FA Cup 4th round draw - Palace (a)

[Corky]

We got Wycombe or Villa in the 4th round last year. Wycombe would have given us a better match in the end.

 

[SpiritofBurnden]

Are you for real..

You should address that question to some of the conspiracy theorists on here.

 

[deano ou812]

You should address that question to some of the conspiracy theorists on here.

Hahaha very good.

 

[SebastianBlue]

Were we the last ball of the round like during the CL draw (along with all our opponents)?

 

[aguero93:20]

Never being relegated is what keeps the paycheques rolling in.

That and commission on transfers.

 

[dronefromsector7G]

You're missing the point. You haven't drawn a Premier League club. You've drawn a Premier League club OR a League One club.

We've drawn the winners of your 3rd round tie, and Palace will be odds on to get through that tie.

 

[Corky]

We've drawn the winners of your 3rd round tie, and Palace will be odds on to get through that tie.

2/11 a bit longer than we have been in our 2013, 2014 and 2015 losses in the cup.

 

[oakiecokie]

Wasn't forest 8 years ago?

It was, but the main point I was making that even if we draw a lesser team we have a tendency now and again to fuck up.And I forgot to add Wigan to that list.

 

[growl]

dunno if you are a conspiracy theorist but I do know you struggle at maths, 250,000-1? Care to show your working out to Carol Vorderman

So "if" Palace go through to play us in the next round, it will be our 7th consecutive away tie against top flight opposition. The odds of drawing a Prem team away in 3rd round of the FA Cup is 6.63-1. This decreases to an average of 5.2-1 in 4th round and approx 3-1 in 5th round. The figures for 3rd and 4th rounds of League Cup are 4.133 and 3.333 respectively. City's last 6 ties, plus the "expected" match against Palace give the following probabilities:

6.63 x 6.63 x 5.2 x 5.2 x 3 x 4.133 x 3.333 = a staggering longshot of 49,120 to 1.

Admittedly this is not quite as enormous as my non-scientific "guess" of 250,000 to 1, but that impossible figure could well be reached in the quarter final. Ladies and gentlemen, place your bets please - but the odds are (heavily) in favour of the house. The only question is: who or what is the "house" in our cosy little non-conspiratorial world?

 

[oakiecokie]

Yes, he spent the first 40 years living on Mars Bars.

Amended for reality.