EU referendum

EU referendum

  • In

    Votes: 503 47.9%

  • Out

    Votes: 547 52.1%
  • Total voters
    1,050
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The number of national trade deals per nation is very small... even the USA only has 20:

It's hardly a who's who (not to do a disservice to those nations).

What the EU does do though is impose tariffs that vary depending on product, quantity and country of origin which is a form of selectively encouraging or hindering which products enter the EU and from where. Whether those are good filters, or bad ones is a matter of debate. The EU believes it's protecting its members in 'policing' things and at the same time, giving advantage to the businesses within the EU.

50% of our exports are to the EU though, so whilst being outside of them isn't a killer, we can't simply just start exporting elsewhere very easily. Over time, that can change, but it's not as simple as not selling car parts to Germany, instead we'll sell them to the USA. We'd have to adapt products and prices accordingly. But that's what business does right? - it just takes time.

Then there's the imports - same deal, most of them come from within the EU - we're heavily tied to them right now.

However people want to frame it, right now, roughly half of our entire international trade is with the EU, so any improvement or deterioration in our trading relationship with the EU has / will have a substantial impact short term. The optimistic view is that we need each other and even during an acrimonious split, neither wants to lose much, so a stalemate would be a fair outcome. The pessimistic view is that the EU has the edge over us, because it's acting as one block, and they are 50% of our entire market, whilst we are only 16% of theirs - that said, we are still their biggest single customer.
There is a third view though - and that is EU meltdown. If the EU collapses, then in theory it's every man for himself and the UK is a very strong position to take advantage. Of course, in such an event, it's very likely that the circumstances of individual members will change dramatically, in which case, it's a hell of market to predict. In that situation is less likely to be 'who comes out smelling of roses' and more likely to be 'who comes out the least injured'.

We should also remember that LOT of our exports are services, as well as goods. We aren't selling bananas here, we're selling highly specialised services in a lot of cases, services that don't transpose particularly well to Africa, or New Zealand, or a highly protectionist USA - even if they are services they could use.

If we leave the EU, then yes, we will no longer be shackled to them legally - just tied via ongoing business. But many of the other nations (or more accurately businesses within those nations) we might choose to start trading with will also be trading with the EU. They will then be treading very carefully not to get into deals that upset their other customer / supplier (the EU).

Interesting times...
 
Gaudion M said:
The IMF and the EU are two completely seperate things. If we left the EU we would still be in the IMF and still be lending money to nations in crisis. Exiting the IMF has not been suggested by anyone.
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The IMF and the EU are two completely seperate things. Agreed.
I don't think we should be contributing to either of the bodies, where the funds are (in the case of Greece) being used to pay off German and French Private Banks, or in the case of the Ukraine to support a puppet government, who are in the process of divvying up their Country to the requirements of Joe Bidens Son, Exxon, Monsanto, Royal Dutch Shell etc.. etc..
 
mcfc1632 said:
Well I am sure that we can all feel your joy and understand your warm feelings based on positive experiences. I too have worked in several European countries and also enjoyed being in many other countries around the world.

All that pink and fluffiness might explain why you as an Individual have highly positive feelings towards Europe - but it has fuck all to do with why someone should vote remain or leave.

Remain posters on here keep saying leave voters are voting for the wrong reasons - well you certainly are based on that 'heart moving story'
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Not really, it was clearly portrayed as melancholy and slightly tongue in cheek. However, yes, the experiences have been positive and doing with business in Europe's never felt difficult or hindered by prejudice. I worked for an American company working out of the UK doing business in Europe, and for a Swedish / Japanese company, working out of the UK, and the same applied.
I'm not voting in because I like Europeans. I'm voting in because I think EU businesses just want to get on doing what they do best - business and not politics, and the smoother the supply chain across all of the EU the better. With the UK outside of the EU, that supply chain gets hindered.
I think the EU has loads of failings, but I think the UK does too. Governments are governments, they come and go, as do their politicians. But I do think the EU has made EU trade a lot slicker.

I also like some EU nations greater concern about privacy and monopolies and would like the UK to express more concern about it. It's not the sole reason, but it's one of many factors that influence my decision.
 
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Lose 50,000+ jobs, pensions in danger, investors will f*ck off/wont come here, industries will go bankrupt, holidays will cost more, house prices will crash, ect ect.







Oh no, thats not the latest Call me dave speech, its the utter guff the Norwegians were bombarded with by their EU lobby, you know Norway, that little country of 5million people that is in the top five countries for prosperity SINCE they told the EU to f*ck right off, sound familiar ?
 
IanBishopsHaircut said:
I genuinely think we are going to leave...can feel it in my water...been speaking to a few co-workers and 70-30 are voting leave...if we don't...it's going to be very close
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hen thin
I get the same feeling most of the time. Although I then think there could be a last minute wave of second thoughts - which usually means 'caution' / stay.

For me the psychology of leaving is exciting - it's new, it's different, it could end up better - those are all sexy attributes a salesman might use.
Staying is caution and stability - valuable attributes, but not sexy ones.

And people love sex - even the British.
It's the morning after we aren't always as impressed by!
 
blueonblue said:
Lose 50,000+ jobs, pensions in danger, investors will f*ck off/wont come here, industries will go bankrupt, holidays will cost more, house prices will crash, ect ect.







