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Deleted member 77198
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We do miss a criminal amount of chances.
Expected goals is like looking into a crystal ball,it's bollocks
Not surprising that you'd think that, but it's a statistic used in all top clubs precisely because it's not bollocks.
How do they use it?
At what point do you make the decision/decimal about it being expected?
I suppose it varies from club to club how much each manager uses and is guided by their analytics department, but all aalysts love it, and many of the pioneers of it are ow at Opta or running places like StatsBomb who are hired by clubs especially for their analyitics.
The decimal number is taken from a database of millions of shots taken from that exact position. if 5% of shots taken from that spot go in, the xG is 0.05.
That is what I was getting at, like serge at Sunderland in the cup, no keeper 99.9% certain of scoring, but doesn't shoot when 3 yards wants it to come right down, ends up getting tackled without shooting. Worst miss I have ever seen, surely at least 0.95 expected but no shot.
Also thought stuff like opta and expected goals were more for fans as they are pretty basic. i know city hire a lot of staff to watch games, normally the last 9 of any opponent on video to analyse.