No, but each draw is equally random as the one before. The odds on us getting a PL team increase substantially every round (assuming PL teams win their fixtures) and at their longest are roughly 1/3 in the 3rd round. In the 4th round it goes down to somewhere between 1/2 and 1/3. Getting lots of PL teams in a row is hardly a massive surprise, is it?No shit sherlock.
But that does not mean a run of 10 heads is 50/50, does it.
If we have had a series of tough draws, that could be bad luck, It would start getting very suspicious if our rivals had received easy draws.
My impression is that Utd have had a series of very easy draws over the years, but how true is that. Chelsea too. They seem to forever be drawn against the likes of Posh at home
I've looked at the 21 consecutive draws since Notts County and not counting this last one (as we don't know if will be Bolton). 7 of them were 100% likely to get top 2 divisions as that's all there was and the others range from 66% chance and 94% chance. When you multiply it out it comes to 1 in 63.8 or 62.8:1.Not a mathematician but don't see how it can be 62 to 1.
If you take the first of those 18 it would be roughly a 37.5% chance of getting a team lower than the championship then you would have to calculate the other 17 times and multiply them all together. It would be one hell of an exercise as you would have to check every one of those 18 draws to see which teams were in them.
Anybody willing to give it a bash?
I'm not saying the draw is fixed or not, but in this day and age, why can't the ball numbers be drawn by computer
and put on a big screen. The 2 pundits could still be there and tell us what numbers have come out. Because
that's all they basically do, already.
*Edit. Meant to add. Hope our games not 3pm on Saturday it's nigh on impossible to find a
stream.
No, but each draw is equally random as the one before. The odds on us getting a PL team increase substantially every round (assuming PL teams win their fixtures) and at their longest are roughly 1/3 in the 3rd round. In the 4th round it goes down to somewhere between 1/2 and 1/3. Getting lots of PL teams in a row is hardly a massive surprise, is it?
I've looked at the 21 consecutive draws since Notts County and not counting this last one (as we don't know if will be Bolton). 7 of them were 100% likely to get top 2 divisions as that's all there was and the others range from 66% chance and 94% chance. When you multiply it out it comes to 1 in 63.8 or 62.8:1.
Edit: Missed one out. It's actually 94:1.
Furthermore if you look at it by round. Since Notts County we've been in round 3 six times and each time there's a 43/63 chance of drawing a side from the top two divisions. Over six years it works out as 9 to 1 against. For round 4, we've been there four times and it works out as about 3 to 1. For round 5, it's also four times and it's about evens. For rounds six seven and eight, there's been no lower league sides in it.
It's a pointless exercise looking retrospectively at a series of events and applying probabilities. Any club could do the same for any number of things and come up with something similar. It proves absolutely nothing unless the odds really are in the millions.As we thought. So 94:1 is not exactly earth-shatteringly bizarre, but we can add it to yet another in a long list of unfortunate "coincidences".
No, but each draw is equally random as the one before. The odds on us getting a PL team increase substantially every round (assuming PL teams win their fixtures) and at their longest are roughly 1/3 in the 3rd round. In the 4th round it goes down to somewhere between 1/2 and 1/3. Getting lots of PL teams in a row is hardly a massive surprise, is it?