Oh no, thats not the latest Call me dave speech, its the utter guff the Norwegians were bombarded with by their EU lobby, you know Norway, that little country of 5million people that is in the top five countries for prosperity SINCE they told the EU to f*ck right off, sound familiar ?
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The one that has 4.1% unemployment and rising despite such a low population?
Yes Norway's doing just fine though - I can't disagree with on that, but it does have oil. It exports approx 10 times more oil than any other product.
 
That does not change the same kind of lies they were told (That proved so wildly untrue) and we are now being fed, but while your bringing up their unemployment figures why not compare it to the average of the EU ?
 
blueonblue said:
That does not change the same kind of lies they were told (That proved so wildly untrue) and we are now being fed, but while your bringing up their unemployment figures why not compare it to the average of the EU ?
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It's very decent compared with the EU as a whole (because we have some shockers in the EU!), but for a population of 5m it's quite high - not least because so much revenue comes from oil which is very profitable for not many jobs.

Still, I didn't disagree with you - you CAN prosper and very well too. But Norway is a very exceptional country because of the oil.
 
blueonblue said:
Lose 50,000+ jobs, pensions in danger, investors will f*ck off/wont come here, industries will go bankrupt, holidays will cost more, house prices will crash, ect ect.







Oh no, thats not the latest Call me dave speech, its the utter guff the Norwegians were bombarded with by their EU lobby, you know Norway, that little country of 5million people that is in the top five countries for prosperity SINCE they told the EU to f*ck right off, sound familiar ?
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I've read the Nei til EU campaign and what it had to endure before they voted not to join and it is incredibly similar how the powers that be tried everything to terrify the Norwegians into joining. Calling them irrelevant, ignored by Europe, the job losses and they didn't listen, and has anything the pro-EU campaign come to fruition? Nothing at all. Norway thrives because it's free to pick and choose what parts of it's association with Europe benefits them, yet some politicians in the UK don't seem to want that freedom of choice. I wonder why.
 
I think there is hyperbole on both sides and it's making matters worse. it IS being used to scare, and there comes a point when if you overblow the fear, people stop believing any of the negatives.

I recall something similar when people changed to the EURO - prices would hike dramatically. But they never did. Here and there there were changes, but on the whole, it worked. In that instance is was moving towards unity rather than away from it, but still, the fear machine was in operation.
 
Mëtal Bikër said:
I've read the Nei til EU campaign and what it had to endure before they voted not to join and it is incredibly similar how the powers that be tried everything to terrify the Norwegians into joining. Calling them irrelevant, ignored by Europe, the job losses and they didn't listen, and has anything the pro-EU campaign come to fruition? Nothing at all. Norway thrives because it's free to pick and choose what parts of it's association with Europe benefits them, yet some politicians in the UK don't seem to want that freedom of choice. I wonder why.
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Norway thrives because of oil not because of freedom. 10 times more oil export than any other product. Now THAT's having virtually all your eggs in one very lucrative basket).
They have a very good fishing industry too, but dwarfed by the oil.
I do agree with everything else you've said though.

You might as well say 'look at Qatar, it seems to do very well for itself, and isn't a big nation'
 
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FanchesterCity said:
Norway thrives because of oil not because of freedom. 10 times more oil export than any other product. Now THAT's having virtually all your eggs in one very lucrative basket).
They have a very good fishing industry too, but dwarfed by the oil.
I do agree with everything else you've said though.
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Oil is important in the financial prosperity of the country. It thrives socially and democratically because of it's freedom to accept whatever EU regulations it chooses, rather than have them forced upon them. If Norway is presented with a directive or regulation it doesn't like or cannot see how it benefits them, they reject it.
 
If oil can do so much good for Norway...
It makes me wonder what oil could do for City!

Does anybody have any contacts in the oil industry? maybe anybody with a few bob to spare?

Thaksin, can you put the feelers out?
 
Mëtal Bikër said:
Oil is important in the financial prosperity of the country. It thrives socially and democratically because of it's freedom to accept whatever EU regulations it chooses, rather than have them forced upon them. If Norway is presented with a directive or regulation it doesn't like or cannot see how it benefits them, they reject it.
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I cant be arsed looking up the stats again, but was it one regulation (on postmen) rejected in 8 years or something similar?

edit I could be arsed - they have rejected one regulation

for the record, in 2014 they implemented 627 regulations

so one rejected, many thousands implemented. a few facts for balance
 
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DavidWhitesBoots said:
If you

Sent from my Elephone P8000 using Tapatalk
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can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:

If you can dream - and not make dreams your master;
If you can think - and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with worn-out tools:

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: 'Hold on!'

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
' Or walk with Kings - nor lose the common touch,
if neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man, my son!
 
west didsblue said:
can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:

If you can dream - and not make dreams your master;
If you can think - and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with worn-out tools:

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: 'Hold on!'

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
' Or walk with Kings - nor lose the common touch,
if neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man, my son!
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Sexist!


... but seriously that's excellent! You have a real talent, and must have worked Ruddy 'ard on it! ;-)
 
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