I actually believe that under all the political posturing the aim of both major parties is to find a way to remain in the single market without having the rest of the shit that comes with that. I think there will be a financial cost to be paid for that but that shouldn't surprise anyone. Labour & Liberal Democrats are pretty open about that whereas the Tories are saying things like "Brexit means Brexit" and that they'd be prepared to walk away from a bad deal. So I think that the Tories would be least likely to pay something for a good deal but that's just my opinion. We'll see in 2 years!
Yes - we will see and I will avoid going into great detail on this thread, but in summary please think through this explanation:
If you are the EU and your preferences on Brexit are some or all of:
1. that you do not want the UK to leave at all, or if they are leaving
2. that you want it to take as long as possible and in the intervening time also that they pay their full dues and also pay a large exit bill at the end
3. that you are able to dictate the size of the large (largest) exit bill - entirely on your terms and therefore ensure that you (the EU) have no financial/economic exposure
4. that you are also able to place 'conditions' on the departing UK future, e.g. UK's adherence to the CCCTB, Oversight of ECJ etc.
5. that you most certainly must 'buy sufficient time', to plan for the enactment of mitigation actions for the consequences of the UK leaving - e.g. the EU's dependency on the City of London
6. etc.......
Given all those points are important - but that especially No. 5 is very pertinent at the moment and also remembering No 1 - that the EU do not want the UK to leave - then which approach is likely to play into the hands of the EU and hamstring the UK's negotiating team? Also, which one is likely to cause the EU to have to face up to levels of compromise - like an acceptable TA - that they would otherwise wish to have only put in place 100% on their terms
A) The one where the UK say that no matter what - we will not leave the EU without agreement on a deal, or
B) The one where the UK say that if the demands are clearly unfair and the negotiations are not being conducted in fair and mutually open manner that the UK would have to consider walking away?
Which of those two approaches is more likely to focus the EU's minds? Not aimed at you, but as a clue to others who have been dogmatically in denial, one of these approaches bends over and invites the EU to do whatever they want for as long as they want and the other would cause a great deal of concern and consternation to the EU and each of its individual 27 nations
Further discussion though is better undertaken on the A50 thread
