and the French will be the loudest with their threats to try and ward off the Le pen et al from using this result as a springboard for their own referendum. The Germans will just be thinking oh f*ck we're in trouble as we are going to have to align ourselves with Poland and other east European xenophobes to combat the socialist tendencies of the French and Italians.

Germany and Poland - what could go wrong?